The Caulfield Carnival continues this Wednesday with an eight race program, highlighted by the $350,000 Blue Sapphire Stakes (1200m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:25) : Ladbrokes Handicap (78) 2000m:
Back Me: 11 Data Point (Bet Now: $2.15) looks one of the better bets on the program. He ran at Sale last time out where he got back in the run and closed off hard to just miss out on picking up Moss ‘N’ Dale. Third up from a break now so he should be ready fitness wise…just looks the winner.
Big Danger: 1 Grand Dreamer (Bet Now: $4.60) ran over the mile at Moonee Valley a couple of Friday nights back and closed off hard late but was bloused near the peg by surprise winner Sly Romance for the in form Laming yard. The form around him prior reads very well through the likes of Distant Rock and Mihany. 2000m will be no issue, trained on the track and should be hard fit and ready to go now.
Roughie: 14 Mostert (Bet Now: $81.00) was game in defeat two back at Sale before going to Wangarrata where he did a stack of work on speed and gave a really good kick but was bloused late by Sheckys Daughter. Firmer track will assist and for omen punters who followed Bathurst, he is the logical tip.
Race Two (14:00) : Thebigscreencompany.com.au Handicap (78) 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Smart As You Think (Bet Now: $3.60) bolted up as if she was going to win the Morphettville Guineas last time out but given she was second up, her condition just gave out late I suspect when second to Silvera, who ran well in the Hill Smith on Saturday. Should be close to peak fitness now and looks the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: 1 Cellarman (Bet Now: $2.35) drops big time in depth after contesting the Stan Fox last time out where he sat on speed and was okay despite being well beaten when running fourth to Impending. Divine Prophet ran second and of course came out to win the Caulfield Guineas, so that reads well. The negative is that he does appear very poorly weighted.
Roughie: 7 Gran Tryphena (Bet Now: $7.50) was well in the market when debuting on the Pakenham Synthetic and she chased quite hard late to get the job done. More depth, but there is plenty to like about her and she has enormous upside.
Race Three (14:35) : Ladbrokes Up For The Challenge Handicap (84) 2400m:
Back Me: If you took the short odds about 5 Firenze (Bet Now: $4.00) last start at the Valley, you would have been waiting in the queue 1000m from home because she was just bolting in the run and it was just a case of how far. Ended up being 5.5L. She is loving life under Darren Weir and just ticks all the boxes for me here.
Big Danger: 2 Our Century (Bet Now: $3.60) made his Australian debut over 1700m here and was a real eye catcher I thought late in the piece when running fifth to Royal Rapture, who wasn’t beaten far in the Toorak last Saturday. The start prior, albeit in June 2014, he ran second to Hartnell…yes, Hartnell. Brings any sign of that form here and gee he’ll take some beating.
Roughie: 4 Last Wish (Bet Now: $21.00) ran on the Pakenham Synthetic last time out where he had to peel out a fair way from home and whacked away okay without really threatening when running fourth to Synthetic specialist Snitzelwood. He won third up last time in, beating home the subsequent Adelaide Cup winner. Definite improver.
Race Four (15:10) : Alannah Hill Plate (90) 1600m:
Back Me: 9 Plot The Course (Bet Now: $2.70) was massive last time out over 1500m at the Valley. He got caught in an awkward spot at a vital stage and by then, the leader/winner Mr Individual was off and gone but he closed off hard late. 2000m is the query, but he has upside and a turn of foot.
Big Danger: 3 Pilote D’Essai (Bet Now: $2.90) is a bit of a milk drinker for mine, but if he is going to be treated as a genuine Spring horse, he has to perform well here. He was given every chance last time out at Flemington, and when he peeled, it was no betting, but as soon as that happened, he just plugged. This is D-Day for him because it does look a very winnable race if he brings the form when he won at his Australian debut on the standalone Bendigo meeting.
Roughie: 5 Sadaqa (Bet Now: $15.00) comes through the Mr Individual race at the Valley where he had the 1/1 sit but was under pressure before the turn and dropped out to finish near last, but I don’t think he appreciated being off the speed and it was brutal. He can certainly roll forward here and the form behind with the likes of Great Esteem and Mihany is a terrific pointer for this.
