Group l racing in 2016 kicks off this Saturday at Caulfield with the $400,000 CF Orr Stakes (1400m), with a star studded field assembled. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:30) : Thebigscreencompany.com.au Handicap (96) 1800m:
Back Me: 3 Tashbeeh (Best Odds: $2.90) has been up for a while, but continues to race very well. He ran over 2000m at Flemington last time out and toughed it out very strongly to win narrowly but impressively. Back to 1800m looks perfect and he strikes a winnable race.
Big Danger: 9 Abbasso (Best Odds: $4.50) ran over the mile at Moonee Valley three weeks back and ran on alright late in the piece behind Tuff Host, who ran well last Saturday here, so the form reads alright for this, he has a stack of upside and Oliver takes over.
Roughie: 7 Fast And Free (Best Odds: $7.50) ran over 1700m here last time out and was a bit unlucky not to win when a close up third to Tuscan Fire. He got held up a touch in the straight when appearing to travel well. He is knocking on the door to win a race.
Race Two (14:00) : Kevin Hayes Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Mossin’ Around (Best Odds: $3.10) for me here in what looks a really good race. This John Thompson trained filly comes through the Inglis Dash at Flemington where she ran a game second to Hellbent. Bit harder here, but there is plenty to like about her, hard fit and will appreciate the step back up to 1200m.
Big Danger: 2 Risque (Best Odds: $2.90) is a classy filly who makes her Australian debut for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. Her form overseas, though she is a Group l winner, is very poor, so that’s the query, but as stated, she has class and she wouldn’t have been purchased for nothing.
Roughie: 7 Safariann (Best Odds: $13.00) was terrible first up at Geelong, then was much better down the straight at Flemington when running a game fifth to Heatherly, beaten just under three lengths. Returns to her home track, which is ideal, and she should be ready fitness wise, plus she has looked very good at the jump outs between runs.
Race Three (14:30) : Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (Fillies) 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Concealer (Best Odds: $8.00) on top. She debuted down the straight on Cup Day and produced a brilliant turn of foot to win impressively. Spelled straight after and she had a jump out at Flemington last Friday and looked outstanding. Looks ready to rumble for this, and indeed the Blue Diamond itself.
Big Danger: 3 Calliope (Best Odds: $3.00) debuted in the Gimcrack back in October and for mine still holds the title as the best two year old performance of the season. Her finish that day was unbelievable. Hasn’t caught my attention at the jump outs, but on form, she is too good to ignore.
Roughie: 7 Samara Dancer (Best Odds: $6.50) resumes here for Phillip Stokes. She had one run in November and absolutely bolted in, winning with ease. Trialled last Friday at Morphettville and bolted up there also, winning by nearly five lengths. Fastest time of the morning also, which is always a good lead for mine.
Race Four (15:00) : Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (C&G) 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Star Turn (Best Odds: $4.60) resumes here for Team Hawkes off the back of two runs during the Spring, with the second one being a dominant win at Randwick. He trialled well at Warwick Farm recently, and looks to have really strengthened up and furnished into a lovely colt.
Big Danger: 7 Flying Artie (Best Odds: $3.50) is the talked up horse because Oliver rides and he hasn’t committed to Extreme Choice. Flying Artie had one, on Stakes Day during Cup Week where he ran a brave second to Power Trip. Jump outs have been very impressive, and if he can get away cleaner, he should get over I think and prove hard to beat.
Roughie: 9 China Dream (Best Odds: $26.00) debuted here five weeks back and ran well behind The Seductress considering he was wide no cover for the entire trip. Looked sharp in a jump out here last Tuesday, so don’t be surprised to see him measure up here.
Race Five (15:30) : Schweppes Rubiton Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 10 Lake Geneva (Best Odds: $8.00) for me here. She can be a bit hit and miss, but there was a bit to like her when she ran during the Melbourne Spring. Recent Flemington jump outs have been quite encouraging, draws well and only has to carry 51kg.
Big Danger: 11 Heatherly (Best Odds: $3.80) looks the one to beat on form. She ran down the straight over 1100m at Flemington last time out and kicked on very strongly to win narrowly but impressively. The 51kg impost makes her a real threat, she’ll ping to the front and give them something to chase.
