A strong card of racing has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday, and while there are no feature races, the depth is once again very strong. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:00pm) : TAB.com.au Handicap 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: We’re Sure (Best Odds: $9.00) on top for me here. He debuted at Gosford and was very impressive I thought, coming from off the speed and charging home late to savage the line and winning with real purpose and authority. He is a beautifully bred galloper who looks to have enormous talent and should prove hard to beat here.
Big Danger: Shards (Best Odds: $2.05) is a handy colt for Godolphin who has had two starts for two placings, with the latest coming over this track/distance when taking ground late off Press Statement, beaten a half length. We saw what Press Statement did in the J J Atkins last weekend, so that it is outstanding form for this and he should prove awfully hard to hold out.
Roughie: Strathaird (Best Odds: $41.00) is a Paul Perry trained colt who got his maiden out of the way last time out at Taree, bolting in by over three lengths, and while the form probably isn’t strong, he did run solid time, and in fact the fastest time of the day across four races over that distance. He’ll be up on speed and could well pinch a first four spot with luck in running.
Race Two (12:35pm) : McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (75) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Leaning towards Grunderzeit (Best Odds: $3.60). He scored a strong first up win at Canterbury before coming here and this track/distance and sticking on very well when fourth to Stakes winner Savoureux. He looks ready to show his best now third up from a spell, and third up last time in, he ran behind Gold Seventy Seven. This looks a suitable target for this Godolphin colt.
Big Danger: Lockroy (Best Odds: $11.00) has returned in great order but just can’t quite crack it for a win. Tommy Berry has given him peach steers at each run, but the horse just can’t quite finish the race off. Each of those runs has been at 1100m at Canterbury, but all on wet tracks. If he gets a firmer surface here, I think he will run 1200m, and that makes him a dangerous prospect here.
Roughie: Klammer (Best Odds: $21.00) resumed at Canterbury in a race Lockroy ran second in and it’s best to just forget the run given he was three and four wide no cover for the entire journey and rightfully dropped out to finish second last. His form from the Spring was excellent, and second up last time in, he ran in the Roman Consul behind Brazen Beau, and though he finished last, he was only beaten three lengths by a horse who is a multiple Group l winner and bound for International glory. Definite improver with better luck.
Race Three (1:10pm) : More Than Ready @ Vinery Handicap (75) 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Poncherello (Best Odds: $9.00) won his first two starts in impressive fashion before going to Hawkesbury and beating all bar Sacred Journey, and the run was quite strong considering he was carrying 59kg at just start number three against the older horses. Back to his own age now, minimum weight and trained on the track.
Big Danger: Makeadane (Best Odds: $9.00) tried very hard last time out at Canterbury when running third to Banksters Bonus over 1900m, beaten just over three lengths. He ran well, but I don’t think staying is his caper at this stage of his career, so back to 1500m looks ideal, draws well and should be in the finish.
Roughie: Double Happy (Best Odds: $9.50) finished ninth in that Banksters Bonus race mentioned above and he was simply awful, but that track really suited horses near the inside and on speed, so best to forgive and forget. He was due to run at Canterbury on Wednesday, but was scratched in preference of this harder assignment, so I like the stable confidence.
Race Four (1:45pm) : TAB Rewards Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Mirage (Best Odds: $3.40) attempted to lead all the way at Randwick last time out, and looked set for victory, but he decided to throw the race away by veering out and pretty much ending up on the outside fence. He was ordered to trial and he did that at Warwick Farm, where he led all the way and won by a space. He is trained here, so hopefully with better racing manners, he can win.
Big Danger: Mighty Lucky (Best Odds: $8.50) is on the quick back up after running in the Hawkesbury Cup on Saturday and he was quite good I thought considering he sat three wide no cover on speed, and he was only beaten four lengths. Draws a good gate here, and that happened two back and he nearly beat You’ll Never, who he meets 2kg better at the weights for a half length defeat.
Roughie: Eigelstein (Best Odds: $10.00) resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back and worked home well from the back to run fourth to You’ll Never, beaten just under two lengths. He worked home pretty well second up last time in behind Coolring, so I am expecting him to be very competitive here.
