12/2/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Torney Night Cup night

Bludger of a maiden to start the program. 9 Reflecting Image (Bet Now: $3.90) looks the one with the most upside and progression. Good on debut at Werribee when third. Then went to Geelong and was solid late behind Kanzai, who ran well on Wednesday, so think the form reads well enough for a thin maiden like this and gets Winkers on to sharpen her up.

8 I Am Chickasaw (Bet Now: $2.25) is the map horse from the inside gate. Solid in defeat behind Amfissa at Pakenham before going to Werribee where she looked all over a winner but was nabbed near the peg by Limpet. Gets run of the race from the inside gate and Joe Bowditch is an in form rider.

7 Cautamente (Bet Now: $7.00) has been thereabouts in recent outings and can be around the mark once again. Closed off solidly enough two back at Wangaratta before going to Stony Creek where she had the suck run and tried hard. Just couldn’t quite get there. One for wider exotics. Backing her to win…I’d want double figures.

Host of first starters, so this is somewhat of a lottery on paper. I’m siding with 12 Wine From Tears (Bet Now: $13.00), on debut for the Griffiths/De Kock camp. Looked pretty sharp in winning a recent Cranbourne jumpout, leading throughout and going about her business quite nicely. Draws soft and is the right price at around double figures to find out what is truly under the bonnet.

1 Aziza (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Dissident filly for the Maher/Eustace stable that is having start one. She had a Spring prep without racing. Spelled and her most recent jumpout saw her lead throughout at Caulfield and she looked to move pretty well under minimal pressure. Jamie Kah booked, watch the market.

8 To The Moon Alice (Bet Now: $12.00) looks a nippy customer. Daniel Bowman trained filly on debut and she does appear to be a short course type. Showed good early toe in a recent Terang jumpout before being run down late, but she seems to have the right pattern for this kind of race, and debuting in town could well be a lead.

6 Eaton (Bet Now: $5.50) is eight years of age but don’t think he is racing any better. Led and felt the pinch late here two back. Freshened up and ran over 1850m at Kyneton on Australia Day and kept finding under pressure, just missing out on the win. Back up in trip I like and he will run a big race from near the front.

4 Resurge (Bet Now: $4.50) has been up a little while but seems to be holding his form pretty well for the McEvoy camp. Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and didn’t have the most amount of room in the straight when a close up fourth to Horse For Higher. Gets the claim for Will Price and hopefully gets better luck this time around.

8 Really Swish (Bet Now: $7.00) is just under two weeks between runs since racing over 1800m at Caulfield. Got back in the run and was never really a winning threat, but was sound in defeat behind War Critic. Racing as if the 2040m will be okay for him and overall, this isn’t a strong race.

Bludger of a race so going for value and I think that lies with 4 Humbolt Current (Bet Now: $15.00). The sit/sprint set up of the Australia Day Cup wasn’t his go last time out at Warwick Farm but liked the way he closed off very late in the race. If he can sit closer in the run from the inside gate, I think he’ll run a big race at odds.

2 Mosh Music (Bet Now: $2.50) has a fab record at the Valley and she is a last start winner so she commands respect. Bit surprised she drifted in betting like she did three weeks back at Sandown but it mattered not to her, finishing over the top. Now she has a win on the board, could well go on with it.

5 Stars Of Carrum (Bet Now: $6.00) tends to save his best for the Valley so an improved showing could well be on the cards. Comes through the Mosh Music race mentioned above when on speed and trying hard. Just couldn’t quite finish it off and settled for fourth. Not sure I could back him to win, but a must for exotics.

6 Propelle (Bet Now: $4.80) isn’t the most reliable galloper going around and can be an enigma, but this set up just looks perfect for her and am really keen on her chances. Excellent first up run at Sandown. Sat back and peeled wide, letting down. Just beaten by a race fit Ididitforlove, who has won again since, so that form reads very well and lone run at this trip, was three lengths off Bold Star. Really surprised she isn’t favourite.

5 Hidden Legend (Bet Now: $4.60) is hard to beat. John Sadler trained gelding that was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1100m at Caulfield. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but do feel that Mick Dee rode a somewhat negative race, handing it to Ginger Jones. He’ll camp just off this hot speed and be strong at the end.

That Ididitforlove race also saw 8 Lucifer’s Reward (Bet Now: $12.00) catch the eye late, working home strongly to run fourth after getting a mile back in the run. He is a winner at this trip and if he can a touch closer in the run with clear air at the right time, he could well be dangerous at good odds.

No idea what to do with this lot. 8 Limpet (Bet Now: $5.50) has less convictions than most and can press forward, so that’s why I am leaning his way. Sat on speed at Werribee last start and looked in trouble on the turn, but found plenty under pressure and surged hard late to win. Blinkers on and gets Lane steering. Think he’s a relatively safe option.

3 Subrunner (Bet Now: $4.00) is probably a deserving favourite given he comes through a solid form race, and although he ran second, keep in mind he was $61-$91 in betting, so he was barely expected to beat the ambulance home. But, the form out of the race has been good and he’s got upside. Market will be fascinating.

6 Wilsdorf (Bet Now: $6.50) is another that is lightly raced and comes here as a last start winner. He sat on speed in a Geelong maiden and looked to be in slight trouble early on in the straight but found plenty late and on the line was drawing clear. In the right stable and has the right racing pattern.

Safe option is 5 Savannah Cloud (Bet Now: $2.60), second up here for Phillip Stokes. Resumed over 1100m at Geelong and closed off strongly late from off the speed when a close up second to Garvoc, a horse who I have as a potential Stakes class horse with natural improvement, so think that form will read very well. Go back to the Spring, far from disgraced in the Guineas Prelude. That’s good enough to run well here.

4 Ilovethegame (Bet Now: $6.50) has that Beltoro/Ayrton form, which was pretty hot Summer 3YO form. Been given a break by Greg Eurell and comes here with fresh legs. Tuned up with a solid Geelong trial and has run well here previously, so watch the market with him and see what it does.

1 Rock The Ring (Bet Now: $10.00) has been up a little while but is racing well for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Three weeks between runs since racing in the VOBIS Gold Carat at this track/distance when back off the speed and chasing hard late, just missing out on picking up Yulong Command. Just has to overcome a tricky gate and he’ll be around the mark.

Bit of a throw at the stumps in the last in the shape of 6 Reard (Bet Now: $11.00). He resumed over 955m here and just didn’t have the speed in the legs to go with them, but was sound late in the piece behind dominant winner Lady Solly. Like the step up in trip and if he’s within range on the turn, he has the finale to beat these.

7 Foxy Lady (Bet Now: $2.90) is fast running out of chances. Matt Laurie trained mare that was a luckless third fresh at Caulfield behind Miss Albania before racing here and yes, held up for a few strides, but expected more from her when clear. Gets in very well after the claim and anything near her best, she wins.

Interesting to see how 12 Little Stevie (Bet Now: $9.00) goes. Not sure she beat a great deal first up at Werribee but she was dominant in winning after landing the 1/1 spot in the run. Go back several runs, she ran second to Masked Crusader, so she does have a touch of quality in her form to run well here.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 6 Propelle

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 5 Savannah Cloud

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 4 Humbolt Current

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 6

Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 8

Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 11

Leg Four: 6, 7, 9, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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