New South Wales racing will be headlined at Rosehill racecourse on Saturday for Golden Rose day which includes a stellar line up of three year olds with a full field taking part.
Apart from the Golden Rose there are some other very good races on the day including the Theo Marks Stakes and the Sheraco Stakes.
The current track condition is Good and with the forecast over Sydney for sun it is unlikely to change before race time.
Race One: Tab.com.au (bm80) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Reunite hit the line really well last start in what was a slowly run race which didn’t suit his pattern of running. He should improve with the increase of distance here and at $7.50 is a great bet to start the day and can be backed each way.
Don’t Back Me: Index Linked is coming off a good preparation although his first up record is poor having only placed once from four tries. Has drawn wide so at $3.50 i will be risking him on Saturday.
Big Danger: Hosting returned with an impressive win at Sandown and will likely go on with it this preparation. He will sit handy and be hard to beat again on Saturday.
Roughie: Mulaqen has had five starts first up and has placed in all of them. He will be first up on Saturday and i think he can continue that run at $16.
Race Two: Pj’s Irish Pub Parramatta-bm75 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Sail was unlucky first up when never getting a run and should have finished much closer. She has a good second up record winning her only try and at $10 i think she will go very close on Saturday.
Don’t Back Me: Aliyana was disappointing last start and i doubt dropping back in distance here will see her back in the winners stall. She goes up in weight from that run and has drawn wide so the $7 being bet for her looks bad value.
Big Danger: Footy Fan won easily last start after an unlucky run behind The Gallows at Hawkesbury. Will get in the weights well with the 3kg claim and looks a big danger in the race at good odds of $8.
Roughie: Marmadane got shuffled back in her run last start and wasn’t beaten far and in my opinion should have won the race. She drops in weight here and with some luck from the wide barrier she will go close at $12.
Race Three: The Paslode (bm79) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Reflectance finds a much easier race here and he has shown plenty of potential although has been placed in races he probably didn’t have the class to win. Will have to carry a big weight and will need some luck from the wide barrier but this is by far his easiest task to date.
Don’t Back Me: Green Beret beat a few of these last start although he had all of the favours leading and giving a good kick in a relatively slowly run race. From that run i think some of the horses behind him will beat him in this race so i will be risking him at $5.
Big Danger: Agent will carry the top weight in the race although his record over the distance is very good having won two from six tries and been placed on thr four other occasions. His run last start suggested he would be winning in similar grade next start which he is in.
Roughie: Living On A Prayer has been racing against easier company although his first up record is very good having won three from three. He is first up on Saturday thus has to be included at big odds of $17.
Race Four: Mcgrath Estate Agents (bm75) 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Ecuador carried a big weight last start and well very well at Canterbury against a few here and he looks to have the measure of this rivals again in what is a weak field.
Don’t Back Me: Acropolis is the only other runner outside of the favourite in single figures for the race and i doubt he can win. He got an easy time in front last start which is why he won and i doubt he will get that on Saturday.
Big Danger: Ragtime Cowboy Joe will need a bit of luck from the wide barrier although he is likely to go forward in the race. He always proves hard to run down and with the drop in weight here he will go close at big odds of $17.
Roughie: Multilateral hit the line well behind Ecuador last start and will improve from that run here. Looks like a big player in the race coming out of the form race so the $12 looks great value.
Race Five: Sebring Theo Marks Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Rain Affair was beaten as an odds on favourite last start but it wasn’t that bad of a run after being pressured throughout the race. Will go forward again on Saturday and against a weaker field will be hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Your Honour has won four from five although this is a big step up in grade from those wins and id prefer to risk him at the odds until he proves he can much it against horses of this quality.
Big Danger: Taxmeifyoucan goes into this race with a massive change i feel which makes the $26 look great value. He has a good first up record having placed at all three tries and has won over the distance. From the barrier he will get a sit behind the leaders in the race and with 53kg on his back he will be hard to hold off and run down in the straight.
Roughie: Someday was a little disappointing in his first up run last start and he will improve with the run under his belt. Looks to be more speed in this race which will suit and he will be hitting the line well late at double figure odds.
Race Six: Sharp Sheraco Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Dystopia flies first up which was outlined bu her run last preparation in The Galaxy when running fourth. If she can go close to that first up run here she will be winning at good odds of $10.
Don’t Back Me: Ichihara disappointed me last start when i thought she had a good chance of winning. She got an easy lead in that race and with the light weight she had every chance. Goes up in weight here and meets a tough field thus at $6 i wont be including her.
Big Danger: Appearance is the class runner of the race and she races well first up which she is on Saturday after being scratched a fortnight ago. She will need some luck from barrier 10 although class often prevails.
Roughie: Driefontein hasn’t lived up to her Magic Millions Classic win although i thought she showed enough last preparation to be competitive in some feature races over the Spring and this race suits her. She goes well fresh and likes the distance. Currently $12 in betting and she looks one of the winning chances in the race.
Race Seven: Golden Rose Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Criterion returned with an okay run first up when not really getting any luck throughout the race being posted 4 wide. He will improve with the extra distance here and the $51 on offer looks like massive overs for a runner who has a very good chance of winning.
Don’t Back Me: Prince Harada’s connections paid the late entry fee so they must have some confidence although i couldn’t have him on Saturday especially with the inside barrier. He will sit mid field and will need a lot of luck to be in the finish so at $4.80 ill be leaving him out.
Big Danger: Fast ‘n’ Rocking finally broke his maiden status last start after placing in some very good races throughout his career. He will improve with the step up in distance here and after eight starts with a win i think he can make it back to back victories on Saturday.
Roughie: Drago was very good first up and the extra distance here will suit him more so. He will jump from a wide barrier but will go back in the run anyways and with some speed in the race he will be one of the horses hitting the line well late at $10.
Race Eight: Kingston Town Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Pelicano has had three starts over the distance for three wins and he races best third up which he is on Saturday. He is weighted well here and from barrier 8 he will get a good run throughout the race. happy to take the $9 on offer as i think he will shorten come race time.
Don’t Back Me: Prince Cheri won well last start although this is a much tougher field so at $3.50 in betting i think he is unders especially as he will have to overcome a wide barrier and is likely to be posted wide.
Big Danger: Honorius disappointed me last start when i thought he was a very good winning chance. Happy to forgive that run and with the increase in distance in this race his chances should improve. Currently a good $9.50 chance in betting and is likely to start shorter.
Roughie: Polish Knight has returned well and in the past has shown the quality he possesses. Will get an easy run from the inside barrier and with a bit of luck he will go very close. Will get back in the run and will be hitting the line hard late.
Best Bet: Rain Affair
Next Best: Pelicano
Best Roughie: Criterion
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