13/4/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Sandown, Easter Monday races

Eight races will be run and won at Sandown Lakeside on Monday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

5 Boom Boom Becker (Bet Now: $5.50) looks the value in the opener. The Team Corstens trained three year old debuted on the Parks track at Morphettville and was very good from the back over 1000m. Went to 1200m at Mornington next start and was most unlucky. Wasn’t 100% happy on the tight track and held up before eventually getting clear and just missing. Looks extremely well suited here at 1300m on the big track.

4 Beau Zoom (Bet Now: $2.70) is a Neville Parnham trained colt that is the favourite and is hard to beat. Resumed over this track/distance when on speed under Olly and looked to have every chance when overhauled late by Quail Hollow. He looks to get a good run near the speed again and should be stronger this time around.

14 Vistabelle (Bet Now: $7.00) is the SP Profile runner here given she was a heavily backed odds on favourite when debuting at Sale over 1200m. Unfortunately for those that were on, she was forced very wide throughout in the run. Did plenty of work but did find the line pretty well late all things considered. Up to 1300m is idea and can take advantage of gate one.

1 Masseuse (Bet Now: $2.60) is bursting to win a race for the Maher/Eustace team and I think she gets her chance here. Latest run came in the Gold Rush at Bendigo when back and wide before peeling wider and finishing off strongly behind Swats That, an impressive debut winner. Like her up in trip and is hard to beat here.

Firmer footing and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 2 Sahara Song (Bet Now: $6.00), who was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1100m at Caulfield. Somewhat run off his legs but picked up and was sound late when fourth to Forever Free. Gets Jamie Kah on and from a good draw, can sit closer in the run and be strong at the end.

4 Apsara (Bet Now: $19.00) looks to have her share of talent. Had been jumping out quite well prior to the debut at Warrnambool where she was back off a very slow speed, then caused a bit of carnage on the turn to get clear. Balanced up, surged hard but just ran out of condition late. Terrible draw, but looks to have talent so look for her to get back and launch late.

Looks a lovely first up assignment for 1 Alburq (Bet Now: $8.00), a Michael Moroney trained three year old that resumes. Hasn’t raced since contesting the Manfred where he didn’t handle the wet track behind Super Seth. Prior to that had run well behind Rubisaki, who is one of the best 3YO fillies in Australia. That form just reads so well for this and his recent Flemington jumpout was very good.

9 Sovereign Legend (Bet Now: $3.90) looks a good animal for John Sadler that I think can measure up here. He didn’t smash the clock when winning on debut at the Valley, but bear in mind he was held up til the last 100m and when he did get clear, he really attacked the line and was impressive. Stable is having a good run at the moment and I think he’ll run well.

Bigger track and 1200m are two big ticks for 2 Exeter (Bet Now: $12.00), who resumed over 1100m at Caulfield in the Inglis Dash, a trip clearly short of his best, but liked the way he finished his race off behind Excess Funds. Not sure where he gets to from the draw, but if he’s within range on the turn, his class will carry him a long way.

On one hand, really struggling with this race. On the other hand, it’s potentially a race in two. Just a matter of siding the right way. Hopefully the side of 6 Cryptic Jewel (Bet Now: $4.00) is the right one. Was very good in defeat two back in the Matron before going to the Epona on Slipper Day and failed to fire a shot behind Missybeel. That race had depth to it, so back to this level should suit and a rise to 2100m should be fine.

Only other winning chance for me is 2 Reflect The Stars (Bet Now: $3.60). She’s flying for Danny O’Brien but just can’t quite crack it for a win, with her racing pattern letting her down. In saying that, she did get close to beating Jack Regan last start but couldn’t quite get there. Like that Williams is back on and should be strong at the end.

5 Touch Of Mink (Bet Now: $9.00) is racing in really good order at the moment for the Maher/Eustace team. Strong on speed win two back at Cranbourne before going to Pakenham when doing work on speed and fighting on strongly. Couldn’t fend off the challenge of Hunboshi near the line. Tricky gate, but has early toe and should get over.

