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Seven races will be run and won at Warwick Farm on Monday. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:50) Robrick Lodge Mdn Hcp 1200m

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Back Me

I’m with 5 Rebel Shadow (Bet Now: $5.50) in the opener. Gary Portelli trained colt that debuted at Canterbury and was very good late from off the speed when second to a likely type in Cape Breton, who won last Saturday at Rosehill. Bit surprised $6/thereabouts is on offer. I’d have him closer to $4.

Danger

1 Tyrol (Bet Now: $3.00) is a son of Snitzel for the Ryan/Alexiou camp that is on debut. He has had three trials to get ready for start one, winning all three and looking to go about his business quite nicely. Stable finds J Mac to steer and there has been strong early market support, so he commands respect.

Long Shot

6 Air Of Alsace (Bet Now: $21.00) is having start one for Jason Coyle and could be a sneaky chance at a decent price. This filly ran fourth in her latest trial, a trial won by Tyrol, who to be fair did go better to the eye, but this girl did respond when pushed out. She’ll likely ease back and finish off late.

Race 2. (13:25) Xxxx (bm72) 2400m

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Back Me

The significant jockey upgrade is swinging me towards 5 Sky Horse (Bet Now: $3.60), who ran over 2400m at Randwick last time out. Thought young Jones rode a good race on the mare. She was honest and tried hard behind No Compromise. Gets Bowman steering and overall, this race is thin.

Danger

1 Kaapfever (Bet Now: $6.50) saves his best for his home track here and with the claim, gee he gets in well given his recent form, which has mostly been in Stakes grade where he has been far from disgraced for the most part. Two schools of thought him dropping back to this level. Either a) he’s going no good so drop back to his right level or b) the stable want to fatten their pockets. Blinkers back on, he’ll take beating.

Long Shot

8 Sir Aglovale (Bet Now: $9.00) is on the quick back up for Chris Waller after racing at Canterbury on Wednesday. He didn’t really fire a shot and was quite plain I thought behind Rules Don’t Apply, but if there is one stable that you can trust with a quick back up, it is Chris Waller.

Race 3. (14:00) Bowermans Furniture (bm64) 1300m

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Back Me

Like 7 Nikau (Bet Now: $4.60) here. 2/2 this time in, resuming with a strong maiden win at Kembla before having five weeks off and racing at Newcastle where she had a suck run near the speed before Reith pushed the button and despite being challenged, she found plenty and was too good. Harder here, but like the way she’s going about it.

Danger

8 Savoir Faire (Bet Now: $5.50) is a John Thompson trained filly that was well supported when debuting in a 1200m maiden here. Got into a tricky spot, but really attacked the line when clear and got up to win. Drawn out, which is ideal when this track has give in it, and the scratchings have lowered the depth of this field.

Long Shot

4 Centimental (Bet Now: $8.00) is hit and miss but her best is good enough to be dangerous. Toughed it out best to win two back at Wyong when well supported. She then raced at Canterbury when near the speed and tired late behind Dynamic Impact. Gets J Mac from an inside gate, so has to be respected.

Race 4. (14:35) China Horse Club (bm64) 1600m

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Back Me

Tricky race to sort out with confidence. Landed each way with 5 Jimmy’s Dream (Bet Now: $5.50). He comes here off the back of a last start maiden win at Kembla where he wore down Captivare, and to be fair, I could drink a dozen Canadian Clubs and still wear down Captivare, so that isn’t something glowing on a race record CV, but he is in a good camp that will appreciate a truly run mile and will be on speed.

Danger

6 Kibosh (Bet Now: $1.95) looks hard to beat, but gee she’s short enough. That said, she did spank them at Kembla Grange last time out on testing ground, seemingly loving the conditions under Rachel King. Gets Jones and his 3kg claim, with a wet track…set up is perfect. Knock is the price.

Long Shot

1 Cadenabbia (Bet Now: $4.00) is a winner at the mile and I think he is looking for that. Both runs this time in have come at this track, winning fresh over 1300m before a solid effort over 1400m. Gets in well after the claim and should land in a lovely spot from the draw. Hard to beat.

Race 5. (15:10) Vinery Stud (bm72) 1400m

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Back Me

I’m amazed 11 Salsonic (Bet Now: $9.50) is double figures. Hasn’t won in a long time, but I reckon he’s flying this prep. Real eye catcher fresh at Hawkesbury behind Impasse before going to the Kenso track where he was good late behind a Stakes class mare of the future IMO, Katalin. On his home track, significant jockey upgrade and the track should dry out with no rain from Friday (time of writing) to Monday. I’m really keen on his chances.

Danger

8 Rubamos (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Chris Waller trained three year old that comes back to midweek grade after racing at Saturday level last time out, where he was on speed and fought on pretty well behind stablemate Oscar Zulu. Is a winner at the track, will be near the speed and giving plenty.

Long Shot

1 Knight (Bet Now: $16.00) deserves another chance. Had trialled up quite well prior to resuming at Randwick where he just went way too keen in the run and left himself with nothing left for the straight, so forget he went then. Off the trials, he can run a much improved race here.

Race 6. (15:45) Blue Point @ Darley (bm72) 1400m

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Back Me

7 Daphne Jean (Bet Now: $4.20) looks to have her share of talent for Kim Waugh and I think can measure up in town. Loved the way she attacked the line from off the speed to win fresh at Gosford, producing some of the better late splits of the meeting in getting the job done. This is a winnable metro race with her best.

Danger

4 St Covet’s Spirit (Bet Now: $3.60) has the class to do a number on these. Problem is the last time she won, Moses was parting the sea. It’s been a long time since she has greeted the judge first but this is one of the weaker races she has contested during that time, and she does get J Mac, so she has a bit going for her.

Long Shot

3 Serena (Bet Now: $23.00) is a former Kiwi mare who has had a couple of runs for Robert Pearse and I think for the first time, she is placed to advantage. Both runs this time in have come at Saturday grade where she has never really been a winning threat, but has been far from disgraced. Knockout chance for sure.

Race 7. (16:20) Tab (bm72) 1200m

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Back Me

7 Selburose (Bet Now: $3.50) for me in the get out. Chris Waller trained filly that gets J Mac to steer and with Blinkers on first time for her return, the signs are there to suggest this is a race with intent. Last raced during the Championships in the PJ Bell when outclassed. Trial was a nice piece of work, lands in a plum spot from the draw and has a touch of quality.

Danger

8 Van Giz (Bet Now: $4.50) should prove hard to beat for Bjorn Baker. Loved the way she attacked the line to win here last time out, with J Mac really getting the best out of her late to win. He jumps off to ride Selburose and though drawn wide, I do think Van Giz can get three wide cover from the chute and launch late.

Long Shot

Market watch for sure with 10 Bowery Breeze (Bet Now: $8.00), a Paul Cave trained mare that resumes. She has always shown city class ability but for the most part, things haven’t fallen into place for her. Tongue tie goes on for her return, she’s trialled well…a win wouldn’t shock at all.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Five Number 11 Salsonic

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Rebel Shadow

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 5 Jimmy’s Dream

[quaddegap]

Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8

Leg Two: 11

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7

Leg Four: 7, 8, 10, 11

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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