13/5/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Andrew Ramsden Stakes day

Racing returns to Flemington this Saturday, headlined by the Andrew Ramsden (2800m), with the winner getting a free ticket into the Melbourne Cup. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Andrew Ramsden Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Andrew Ramsden Stakes

11 Isthmus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beautifully bred filly that is on debut for Team Freedman. She is by I Am Invincible out of former top class mare Shoals, so she is bred to be a good one. The jumpout work suggests she has talent, but sharp enough for 1100m is the query. That said, she’s drawn the right part of the track and will get clear air from the outset.

1 Scheelite (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is 1/1 to start his career so has to be respected in that regard. He showed good ticker to win on debut at Sandown, surging hard late nearer the inside to nab hot pot Prinzerro on the peg. The query with that form is IMO, Prinzerro could be a squib, so how strong is it? Not sure, but it’s race day that form and that is a big tick in a race that has first starters.

8 Hellara (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a three start career and commands respect. Didn’t do a bad job in two runs during the Spring/Summer before resuming in a small field at Geelong where she was a short priced favourite and loomed to win, but couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late by Vivy Air. Has a solid SP profile and has solid race day experience/fitness on her side.

3 Mr Mojo Risin’ (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could be a moral. Very promising Kiwi that makes his Australian debut for Andrew Forsman off the back of what was quite simply an amazing maiden win at Avondale back home in New Zealand, giving them a start and a beating, letting down with a brilliant finale to score. You go back through his form in NZ, it’s just about top class and we’ve seen the NZ form stand up in spades so far this year, certainly in the 3YO ranks. Keen.

4 Counttheheadlights (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with his best. He resumed over 1200m at Sandown on the Easter Monday program and was just a run I thought. Ran it in patches and was okay to the line without really threatening behind Valiancy. Like him up to 1400m and any hint of his best can certainly see him win this, so don’t entirely dismiss him.

9 Hell Hath No Fury (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality filly for Danny O’Brien that resumes. She hasn’t raced since Oaks Day at this track/distance when back in the run off the speed and found the line pretty well I thought behind Razeta, running fourth. 1400m fresh tells me there is some level of intent and if she’s ready to go, she’s good enough to take this out.

9 Party For One (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a frustrating mare to follow but I do think Flemington, 1400m, long straight to wind up…surely her day. Surely. Both runs for Price/Kent have come at Sandown, first up over 1200m and warmed up late behind Foxicon before going to 1300m two weeks ago and was very good from the back behind Barbie’s Fox. Hopefully she can get a drag into the race, be within range…if that eventuates, good luck beating her.

13 Arktika (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Snitzel for the Maher/Eustace camp that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since December 10 at Sandown when tailed off last, pulling up post race with Cardiac Arrythmia. Given a good break and with strong jumpout work under the belt, she’s ready to rock and roll fresh, especially at 1400m. Hopefully the market says she’s ready to go.

14 Star Of Chaos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and look the winner for a long way. She did that a fortnight back at Sandown, leading and giving a really solid kick, but got the staggers late and was run down, eventually finishing third to Barbie’s Fox. If she finds the front and gets some level of control, she can be a hard mare to get past.

17 Altivo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very progressive animal for Team Hawkes and appears quite clearly the one to beat. He resumed at the midweeks at Sandown over 1400m where he gave them a start and a beating, with McNeil giving him a peach from off the speed and really, it was just a matter of pushing the button and once he did, he exploded. Good upside, heading in the right direction, he’s clearly the pony to bet on.

8 Shaiyhar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the more fascinating runners on the program. Former French galloper that makes his Australian debut for the Busuttin/Young camp, a stable that are very good when it comes to imports. His form was over 2800m/2900m, so 1600m fresh is interesting, but his two jumpouts have been quite strong to my eye. Watch the market.

I think there is real intent here with 3 Flash Feeling (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for John Sadler. She resumed a few weeks ago at Sandown where he had a suck run nearer the inside and was building the revs nicely until getting badly held up late when having plenty up the sleeve. Has more upside than most, can settle near the speed and back on a track he likes, I think he only runs well.

2 Lethal Thoughts (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key contenders. Lovely ride from Shinn saw him win the Mornington Guineas three weeks ago, getting the suck run behind the speed before angling into clear air and drove hard late to get the better of Dashing, who won last Saturday to frank the form. The depth here is similar and gets gate one, so he has plenty in his corner.

3 Toronto Terrier (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suspect at the mile but hard to knock the way he’s racing. Just found the mile a bridge too far two back behind Russian Dancer at Sandown before racing there again when coming back to 1400m and was there to be beaten but found under pressure to fend them off and win. Soft gate should give him every chance to run the mile and is the key threat.