Hopefully the track does dry up somewhat because I think 2 Humbolt Current (Bet Now: $9.00) is a good gamble here each way. Loved the way he closed off first up at Rosehill behind Zoffany’s Lad before going to Caulfield where he really struggled, like most, on the bog track behind Salsamor. Firmer footing, hard fit now, 2400m, inside gate, think he only runs well.

4 No Commitment (Bet Now: $3.70) is knocking on the door to win one. 12/10 steer by Callow at Bendigo last time and really, the ride deserved the win, but found one better in Budd Fox. Does get a significant weight pull on that horse here and Callow remains on. The knock is the track. Soft7 is a risk. If it dries out, clearly hard to beat.

9 Mountain Breath (Bet Now: $8.00) has been somewhat disappointing since coming to Australia but in saying that, she hasn’t been terrible. Just forget she went around behind Jack Regan last time out given she just got too far back in the run from the wide gate. Inside draw, Williams can take advantage of it and sit much closer in the run.

Fitter and a more genuine tempo should very much suit 5 Orleans Rock (Bet Now: $4.20). Had a month off prior to racing over 1400m at Sandown a couple of Wednesdays back where he was near last in a very slowly run affair but loved the way he found the line late when third to Beehunter. Staying at 1400m is the knock but he’s clearly knocking on the door.

13 Excelman (Bet Now: $3.70) is the main threat. Richard Laming trains this Reliable Man gelding, who resumed over 1300m here a couple of Wednesdays back and closed off with real purpose late when fourth to Charleise. A rise in trip does suit…but does he want further than an extra 100m? Olly remaining on certainly helps.

2 Sonaree (Bet Now: $16.00) has his share of talent for the Hayes/Dabernig team that was ridden more aggressively last time out when sent forward to land on speed and he showed good fight in the straight when second to Pierro Belle, beaten around a neck. If he can improve off that run and get near the front again, he’ll give a sight at odds.

4 Sophia’s Choice (Bet Now: $5.00) gets one more chance for me. Pulled up lame two back at Morphettville so there were clear excuses for her that day. Then went to Caulfield where I was keen on her running well but just found the track too wet IMO. Has the hard fitness under the belt and back to 1300m should suit, as well as firmer footing.

The best version of 5 Excelida (Bet Now: $3.50) is certainly good enough to take this out. Had jumped out in sharp fashion prior to resuming in the Inglis Dash where not much went right for in the straight, but in saying that, thought she was entitled to do more behind Excess Funds. Can’t pen her off one run. Another chance back to this level.

2 Lucky Wick (Bet Now: $15.00) is the one that appears good value at nearly $20. Just looked in need of the run first up at Sandown before going to Pakenham, where she remained at 1200m, but this time finished off strongly from off the pace to run third to Hint Of Mint, who has good form around it, so that reads well for this and up in trip is a big tick.

12 Taksu (Bet Now: $8.00) for me in the get out. The Maher/Eustace team trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since September 4 at Sandown when a close up fourth, with the first three being Rox The Castle, Jumbo Ozaki and Reserve Street, all of which are Saturday class animals. Has had three jumpouts to prepare for his return, so has had a decent enough grounding, and there’s been early market support.

14 Licko’paint (Bet Now: $3.80) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained mare that had almost two months between runs when attempting to lead throughout here and she gave a really good kick in front, but that lack of hard fitness just beat her in the end when nabbed near the peg by Street Icon. Looks to get a good run near the pace again and is a leading chance.

Definite market watch here with 3 Mr Tipla (Bet Now: $8.00), who is first up. Had a three run Spring prep and on face value, didn’t really fire a shot, but in saying that, he did contest some strong races with good depth engaged at each outing. Been given a good break and his recent Cranbourne jumpout win was solid enough.

BEST BET: Race One Number 5 Boom Boom Becker

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Orleans Rock

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 2 Humbolt Current

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9

Leg Two: 5, 13

Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 7

Leg Four: 3, 10, 12, 14

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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