13/6/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Winter Cup day

Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday where it is Winter Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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First starter on wet ground is normally an option that goes through to the keeper, but 9 Oh Say (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) has certainly looked the part in the trials for Team Hawkes. On breeding, wet ground should be fine, and she has looked very good when she has trialled on it, with seemingly plenty up the sleeve. I’m keen to see how she goes.

The x factor is 1 Lady Banff (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS), a talented filly for Matt Dunn that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast when pulling up with excuses behind Away Game. Two trials leading in have been solid, stable finds J Mac to steer and she should be leading this field up, and comfortably. Unknown is wet ground.

11 Superbellaa (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is a Lee Curtis trained filly that finds a much more suitable race to the one she faced when resuming in the Woodlands when outclassed behind Macroura. Jump/run is her go in life it seems over the short course, so the Rosehill 1100m suits that style, and the tick over trial at Canterbury was quite good.

In the corner of 11 Rockarosa (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) for Keith Dryden and when it comes to weights, she’s the best placed all weekend I think given she has solid city metro form but since going to Keith Dryden, has won 2/3, the latest seeing her win a Federal at Canberra, which was a Benchmark 70. Now drops to Class 3, gets Nash on, handles wet ground and she’s just so well weighted.

There’s more to come with 2 Leg Work (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) and he can win again. Won a Highway over 1400m here two weeks ago when coming back in trip but thought it was a lovely ride from McEvoy and the three year old really surged the last 100m to win well. Like him back up to 1500m and is proven on wet ground at Rosehill.

16 Acquittal (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a Danny Williams trained gelding who is impossible to back to win with confidence but there was good specking for him when he resumed in a 1400m Highway here two weeks ago when doing a bit of work near the speed and battled away well in defeat behind stablemate Leg Work. Doubt he wins, but is one for multiples.

6 Miss Einstein… (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) she’s well and truly into last chance territory. Was all over her two back when second to subsequent winner Opacity before backing up a week later over 1400m here when back in trip, and I thought she was just fair, albeit without much luck in the straight. If she can’t go close here, it’s a life ban.

11 Maggie Miss (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) looks the leader and I think that will be an advantage on this track. This mare should be suited up to 1500m after racing over 1400m at her past two, the latest seeing her run a narrow second on the Kenso track to Showminder. Yet to win on wet ground, but has placed in three of four runs on affected footing.

3 High Low Bet (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) can be an improver up to 1500m for Chris Waller. Both runs back from a spell have come at 1200m, the latest coming last Saturday on what was a goat track pretty much at Randwick in a race won by Wandabaa. High Low Bet wouldn’t have won, but I think with better luck finishes closer. Like her up in trip. Just depends where she gets to from the draw.

4 The Lord Mayor (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is nearing a win for Chris Waller. Had specking at odds in the Lord Mayors Cup and liked the way he finished his race off to run third to stablemate Wu Gok. His 2400m record is quite good and is a horse with upside to come compared to some of these, plus of course is in the right stable.

Going to have to cop a lower price with 1 Wu Gok (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) after his Lord Mayors Cup win but I think he can win again. He got conditions to suit two weeks ago and took full advantage, bolting clear in the testing heavy conditions. 2400m is a query with him because he does seem more effective at 2000m, but he’s the swimmer against these and track should have genuine give.

7 Sweet Thomas (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) can improve out of sight here. Very good fourth in the Sydney Cup to Etah James before going to the Gosford Cup where he failed to fire a shot behind Another Dollar. Tick over Canterbury trial was quite good and back up to 2400m, on a genuine wet track, he can run a big race at odds.

I think the scratchings with now a smaller field plays into the hands of 8 Outback Diva (Bet Now: $10.00). I thought she was no hope after drawing 14/14, likely going back to last, but now with a field of nine, she won’t be spotting them too much head start, and I thought her resumption at Kembla over 1000m was very good. Run off her legs early but loved the way she found the line. Hard to beat.

13 Switched (Bet Now: $3.40) looks a safe option after scratchings. Brad Widdup trained filly that resumed at Randwick three weeks ago and liked the way she stuck on in defeat behind impressive winner Witherspoon. I think she’s more effective on dry ground, but certainly can handle a Heavy 9 here and she’ll put herself near the speed and get every chance.