9 Ferlazzo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) probably doesn’t have the brilliance of some of these but the big tick for her is that 1600m is ideal. Both runs this time in have come at Ballarat, resuming with a close up second over 1200m before going to 1400m where she got better as the race went on and drew clear late for a nice win. Reckon with time, she’ll be 2000m+, but a truly run mile here is right up her alley and is in the right camp.

4 D’Jumbuck (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has proven himself to be a sharp straight track horse and with that in mind, he’ll do me. Four weeks between runs since a strong win at Sandown in the VOBIS Gold Sprint, letting down hard from off the speed to prove too good for Outlaws Revenge, who franked the form in the Wangoom. Back to the straight course and Shinn back on, he’ll do me.

1 Buffalo River (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and proving hard to run down. He did that a fortnight back at Sandown in the Anniversary Vase and looked the winner when he booted clear but he got the staggers late and was run down late by Cardinal Gem, one of the more in form gallopers in Melbourne. The last bit will likely test him but he’ll look the winner for a long way.

3 Jimmy The Bear (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Patrick Payne trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since Pakenham Cup Day in December when a tad on the plain side but perhaps it was an end of prep run behind Pal D’Oro. Been given a good break and has been tuned up for the return with a couple of jumpouts, so I’d watch the market and see what it does.

10 White Marlin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good thing and the fact he got beat last time should ensure we get a price unlike if he remained unbeaten. That defeat came at Pakenham and on face value, he was plain, but looking back at the meeting, there was a significant headwind down the side, which he copped the full brunt of, and it was a meeting where only one winner led/had no cover. Back to the scene of the crime of his dominant win on Melbourne Cup Day, very keen on him.

17 Lunar Flare (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Grahame Begg. She is five weeks between runs since racing at Sandown in the Easter Cup where she was unlucky not to finish second, getting badly held up, albeit was comfortably held by White Marlin. She is proven at Flemington though, is down in the weights and maps to do no work from the gate. Hard to beat.

7 Amade (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a big improver back on a firmer deck. His run in the Adelaide Cup was enormous given he was wide and doing work from the outset. He then went to the Sydney Cup where he struggled on the testing track behind Explosive Jack. You’d think he’s got nothing left in the tank but stable have kept him up for this race and off the Adelaide Cup effort, he’s a must for exotics.

1400m is unknown with 7 Outlaws Revenge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he’s flying for Daniel Bowman and I’m happy to be in his corner. He was kept very safe in betting last Wednesday in the Wangoom over 1200m and he made a mess of them from on speed, safely holding a margin and was strong to the line in winning. Off that, 1400m is okay despite drawing wide, and is hard fit whereas some of these will be using this as a prep run.

3 Crosshaven (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a pretty solid record at the track/distance and his best is clearly good enough. He comes through the Anniversary Vase from two weeks ago where he lobbed into a lovely spot near the speed and was there to threaten but couldn’t quite let down on the somewhat shifty track behind the in form Cardinal Gem. Back on firmer footing, he’s certainly in the mix.

4 King Magnus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) isn’t far off a win for the Griffiths/De Kock camp and it wouldn’t be a total shock if it came here. He ran two weeks back at Sandown in the Anniversary Vase, his first run in over 12 months, and was pretty good I thought from near last in the run, finishing just over a length behind Cardinal Gem. Think getting to Flemington and with upside, he appeals.

2 Airman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a three year old who has a decent engine under the hood. Team Hawkes trained gelding that comes here off the back of a win at the midweeks on the Kenso track where he produced outstanding late splits to win well in a race which had depth to it. Has done little wrong in a four start career and has always teased to be a good horse at this level. He can measure up for sure.

9 Midtown Boss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Street Boss for Team Kav that resumes. He hasn’t raced since December 10 here over 1400m when back off the speed and was very good late from the back, just missing out on the win when second to Russian Roni. Seems to have jumped out well leading to my eye and although 1200m is on the short side for him, he’ll be strong at the end.

10 Zou Sensation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets a host of gear chances to improve him enough to measure up. Market said it would be a prep run when resuming at Geelong on Good Friday and that is how it eventuated, getting no room to move when wanting to get going, eventually finishing down the track behind Karalee Rocks. His best is dangerous. Just want to see him do it.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 3 Mr Mojo Risin’

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 17 Altivo

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 Outlaws Revenge

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 10, 17

Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 13

Leg Four: 2, 3, 8, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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