13/7/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Swan River Vase day

Want to give 4 Laverrod (Bet Now: $2.80) another look. This Sean Casey trained colt was hard in the market when debuting over 1000m here a couple of weeks back off some impressive trials but just got stuck wide early on, was keen in the run and had nothing left for the straight when third to the consistent Miss Tycoon. Inside gate looks a massive tick, expecting him to lead and prove hard to run down.

9 Is A Bombshell (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Smart Missile filly for Fred Kersley that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Autumn when trying to get into the Karrakatta Plate field by running in a couple of Stakes races to start her career, hopefully winning one, and while she was okay, she didn’t win and not quite measure up. Trials have been good and drops a fair bit in depth.

2 Hooroo Lads (Bet Now: $6.00) is an interesting runner. This Jason Pateman trained runner was unwanted in betting when debuting here last Wednesday but despite that, I thought he was very impressive in leading throughout, and did it with something in hand, beating a filly who I have time for, Time To Sizzle. Think that form will read well and thus, he’s a threat here.

4 Metro Boy (Bet Now: $5.50) for me. Dan Morton trains this three year old, who resumes after a pretty solid Summer/Autumn prep, which saw him win one race and be around the mark in the other runs. Takes on the older horses for his resumption, but but has a good record at the track/distance and liked what I saw from him in a recent Lark Hill trial. Happy to be in his corner.

3 Glasgow Girl (Bet Now: $3.50) comes back to 1000m for Lindsey Smith after racing over 1300m here two weeks ago where she seemed to get a decent enough run behind the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite get the job done when third to Mankind. Interesting she comes back to the short course, but a good lead is that Pike has been booked to steer. Keen to see how she goes back in trip.

9 Deep Cover (Bet Now: $26.00) is a War Chant gelding for Jason Pateman that resumes. This bloke had four runs in the Summer/Autumn and for the most part was disappointing but we know he is better than that, and usually sprints well fresh, so though first up here without a trial, I reckon he finds a really winnable race if he’s forward enough, but market will be the guide.

2 Festival Miss (Bet Now: $2.90) looks a really talented filly for the Williams camp that was a hard fav when resuming over 1000m here a few weeks ago and aided by some Pike magic nearer the inside, the three year old filly dashed hard late to prove too good for her rivals. Overall late splits were similar to that of Battle Storm and she did it in inferior ground, so keen to see how she goes up to 1200m.

Back to 1200m will suit the Simon Miller trained 3 Flower Of War (Bet Now: $4.40). Tried her out over the mile in the Guineas three weeks ago where she sat on speed and looked to travel well but just didn’t run the trip out when down the track behind Mystery Miss. Sprinting is her go in life so back to 1200m and from an ideal, she’ll take running down if she still has speed in the legs.

4 Fairview (Bet Now: $18.00) is a daughter of Trade Fair that resumes for the Sean Casey stable. This filly did some nice things for us last time, including a win at Ascot at $20+. Probably raced a touch flat and tired towards the end of the campaign. Been given a good break and liked what I saw in a Belmont trial a few weeks ago. She’ll likely drift back and be strong at the end.

1 Gatting (Bet Now: $1.35) for me. This ripper surprised many with his dominant win in the Hyperion two back before racing in the Strickland two weeks ago when fighting hard and looking home, but was nabbed on the peg by Galaxy Star. That form is clearly A1 for this, and is a proven weight carrier, so that won’t be an excuse and I think his toughness gets him home.

2 Come Play With Me (Bet Now: $3.10) deserves a crack at this level. He’s flying for Adam Durrant, winning three on the bounce, the latest coming over 2000m here a few weeks ago when given a 12/10 steer by Brodie Kirby nearer the inside and sprinting best to get the job done. Weight no issue for him, he’ll stay, handles all conditions…can he handle the class rise?

5 Mr Alby (Bet Now: $23.00) is on the seven day back up after racing over this track/distance last Saturday where he is a noted third up specialist and he kept that trend going, improving big time off the opening two runs to finish a narrow second to Spiritual Warrior. Got upside fitness wise and though poorly weighted, I think he’s now going well enough to fill a first four spot.