7 He’s Super Lucky (Bet Now: $14.00) is a query at 1200m, but has the gate to get an economical run. Resumed over 1000m at Randwick three weeks ago in a leader dominated race and worked to the line pretty well without threatening behind Witherspoon. If McEvoy can use gate one to advantage and box seat behind Mo’s Crown, he’ll be dangerous.

I have to go with 7 Attention Run (Bet Now: $11.00). Kris Lees trained stayer and really, if he brings anything near his best, he’d be an even money chance against these. Really good first up run in the Autumn behind Gaulois but I reckon that testing resumption on wet ground stuffed him for the rest of the prep. Looked good in a Gosford trial and noteworthy there’s been three winners to come from that trial. Go back to the Spring, he ran second in the Newcastle Cup and beaten 1.5L in the Metropolitan…that’s miles better form than these.

Have to include 4 Matowi (Bet Now: $8.00). Was on him at the big odds when he resumed at Randwick three weeks weeks ago despite coming into the race off one soft trial, but I loved his effort behind Man Of Peace and I think with a clear path, he runs third. Query about him on testing wet ground, but he’s got more upside than most.

10 Across Dubai (Bet Now: $9.50) has plenty to offer I think. He paraded like an absolute donkey prior to his Australian debut over 1500m here a fortnight back, sweating up something fierce. Despite the poor parade, he ran really well I thought without much luck behind Soldier Of Love. Fitter and up in trip are big ticks, but I’d see how he parades.

7 Adelong (Bet Now: $2.70) can continue her winning ways. Brad Widdup trained mare that was down to run last Saturday at Randwick but stable scratched and are playing the patient game when it comes to blacktype company. Loved her win over this track/distance two weeks ago, knuckling down strongly under Bowman to get the job done. More to come from her and gets weight relief this time around.

5 Blazing Miss (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Mark Newnham trained filly that is three weeks between runs since winning impressively over 1200m at Randwick against the older Mares. Despite being a filly taking on the Mares, she conceded weight, but on the line, she was too classy for her rivals. Gets good weight relief here, hard fit and has the right racing pattern.

10 Lashes (Bet Now: $3.50) is a Matty Smith trained mare that had trialled up well leading into her resumption at this track/distance a few weeks ago when back off the speed and was held up for a few strides, but she had her chance to wear down Adelong, but that mare was far too good. Fitter now and her second up record is very good, plus the tick over trial last week was sharp.

I reckon this is D-Day for 5 Noble Boy (Bet Now: $8.00). The resumption behind Dirty Work in the Ortensia was a definite pass mark. Then stepped up to 1200m here two weeks ago and he was terrible. Race was run to suit, but he didn’t finish off at all. He does seem a real third up specialist which is where he is at now. If he can’t run well here, I’d be telling the owners to send the horse back to Todd Blowes.

8 Trumbull… (Bet Now: $5.50) I’m nearly sick of him. He’s on his last chance here. Was all over him when he raced over 1500m here two weeks ago but again, bombed the start and gave himself no chance of winning in a slowly run race. If he had jumped clean, he would have been put on speed and gone close to winning. Clean jump here please.

3 Bangkok (Bet Now: $6.50) is hard to beat here I feel and a drop of rain would bring her right into play. Comes through the Helen Coughlan from a fortnight back at Doomben and worked home pretty well on a pretty firm deck. Back up to 1300m on the big track I do like and the chance of rain affected ground helps her big time.

If you’re a trial perv, you’ll be all over 5 Night Of Power (Bet Now: $4.00) here and I just can’t ignore the way he went in the trial. That came at Canterbury and he was absolutely trucking in the trial won by Classique Legend, who of course won last Saturday to frank the form. Best form is on wet ground, and if the market likes him, he’s the one to beat.

Fitter and up to 1300m are two big ticks for the James Cummings trained mare 7 Handspun (Bet Now: $4.20), who resumed in a fast run 1100m race here a fortnight back and I really liked the way she closed off late to finish a close up third to the talented mare Adelong. Paraded like she would need the run, so the fact she ran so well bodes alright for this prep I’d suggest.

15 Upper House (Bet Now: $16.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth, but Norm Gardner has him in career best form. Loved the way he knuckled down to win during the Wagga Carnival on testing ground before going to Queanbeyan where he was back near last in the run, but class came to the fore and he was much too good. Wet track no issue and is flying. One for multiples.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 6 Miss Einstein

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 4 The Lord Mayor

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 7 Attention Run

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7, 10

Leg Two: 5, 7, 10, 11

Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 8, 14

Leg Four: 4, 5, 7, 15

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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