Race Five (15:45) : Movenpick Ice Cream Handicap (84) 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Magic Boy (Bet Now: $17.00) shouldn’t be underestimated here. He was enormous first up when four/five wide no cover throughout to run a two length fourth to Heza Ripper before running another close up fourth behind one of the form gallopers in SA at the moment, Pepper The Pin. Oliver jumps on, and he only needs luck from the gate to be a threat.
Big Danger: 3 Sovereign Nation (Bet Now: $5.50) resumed over this track/distance a tick under two weeks ago where he sat near the speed, which clearly isn’t his go, but he kicked clear and looked home, only to be nailed late by Shillelagh, a classy mare. Ridden with cover is his go, and if that eventuates here, he’ll take some beating.
Roughie: Really good to see 12 Charlevoix (Bet Now: $11.00) back at the races. This Mick Kent trained runner had a brilliant opening prep, highlighted by a dominant win in the Galilee Final before a strong fifth in the SA Derby. From what I can see, he didn’t appear to jump out too bad at Cranbourne. Whatever he does here, he’ll improve on, but he has class and quality.
Race Six (16:25) : Catanach’s Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Flying Artie (Bet Now: $1.95) is a star colt that resumes for Mick Price. He is the number two seed when it comes to himself and Extreme Choice, but he is very good in his own right. Very game in defeat behind the stablemate in the Blue Diamond running a very game third to Capitalist in the Slipper. Jump outs and work overall has been quite encouraging. If he turns up anywhere near right, he just wins I think. Class prevails.
Big Danger: 10 Heptagon (Bet Now: $31.00) resumes here for Mick Price. He made his debut at Ballarat in March when charging home from the back to sprint clear and beat stablemate Summer Glen, so that form reads well, and the jump outs have been encouraging. Hard test against a crack bunch, but he looks a likely type.
Roughie: 7 Manolo Blahniq (Bet Now: $41.00) is the interesting runner here. Came over from NZ with decent wraps and was touted as a Golden Rose horse, but two flops in the lead ups ensured he was sent back to Victoria. Looked to trial well at Cranbourne last month followed by a Mornington jump out on September 28 where he looked really well, plus he has been scratched a few times since last start.
Race Seven (17:05) : Italktravel Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Keen Array (Bet Now: $3.70) looked sharp at the jump outs prior to resuming at the Valley where he ran third to a subsequent Group l runner up in Voodoo Lad before going to Caulfield where he did a stack of work in the run yet kept finding to get the job done. He should be ready fitness wise and looms as the one to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Clearly Innocent (Bet Now: $4.00) looked to have a belly on him when resuming in the Shorts (1100m), but his last 75m and through the line was very good for a race like this. He’ll eat up the extra trip here, and if he can sit closer in the run, he will be even more dynamic. Freshen up should only be beneficial for his Melbourne debut.
Roughie: 3 Illustrious Lad (Bet Now: $5.50) was well placed by the stable to resume in the Whylie at Morphettville where he was just far too good for his rivals, winning with a fair bit of ease and class. Not quite as dynamic when produced second up but he is a first up Stakes winner and stable is in form.
Race Eight (17:45) : Nick Johnstone Real Estate Vase 1600m:
Back Me: 16 Egypt (Bet Now: $6.50)…oh dear me. If you’ve backed the mare in either run this time in, it’s been cringe city. Had no luck fresh in the Let’s Elope behind subsequent Stocks winner Don’t Doubt Mamma before going to the Valley where she was about to burst through but she got shoved back into the pocket. Just needs a sniff of good luck here and she will take a stack of beating.
Big Danger: 15 Euro Angel (Bet Now: $4.80) was enormous in defeat I thought last Monday at Warwick Farm. She may have let punters down, but I thought the run was outstanding given she had to make a run herself from around the 700m, and being first up, she had every right to weaken, but she just kept finding the line to only go down 1.3L. Returns back to Victoria, and she only has to overcome the tricky gate to look the winner at some stage.
Roughie: 3 Iggimacool (Bet Now: $11.00) could be an improver here at odds. She comes through the Stocks Stakes where she sat back in the run on the rail and just didn’t get the breaks to go her way behind Don’t Doubt Mamma. Back on her home track and this is a very winnable race if she finds her best.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Flying Artie
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 4 Smart As You Think
VALUE: Race Five Number 8 Magic Boy
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 8, 12
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Four: 1, 3, 9, 14, 15, 16
$50 Investment= 41.66% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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