13/4/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, WATC Derby day

The Ascot Autumn Carnival continues this Saturday where it is WA Derby Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

I think 1 Pretty Style (Bet Now: $1.60) can make it 3/3 to start her career. Lou Luciani has done a good job with this filly, placing her well and getting the results. Impressive debut win at Bunbury before racing over this track/distance two weeks ago and leading all the way. beating what I thought was a stronger field compared to what she’ll face here. Happy to be in her corner.

3 Annihilator (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Neville Parnham trained colt on debut. This son of Akeed Mofeed has had three trials leading into his debut, all coming this prep, and he has gotten better each time he has stepped out, the latest being last week at Lark Hill when second to High Range. Afkeed Mofeed progeny are going well this season and blinkers on for start one tells me there’s intent.

5 High Range (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Galah gelding have his first start. This youngster has only had the one public trial, which came last Monday at Lark Hill when showing a nice turn of foot to get the job done over 950m, and ran decent relative to the morning. Think there’s a bit of depth to this two year old race, but he looks handy and a win certainly wouldn’t surprise.

He rises to metro class maiden company, but happy to be with the Sarah Childs galloper 6 Crypto (Bet Now: $3.20). Has had two career outings to date, both on his home track at Geraldton. Worked home with real purpose on debut to run second before having no luck at all last time when fourth, but you could easily make a case that he should have won. Clear air this time, he’ll take some beating.

2 Kendel’s Me Dad (Bet Now: $5.00) hadn’t shown much on the race track compared to impressive trials but I thought there was good merit in his resumption here last Saturday when back and working home well late to run third to Divine Quest. Like that he’s on the quick turnaround and with the Tongue Tie back on, he is the one to beat on current for Just needs to produce it.

5 Megazone (Bet Now: $6.00) has shown some promise in three career runs to date. This bloke ran in a maiden over 1100m here a fortnight ago where he had the 1/1 sit and looked to travel well. Perhaps slightly held up but overall, I thought he had his chance to win when third to Ribbon Of Gold. Was coming back in trip from 1200m that day so back up to that distance here, he appeals.

7 Universal Mae (Bet Now: $4.60) on top for me. Meryl Hayley trains this mare, who ran over this track/distance last Wednesday and I thought her effort from the back was very good, closing off with real purpose to run third to Geiger Gem, beaten under half a length. If she is able to sit closer in the run, and the tempo is more genuine, she’ll take some beating here.

3 Superior Smile (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Team Pearce trained gelding who was given every possible chance when racing over this track/distance last Wednesday and at the top of the straight, he looked home, but he couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Geiger Gem. Off that run, I would have doubts on him winning here, but perhaps with the run under the belt, he’ll be better off.

5 Gold Artisan (Bet Now: $23.00) is on the quick back up after resuming over 1500m here last Wednesday when wide no cover for the trip and fighting on quite well in defeat behind High Tea. Bit harder here, and will need luck in running from the sticky draw, but the resumption was tidy enough and like that he’s running straight away. One to include in multiples I think.

6 Arctic Stream (Bet Now: $2.50) on top in a decent race for the middle distance gallopers. He is two weeks between runs for Ross Price after racing over the mile here where he probably had his chance but was far from disgraced when third to Red Pu blisher, beaten over a length. Yet to win in eight attempts at Ascot, but is knocking on the door and I think he gets his chance.

1 Friaresque (Bet Now: $4.60) is a very consistent son of Blackfriars for the Lindsey Smith who has placed in all three runs from a spell. Last run came three weeks ago over this track/distance when finding the line strongly to run a narrow third to Five Degrees. Another that doesn’t have the greatest of winning records on the track, but is going well and has to be respected.

2 Like A Butterfly (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Lou Luciani trained mare who was specked at odds when racing over this track/distance three weeks ago and the market nearly got it right as she came from a mile back to run a narrow second to Five Degrees in a blanket finish. Hasn’t won in a little while but does have class on her side and has the ability to sit closer in the run.

I think 7 Altani (Bet Now: $4.80) can measure up here. Smart looking filly who trialled well prior to resuming in an Albany maiden where she led all the way and absolutely bolted in under Tayla Stone, and the time stacked up really well relative to the day. Good lead that Pike takes the ride, likely lands on speed and should take some running down, especially if she gets a cheap furlong.

1 Cup Night (Bet Now: $2.70) is 2/2 this time in for Bernie Miller, both coming here over 1200m and 1400m respectively. Loved the way he knuckled down to win first up before sitting wide last time out and was there to be beaten but class came to the fore and he just got there. Think with cover and a cold steer, 1500m will be okay and is a leading chance for sure.

