13/6/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm

Warwick Farm will play host to an eight race program on Monday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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I’m really surprised that 6 Asva (Bet Now: $3.90) isn’t favourite. Two year old taking on the older horses and is on debut for Team Snowden. His two trials this time in have been electric, winning at Randwick before a closing third at Hawkesbury in a good piece of work. He’s ready to rock and roll.

1 Destiny’s Bounty (Bet Now: $3.20) looks to have talent, but I am a bit surprised he is favourite. He resumes for John O’Shea and has looked strong in two trials, though I will say that the Hawkesbury trial session, it was on speed dominated, so while he is talented, hard to beat…I’d want more than $3.50/thereabouts.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 8 Ovoid (Bet Now: $9.00). Ryan/Alexiou trained three year old that resumed over 1100m at Hawkesbury. He got a fair way back in the run but liked the way he finished his race off to run third. Might want it easier, but should be strong late.

2 Beirut Miss (Bet Now: $3.30) on top in a thin race. Joe Pride trained filly that resumed at this track/distance and she had zero luck in the straight. Doubt she wins, but clearly should have finished closer when second to Pretty Wild. Hopefully gate one isn’t a disadvantage and if she gets clear air, she likely wins.

3 Glacier Queen (Bet Now: $3.90) is a filly with talent for David Pfieffer. Ran third in the Pretty Wild maiden mentioned above when wide throughout and actually stuck on pretty well in defeat. Gets a significant jockey upgrade with Bowman taking over and I think drawing wide could be okay.

4 Shakakhan (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Shalaa filly for Chris Waller that is on debut. This girl hasn’t quite set the world on fire in the trials, but that can be said about some of these unraced types for Waller and they can come out and fire on debut, so watch the market and see what it does.

6 Outlook (Bet Now: $2.90) is getting towards D-Day but I’m giving her one last chance. Have been keen on her in all three runs this time in. Two back looked home but was nabbed late at Scone. Then went to Doomben where she got a mile back in the run and tried to make a sustained run but tired late. If she’s within range, she’ll take beating.

5 Arabolini… (Bet Now: $4.50) is there petrol left in the tank? He got completely barbecued in front at Randwick last time and rightfully dropped out when beaten close to 20 lengths. Prior form was quite solid and with a more economical run on speed, he will prove hard to catch.

4 Monreal (Bet Now: $5.00) isn’t far off a win for Matty Smith. He ran in a fast run 2500m race at Flemington last start and worked to the line pretty well without threatening when third to impressive winner Pesto. He wants the track to dry out so if that eventuates, he can run an improved race.

7 Tavi L’Amour (Bet Now: $3.70) has found winning form and I think she can hold it. Took a while to get the maiden win on the board and it finally came at Hawkesbury last start where she found little depth and she gave them a spanking in an impressive display. Now she has won, she can go on with it.

5 Quiet Michael (Bet Now: $6.00) is a hard horse to catch but at his best, he is a more than handy horse. Chris Waller trained gelding that resumed at Hawkesbury where he got back in the run but came with a well timed run to nail them near the peg. Fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks and clearly has good upside to come.

10 Mystic Mermaid (Bet Now: $5.50) is still a maiden but she is a filly with decent talent. She kicked strongly at this track/distance last time out and looked home, but was nabbed late by Villeins. I reckon getting onto firmer footing will help her cause…doubt she wins and a first four threat.

I’ll take a punt with 4 Icecrusher (Bet Now: $8.00), who resumes for Brad Widdup. Hasn’t raced since the Autumn when down the track at Rosehill in a Midway behind Achira. Reckon a bit of juice in the track is ideal and I thought she closed off really well in a recent Hawkesbury trial. 1400m fresh tells me she’s ready to go.

2 Sur La Mer (Bet Now: $2.10) is one of the hardest to beat. Chris Waller trained mare that ran here last start on a bog and she made an absolute mess of them, lapping up the conditions and giving them a spanking. She’s hard to catch but if she holds that form, she’s the one to beat.

5 Think Three (Bet Now: $7.00) has been a good mare for Kris Lees for a few seasons and continues to race at a decent level. Ran over 1550m at Canterbury last time out and chased nicely but was no match for dominant all the way winner Tinnie Winnie, who won again last week, so the form reads well and I think firmer footing, back to 1400m, should see her run well again.

4 Jal Lei (Bet Now: $4.40) on top. John O’Shea trained filly that resumes after a mixed Autumn prep. She was so dynamic first up but then went to Stakes grade and ran okay without properly measuring up. Given a good break and her trials leading in have been super. She’s ready to rock and roll fresh.

6 Dehorned Unicorn (Bet Now: $5.00) has home track advantage and commands respect. Just went a bit too keen on speed at Rosehill last start and just felt the pinch late behind Kingsheir. Reckon back to Midweek grade suits him and on his home track, Joe Pride polish, he can bounce back.

8 Micro (Bet Now: $8.50) could spank these if he’s ready to go. James Cummings trains this three year old and comes back to racing as a gelding. He showed good talent in the Spring in some solid Stakes races. Spelled, and his trials to get ready have been very encouraging, so watch the market.

5 Huon (Bet Now: $7.50) is a horse with good talent and confident he can measure up in town. Beaten narrowly two back by Backrower before spanking them last start, leading throughout under Zac Lloyd, who is finding his feet quite easily in Sydney. Drawn wide, but should slide forward and prove hard to beat.

1 Huesca (Bet Now: $3.60) has returned in pretty good order. WaterBott trained three year old that sat on a good speed fresh at Randwick and was entitled to knock right up, but he kept on and was game in defeat when fourth. Should get a suck run from the gate and be around the mark.

13 Paper Daisy (Bet Now: $26.00) gets the Blinkers back on and has home track advantage, so it does smell of a set up. Ran over 1100m at Hawkesbury last start and was quite good from off the speed when a closing fourth. If the Blinkers do sharpen her up, expect good improvement.

Any hint of upside from 4 Brimstone (Bet Now: $3.80) and he wins. Australian debut came over 1250m at Canterbury and I thought he was excellent from the back when second to a pretty handy horse in Cross Talk. Fitter, up to 1400m, firmer footing…it all points to him going very close.

1 Travest (Bet Now: $5.50) saves his best for Warwick Farm. All four career wins have come back and I think he’s found positive form. He was good from the back at Randwick last start behind Cotehele in a tidy effort. If he’s within range on the turn, he’s good enough to blouse them.

11 Nicochet (Bet Now: $14.00) is getting on in years but he still looks to maintain a healthy zest for racing. This guy hasn’t raced since March 5 at Newcastle when a strong on speed winner, just getting the better of Shameless Miss, who has since gone onto be a city class horse, so the form reads okay and has trialled well leading in.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Brimstone

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Asva

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 Icecrusher

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Leg Two: 4, 6, 8, 9

Leg Three: 1, 5, 12, 13

Leg Four: 4

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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