Roughie: 7 The Monstar (Best Odds: $13.00) was the clear unlucky runner in the Kensington Stakes (1000m), getting badly held up in the straight and on heels late in the piece. Probably should have won there, so it was an excellent return, and now he gets the services of Oliver on a track where he has run some super races.
Race Six (16:00) : Hyland Race Colours Autumn Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Holler (Best Odds: $2.80) took on the older horses first up in the Australia Stakes (1200m) and was given a smart ride by Williams, sitting on speed most of the way and kicked on strongly. Back to his own age and sex now, and despite the big weight rise, he should take some beating.
Big Danger: 1 Mahuta (Best Odds: $2.70) is an absolute beauty of a horse for Darren Weir. There are horses with better ability than him, but I doubt there is one as brave and tough. He comes through the Magic Millions Guineas (1400m) where he carved over from the wide gate and led all the way. He beat Holler here on Caulfield Cup Day, and meets Holler 2kg worse off. That’s the query, but hard to dismiss.
Roughie: 7 Celtic Tiger (Best Odds: $51.00) resumes here for Mick Price. He was touted as a Derby horse, but fell away after failing in the UCI (1800m) at Flemington. Recent jump outs and trials have been excellent and first up last time in he worked home well to run fifth to his stablemate and subsequent Derby winner Tarzino. He can run a bottler fresh.
Race Seven (16:30): Ladbrokes C.F. Orr Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 16 Rising Romance (Best Odds: $41.00) was a bit of a nightmare to follow in the Spring, where she teased on a few occasions but couldn’t quite get the job done. Loved a recent jump out of hers at Flemington and first up last time was here in the Memsie where she closed off strongly behind Boban.
Big Danger: 4 Lucky Hussler (Best Odds: $4.20) showed his class on Magic Millions Day with a dominant win in the Cup, aided by a peach of a steer from Bossy. Loves racing at Caulfield and at 1400m, he has fitness on his side, as well as class, plus he draws a lovely gate.
Roughie: 6 Mourinho (Best Odds: $26.00) closed off very well when resuming in the Australia Stakes (1200m) when seventh to Holler after missing the kick. Has since trialled on Monday at Cranbourne and won that impressively. He will be around the mark somewhere for sure.
Race Eight (17:00) : The Cup Club T.S. Carlyon Cup 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Burning Front (Best Odds: $3.80) has been up for a long time, but continues to race so well. He won the VOBIS Gold Star last time out at Moonee Valley where he led all the way and won with real authority. Should come over from the wide gate without too much drama and looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: 11 Pure Karma (Best Odds: $17.00) ran over this track/distance last Saturday and looked the winner halfway down the straight but just peaked on the run and had to settle for second to Grande Rosso. That leaves me thinking he is a query at the mile, but the talent is there for sure, and there should be upside.
Roughie: 8 Tudor (Best Odds: $13.00) ran in the John Dillon (1400m) here on Australia Day where he attempted to lead all the way and just felt the pinch late when running fourth to Mighty Like, who ran alright on the weekend. Tudor looks the leader here, Gauci remains on and he’ll give plenty of cheek.
Race Nine (17:30) : Mypunter.com Bellmaine Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Looks a good kick off point for star mare 9 Azkadellia (Best Odds: $3.20). Her two runs on Cox Plate Day and Derby day were just about the runs of the entire Spring Carnival. Had no right to finish as close as she did on both occasions but she did. Trialled well on Monday, and though the dry track is a little query, if she gets luck from the gate, she should just about take care of this bunch.
Big Danger: 1 Wawail (Best Odds: $4.80) is another classy mare that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. She only had three runs during the Spring and while she didn’t win, her efforts were very good. Recent Flemington jump out was very good, draws well and gets the services of Doug Whyte.
Roughie: 3 Nadeem Lass (Best Odds: $41.00) resumed down the straight at Flemington and as she always does, she worked home powerfully late to run third to Bullpit, beaten three lengths. Terribly weighted given her record compared to others, but she should do no work from the gate and will be strong late.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 9 Azkadellia
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 Burning Front
VALUE: Race Seven Number 16 Rising Romance
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 16
Leg Three: 1, 6, 8, 11
Leg Four: 1, 9
$50 Investment= 17.85% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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