3 Rebel Knight (Bet Now: $5.50) is four weeks between runs after racing over the mile here last time out and did a ripping job in defeat I thought, closing off with real purpose off a moderate tempo when third to Yeah Bravo, beaten narrowly. Did want to lay in that day, so if he does everything right this time around, I think he’ll take a power of beating against this lot.

Good to see 1 Beaucount (Bet Now: $4.00) get a win on the board at this track/distance two weeks ago and I think he can repeat the dose again. It’ll be heart in your mouth stuff because he will be leading by a space, nearly 10 lengths if allowed to properly roll, and he will get the staggers late, like he did last time. Just hope he can cling on again. 1800m does look his trip which helps.

2 Magical Charm (Bet Now: $4.50) is a daughter of Savabeel for Adam Durrant who comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Feb 17 when down the track in the Narrogin Cup behind Truly Gold. Been given a little freshen up and the Lark Hill trial last week was more than encouraging to the eye. Has a touch of class on these…just depends how far back she gets.

4 Summer’s Skye (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Summer Dickson trained mare who comes back to 1800m after racing over 2100m here three weeks ago where she got a mile back in the run but got clear air in the straight and launched to just miss out on picking up Upward Others, and that form was okay to an extent last Saturday. Back in trip is the issue, she’ll be giving away a start but will be strong late.

Happy to stick with the Simon Miller trained 11 Special Reward (Bet Now: $1.85). Was keen on him when he resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago and despite being strongly challenged late, class came to the fore and he proved too good. I’m hoping he bounces off that and improves leading into this harder assignment, and if that’s the case, the one to beat, clearly.

5 Seeker (Bet Now: $15.00) is a beauty for the Lou Luciani stable who rarely runs a bad race and gets the right set up to run well yet again. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back when outside the speed and battling away well in defeat when third to River Dance, beaten under three lengths. Gets gate one, so he should get run of the race and is a definite threat.

1 Dam Ready (Bet Now: $20.00) is a tough campaigner for Mark Bairstow who has been up a little while but continues to race well. Was wide no cover when racing at this track/distance two weeks ago and that burn mid race just took the stuffing out of him when finishing midfield behind River Dance. The depth here isn’t as strong. Just needs better luck in running this time around.

4 Without Reason (Bet Now: $19.00) is a horse I’m willing to have something on each way. He, like several here, come through the Melvista behind Regal Power and while that horse was too good, Without Reason stuck to the task and I loved the way he ran through the line and about 100m after the line, he was in front, so 2400m will be no issue. For mine, I’d like to see him near the speed and rolling before the turn, because he doesn’t have brilliance, but he will stay.

If this turns into a sit/sprint, then 1 Regal Power (Bet Now: $1.60) will bolt in, like he did in the Melvista, when given a 12/10 steer by Pike, sitting that couple of pairs closer in the run and that was the big difference. Tricky draw, but if he can get into a similar spot like last time, he’s clearly the horse to beat. Do I want to take even money, or odds on? Probably not given there are question marks.

9 Dark Choice (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Team Williams trained filly who comes here off the back of the WA Oaks where Parnham gave the filly the sweetest of steers, holding a forward spot from the gate and then waiting for the split to appear, which came and she dived through to win. I think if she is to win again, she’ll need a similar steer. If so, I wouldn’t rule out a win.

He’s been a bit costly in two runs in WA, but giving 9 Plutocracy (Bet Now: $9.00) one more chance. Market said he’d need the run first up and that’s how it panned out behind Little Fish before seemingly having every chance last time out when beaten narrowly by Comparative. Like him back to 1100m, because I think 1200m sees him out. Gets his chance to win, but last chance for me.

Really wary of 4 Showcase (Bet Now: $4.40), an Adam Durrant trained mare who hasn’t raced since Feb 16 here when finishing down the track behind the then in form speedster Alpha Sky. Like the way she looked in a trial at Lark Hill last week and though she has an awful racing pattern, if she takes advantage of the draw and gets cover, three wide cover, she can be quite dangerous and is good when produced fresh.

11 M’Lady (Bet Now: $15.00) is an Anne King trained mare resuming. Very speedy customer who put in a career best prep when last in work, winning a couple of races in town but at times did mix her form. 1100m first up is interesting because I think 1000m is when she is at her most effective, but did trial up well, likely leads this field and will look the winner at some stage.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 6 Crypto

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 11 Special Reward

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Without Reason

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg Two: 11

Leg Three: 1, 4

Leg Four: 2, 4, 9, 10, 11

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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