14/7/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont

The Belmont Carnival continues on Saturday where the feature race is the inaugural running of the Swan River Vase (2200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

1 Kelly’s Callisto (Bet Now: $2.70) for me. I think back to 1300m is perfect for this horse. Was on him a fortnight back over 1400m here where he took on Special Reward and did a super job to lead all the way, though it was the bob of the head going his way being the difference. Should lead or be near the speed again, claim for Kirby, good draw…he’ll do me.

2 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $1.95) looks a pretty good prospect. He debuted a couple of Wednesdays back at this track/distance on a very wet track and he lapped up the conditions, bolting in under Mitch Pateman, and though the time was nothing flash, you just have to trust you eye I think in the dominance.

10 Snowchino (Bet Now: $17.00) was hard in the market when debuting last Wednesday over 1200m and probably cost himself the win IMO by just wanting to overdo things a touch in front, which left him gassed at the end when second to Burgoyne. Wide gate to overcome but the good lead is that the stable finds Pike to steer.

2 Cardup Legend (Bet Now: $41.00) might be one more run away, but have to have something small each way on him. Resumed three weeks back at this track/distance, his first run in over two years. On the turn he loomed as a serious winning chance but his condition just looked to give out late. Might need one more, but if they go quick in front, he could well be dangerous late.

4 Deep Cover (Bet Now: $3.60) looks the obvious. Both runs this time in have come at this track/distance, the latest being three weeks ago when doing a power of work out wide yet fought on really well behind Misty Metal, who bolted up last Saturday to frank the form. Pike on from a good draw, he’s very likeable.

1 I Am Incredible (Bet Now: $4.40) is on the seven day back up after racing over this track/distance last Saturday where he was a bit keen on speed outside the leader and just petered out of it late when fourth to the low flying Ambiente. Back to this level looks ideal and he doesn’t have to sit so close to the speed. Definite chance.

1 Gatting (Bet Now: $3.00) for me, just, in what does look a two horse race. He is on the seven day back up after racing in the Strickland last Saturday where he attempted to lead all the way but like most of this prep, has been no match for Material Man and Pounamu. Leads for fun this time around and should take some beating.

4 At The Ready (Bet Now: $2.90) looks the clear and perhaps only threat. He too comes through the Strickland last Saturday and I thought his effort was very good against the tempo, closing off to run fourth. Will be interesting to see what Knuckey does from the good draw, whether he takes advantage or not.

6 Dudemanbro (Bet Now: $4.80) is four weeks between runs for Justin Warwick since racing over 2100m here where he got a mile out of his ground in a slowly run affair and given he only has the one gear, he was never likely behind Come Play With Me, who has obviously franked the form. Tempo again the issue, but he’ll keep batting away.

If ever a horse deserved a win, it was 7 Seeker (Bet Now: $7.00) and it came at this track/distance two weeks ago. Whiting had him in a beaut spot off a fast pace and once presented with clear air, he got the job done. Had a little think but put them away well enough. That should do his confidence the world of good and is one of the hardest to beat.

6 Snow Lord (Bet Now: $4.00) is three weeks between runs since racing over 1000m here and I thought his effort behind Ambiente was just fair. Thought he had his chance to do more but he just kept at the same speed really behind the in form gelding. Interesting he is at 1200m, but the freshen up and 1200m instead of 1000m tells me there is intent.

8 Swift Sis (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Kalgoorlie specialist who has placed at Listed level in town recently so we know the talent is there. Last three runs have come at Kalgoorlie where she has let the punters down after looking well placed each start. Another that needs to tick the 1200m box, but she tries hard and rarely runs a bad race.

Buttering up on 2 Street Fury (Bet Now: $3.00). Was keen on this filly when she resumed over 1000m here two weeks ago but unfortunately she was tardy away from the gates and had too much ground to make up, though she got very close to knocking off Thunderstrut. Just needs a clean jump and clear air to be beating these IMO.

1 Disruptive (Bet Now: $3.20) is a talented gelding for Lindsey Smith who strung together a couple of sharp wins to kick off the prep before racing over 1400m here a fortnight back where he set a decent tempo in front and just felt the pinch late when third to Rockon Tommy. Back to 1200m, Blinkers FT and inside draw. Plenty to like.

4 Pearl Trade (Bet Now: $7.00) could be the sharp improver. Market said she only had three legs when racing over 1000m here four weeks and it was right as she really failed to come on behind impressive winner Danny George. I think up to 1200m is a big tick for this girl and if they go hard in front, she’ll be one of a couple having last say.

Takes on the older horses but I like the way 6 Lickety Split (Bet Now: $7.00) is going about it for David Harrison. Liked the way he won last Wednesday at this track/distance. Had the box seat run throughout before angling into clear and despite taking a little while to get going, he finished off with purpose to win. Harder here, but happy to be with him.

1 Atlanta Blue (Bet Now: $2.20) is going really well at the moment for Jason Pateman but now just needs to put a win on the board. Ran over 1300m here two weeks ago and ran home very well late off the slow tempo when second to Great Again, who won last Saturday to tick that form. Like him back up to 1400m.

3 Stoicism (Bet Now: $18.00) is the big watch. Very talented gelding that is first up for Martin Allan. His best will probably come over the mile and even 1800m, but he does have a very good 1400m record and is 2/3 when produced first up. Quiet trial here a couple of weeks back but if there is any market push, I want to have something on.

5 Ragnar’s Saga (Bet Now: $7.50) for me. I like that the stable back him up immediately after resuming last Saturday over 1000m here where he didn’t get the greatest amount of luck in the straight when appearing to have decent running behind Ambiente. Good second up record and is much better suited at 1200m. Just needs to overcome the draw.

9 Honny Be Good (Bet Now: $3.20) has been quite good this time in for Dan Morton but she is getting closer and closer to her D-Day. Needs to get a win soon. Got a mile back at this track/distance last Wednesday but savaged the line through the field to run a close up second to Oregon Bronze. Good draw with Pike steering, she’s likeable.

12 Glimmer Girl (Bet Now: $9.50) trialled up really well for Martin Allan prior to resuming at this track/distance last Saturday where she got too far back in the run but I liked the way she closed off her race behind an in form mare in Misty Metal. Tricky draw to overcome, but there appears to be good speed and is a second up winner.

5 Tellem We’re Comin (Bet Now: $1.70) should send punters home on a happy note. 2/2 this time, resuming over 1300m here before backing up a week later and being dynamic at this trip, charging from the back to win like a good horse. Can only see upside with him and I think only bad luck is in the way of him making it 3/3.

11 Necklet (Bet Now: $6.00) is three weeks between runs for Fred Kersley since contesting the Belmont Guineas where she got well back on the rail before getting the inside splits and you’d have to say she had her chance to win when third to Street Prosecutor. Query is her at 1600m, but she’s got brilliance on her side.

15 Scooner (Bet Now: $51.00) is a big watch. Stephen Miller trains this import, who had a failed stint with Chris Waller but has really found form since coming to WA. He hasn’t raced sinceApril 1 when finishing midfield in the Albany Cup behind Push To Pass. Good fresh horse and liked the way he trialled last week at Lark Hill.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Tellem We’re Comin

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Street Fury

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 2 Cardup Legend

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg Three: 5, 9, 10, 12

Leg Four: 5

$50 Investment= 312.50% of the dividend if successful

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