Race Five (2:25pm) : Cellarbrations Handicap (85) 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Wonderbolt (Best Odds: $3.50) on top for me. He resumed after a nine month spell at Randwick over 1000m and worked home strongly when running second to Quartzite, beaten just under two lengths on a day where it was very hard to come wide and make up significant ground. He bolted in second up last time in and the trials leading in to the resumption run were fantastic. Hard to beat here, especially with the likely hot tempo.
Big Danger: Kristy Lee (Best Odds: $7.50) resumes here for Chris Waller. Hasn’t been sighted since March when racing behind Griante at Stakes level, but she looks on target for a good prep after a strong trial effort earlier in the week behind proven Group performer, Dothraki. Can run well fresh and doesn’t mind some give in the track.
Roughie: The value runner here at odds is Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $19.00), who was specked at odds when running over 1200m here a fortnight back, and he simply couldn’t get into the race, finishing second last behind Stakes winner Aussies Love Sport. He is hard to follow, as we all know, but he is better than his last start, and an improved showing wouldn’t surprise.
Race Six (3:05pm) : Schweppes Handicap 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Ecuador (Best Odds: $3.20) on top for me here in a tough race. He ran over 1800m here a couple of weeks back and was beautifully rated in front by Danny Beasley to bolt in and bounce back to solid winning form. He looks suited by the rise to 2000m, loves Rosehill and should take some running down, especially if he dominates from the front.
Big Danger: Mr One Eleven (Best Odds: $10.00) stormed home at bolters odds to run a narrow second to Time To Test first up over 1500m here, then he ran sixth behind Vergara in what was a strange run given 300m out he was going to run last, then he picked up and savaged the line in restricted room. He is a definite knockout chance here.
Roughie: The old boy Phrases (Best Odds: $101.00) has been simply just awful in recent times, but this horse just always bobs up when you least expect it. Serg Lisnyy rides this horse well and has had success before on the gelding. Should roll forward from the gate, and he could perhaps sneak a first four spot at bolters odds.
Race Seven (3:45pm) : TAB Place Multi Handicap (85) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Race depleted by scratchings. With that being the case, I’ll put Rockalong (Best Odds: $10.00) on top. He is a former import who has had two runs now for Paul Perry. He needed the run first up at Scone before coming here a fortnight back over 1200m and working home well late when fourth to Aussies Love Sport, beaten just over two lengths. There is plenty of upside with him, and Thomas Huet really has a knack with Paul Perry runners, as we saw yesterday at Muswellbrook. Great each way bet for mine.
Big Danger: Aussies Love Sport (Best Odds: $7.00) bounced back to winning form with a strong win over 1200m here two weeks back, sitting off the speed and letting down powerfully over the concluding stages. Remains at the same weight thanks to the claim for Winona Costin, and though drawn awkwardly, he should be in the finish.
Roughie: Lunar Rise (Best Odds: $17.00) worked home well two back behind You’ll Never before racing here over 1500m two weeks ago and just wasn’t suited by the slow tempo when fifth to all the way winner Vergara. He is better than that, Shinn rides, drawn well…definite chance.
Race Eight (4:25pm) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (85) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Sticking fat with Fiftyshadesofgrey (Best Odds: $6.00), who ran here on Monday and was completely luckless when running second to all the way winner Momma’s Snitzel given she was ridden for luck along the rail in the straight and never got a clear crack at them. She carried 60.5kg that afternoon and now tumbles to 54kg. Fast tempo, up in trip, give in the ground…keen.
Big Danger: Two Blue (Best Odds: $8.50) resumed over 1200m here a couple of weeks back and battled away quite nicely when fifth to impressive winner Aussie’s Love Sport, beaten 2.5L. She should take good improvement from that outing and second up last time in, she was narrowly beaten by Turquoise King, beaten just under a length, and that horse went on to Stakes level. The last time she raced against the fillies and mares was the Dark Jewel Classic last year. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Breakfast In Bed (Best Odds: $9.00) resumes here for John Sargent after formerly being with Davd Vandyke. He hasn’t raced since the Autumn in the Millie Fox (1300m) when sixth to Catkins, beaten just under five lengths. Recent trial behind Ball Of Muscle was fantastic, and that form has obviously been franked. Hard to beat.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 10 Fityshadesofgrey
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Mirage
VALUE: Race One Number 3 We're Sure
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 8, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 10, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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