7 Coming Around (Bet Now: $3.80) does look a key chance against this lot. This Raquel Williams trained three year old looked to be bolting in the run in the Guineas and presented to win but just had no answers for the finale of Mystery Miss and battled away for third. Like him back to 1400m and the depth here is clearly not as strong. Hard to beat against this lot IMO.

9 Mankind (Bet Now: $7.50) is a great story for Hayden Ballantyne, the former Freo star who is now playing in the WAFL but is now turning his hand to race horse training and he has this horse flying. Lovely ride by Kate Witten saw him get the win here two weeks back, holding a decent spot from the inside gate and getting the split in the straight, finishing best to score. Draws well again and is hard to beat.

5 Misty Lad (Bet Now: $19.00) looks suited up to 1400m. He resumed over 1300m here two weeks ago where he got outside the speed and looked to travel a bit keen in the run, which left him without petrol tickets for the end when fourth to Mankind, beaten just over a length. He is a second up winner, like him at 1400m. Just hope he can relax a bit better in the run.

4 Pym’s Royale (Bet Now: $3.60) looks a great bet here for Peter Fernie. Resumed over this track/distance two weeks ago and produced one of the runs of the day, savaging the line from the back to run third to Stageman, beaten under two lengths but made up significant ground and his late splits were outstanding. If he can sit closer in the run, gee he’ll take some beating.

A bit of Pike magic got 1 Stageman (Bet Now: $4.00) home a fortnight back. Saved ground nearer the inside before Pike got the inside split, drove the horse through and in that usual Pike style, he lifted the horse late to nab Free Trade, who did work in the run and was brave. But it was good to see Stageman get the job done and now he’s done it, hopefully he can repeat the dose.

6 Big Caroline (Bet Now: $31.00) is on the seven day back up for the Giadresco stable after racing over 1300m here last Saturday where she got well back in the run, never really in the hunt, but made up ground late behind Nikitas. Fast run 1200m looks a better set up for her and she has won on the seven day turnaround before, including last prep. Knockout chance.

Hoping the track does dry up because I reckon 11 Dark Prospect (Bet Now: $20.00) is an outstanding bet here at odds. Just looked in need of the hitouts in the first two runs for the prep before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where he was there to win, but just ran out of puff late when fourth to The Velvet King. He’s fourth up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and down in the weights, hopefully on firmer ground, I’m really keen on him running well.

The weight relief should help the Adam Durrant trained 5 Battle Torque (Bet Now: $27.00). He comes through the same race mentioned above, won by The Velvet King. He had to lump 61kg and the tempo wasn’t strong so finishing off hard from the back with that weight was a tough ask. Now gets weight relief and tempo looks more genuine, he can bounce back.

Another that will like getting down in the weights is the Colin Webster trained 7 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $31.00), who ran over 1400m here two weeks ago with 60kg and liked the way he found the line late under the impost when fourth to Moschard, an in form galloper, so that form reads alright, albeit inferior to a couple of other form lines, but gets the weight relief and up to the mile will suit.

Have to give 7 Deimos (Bet Now: $10.00) another chance. Like most, I was all over him when he raced here two weeks ago but after looking to travel keen in the run, like he did the start prior, he threw in the towel far too quickly and thankfully there was a reason for that, with an elevated heart rate being found by the vet post race, so a clear excuse that. His prior form will see him win if he brings it.

1 Lordhelpmerun (Bet Now: $2.80) has to carry the weight but does have class on his side. This Steve Wolfe trained three year old ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he tried really hard but couldn’t quite get the job done and had to settle for a narrow second to The Velvet King. That form does read well for this. The only concern with me is the weight.

5 Skinnen Tins (Bet Now: $23.00) is over a month between runs for the Ashley Maley stable since winning the WA Day Cup at Northam over the mile, getting the dream sit behind the speed before getting clear air late and finishing best to get the job done. Fresh at the mile is an interesting one, especially in town, but has residual fitness and did run well in town two back.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 4 Pym’s Royale

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 1 Gatting

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 11 Dark Prospect

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 5, 7, 9

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11

Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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