Randwick takes a break for the time being and all eyes are on Rosehill for their Golden Slipper Carnival, kicking off this Saturday with Coolmore Classic Day, with the 1500m Group l for the females attracting the best mares in the business, outside Winx of course. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:30) : Schweppes Handicap (90) 1350m:
Back Me: 3 Spectroscope (Best Odds: $2.80) is a very interesting runner. Import for Godolphin that makes his Australian debut for John O’Shea off the back of some encouraging efforts in France. Thought he trialled well recently behind Faith’s Encore and though 1350m is well short of his best, I think is overall form does read well to suggest he can measure up to Stakes company.
Big Danger: 2 Extensible (Best Odds: $2.90) is a quality mare that resumes for Team Snowden. Raced quite consistently during the Winter/Spring/Summer, but just couldn’t quite get that blacktype win. Could well come this time in. Has been tuned up for her return to racing with just the one trial, which was behind English, but the form out of that has been superb.
Long Shot: 7 Fly Forward (Best Odds: $5.00) is a horse in ripping form at the moment for the Price camp. Comes through a dominant win at this trip at Wyong on Provincial Championship Qualifier Day where he led all the way and just bolted up. Clearly more depth here, but he is right down in the weights, controls the speed and the firming surface will really aid his cause.
Race Two (13:10) : Smooth FM Maurice McCarten Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Artistry (Best Odds: $4.40) resumes for Team Snowden after a pretty good Spring prep. She ran twice, resuming with a second to Egyptian Symbol at Randwick before going to Flemington on Cup Day and sat wide throughout yet still got the win at Stakes level. Trial behind Strawberry Boy was very good and she is lethal when produced fresh.
Big Danger: 1 Dothraki (Best Odds: $2.70) hasn’t won for a long time, but gee he finds a very winnable race here. He has been freshened up since racing in the Southern Cross where he sat near the speed and tried hard but was no match for Le Romain, who of course came out to win the Canterbury Stakes last Saturday. Really good record at Rosehill and back to 1100m is a big tick.
Long Shot: I am giving 6 Alart (Best Odds: $17.00) a serious chance here. Form doesn’t read great, but in recent times she has either contested strong races, drawn wide or carried big weights. Lumped 63kg last time out at Quirdini and was only caught late by proven city performer Sargent Doakes. This race is filled with a lot of queries. She could be worth an each way/exotic play.
Race Three (13:45) : Cafe Culture + Insitu Pago Pago Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Really keen here on 2 Single Bullet (Best Odds: $5.00). He resumed in the Skyline (1200m) where he was a slight drifter late in betting and sat wide no cover for the entire trip. When you dissected the meeting, you soon realised his run in defeat was very good given nothing won out wide on the course. He’s a really good colt who can definitely measure up in a Slipper. Needs to win this though.
Big Danger: 5 Condor Heroes (Best Odds: $3.50) is the big watch here. Very talented colt that resumes for Gerald Ryan who has been eager to be viewed by many. He has only had one race start, which came in the Breeders Plate during the Spring where he led into the fierce headwind and he ran an absolute beauty but was no match late for Khan. Trial recently here was high class and if we do get rain, keep in mind he won a trial by 10 under a hold at Randwick in the Spring on a Soft 7.
Long Shot: Find it very interesting that 12 Go Daddy Go (Best Odds: $61.00) was scratched from an easier race on Wednesday at Warwick Farm to make his debut here. One of the first runners for the new training partnership of Anthony & Edward Cummings, and though his trials have been nothing flash, you have to respect the stable when they throw them in the deep end.
Race Four (14:25) : Chandon S Magic Night Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Have to go with the proven performer which is 1 Tulip (Best Odds: $4.40). I thought she was the one to beat in the Blue Diamond and she appeared to truck up well, three wide with cover, but she just lacked the turn of foot of those around. Sound effort, but no match for Catchy. This looks a significant drop in depth, and now with the run under the belt, she’ll be better off.
Big Danger: 14 Alizee (Best Odds: $6.50) is the close relation to Astern who is the big watch here. Has looked like a star at the two trials, with a debut run at Randwick in between behind Villa Carlotta. On one hand, you could say she was unlucky not to finish closer, but on the other, she didn’t exactly ping when clear. Trial last week here was very good and she is being highly talked up. I’ll respect the noise and what I’ve seen at the trials.
Long Shot: 15 La Chica Rosa (Best Odds: $14.00) is the very interesting runner here. Chris Waller trained juvenile who comes here off a little freshen up where she debuted at the Valley on January 27 where she should have bolted in but just had no luck in the straight. Trialled here last week and looked very good to my eye in winning. If you were going to have a speck on the Slipper, this could be the filly.
Race Five (15:00) : McGrath Estate Agents Sky High Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: 9 Antonio Giuseppe (Best Odds: $1.85) is a star stayer that is my early tip for the Sydney Cup. He resumed over 1500m here several weeks back where he was hard in the market and didn’t let the punters down with a strong win. He can only improve off that, especially the rise in trip. Just looks the one to beat and heading forward.
Big Danger: 2 Magic Hurricane (Best Odds: $10.00) comes through the Chipping Norton (1600m) at Randwick a fortnight back where I thought he was very good in defeat behind Winx. Should have clearly run second, but just had no luck getting a split when he needed to get clear. Up to 2000m looks ideal and being third up, he should be ready fitness wise.
Long Shot: 5 Libran (Best Odds: $13.00) is the improver here to my eye. He too comes through the Chipping Norton where he was just simply well short of his best behind Winx and couldn’t really pick his feet up on the bottomless surface. Perfectly suited up to 2000m and back on a firmer footing. Should take some beating if he shows anything of his best form.
Race Six (15:35) : Cellarbrations Phar Lap Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: 9 Foxplay (Best Odds: $1.95) is a star filly for Chris Waller who has returned in excellent order this time in. Has contested the two 3YO Fillies races during the Autumn, starting off with a narrow second in the Light Fingers before a game fourth in the Surround. Looks ideally suited up to 1500m and most importantly, gets back onto a firmer surface.
Big Danger: 2 Bezel (Best Odds: $8.50) was just too bad to be true when resuming in the Eskimo Prince, finishing down the track behind Man From Uncle after being an alarming drifter late in betting. Has been freshened up and looked to trial very well here last week. If he brings his best form, he’s right in this.
Long Shot: 6 Comic Set (Best Odds: $8.00) looks a key threat here off the back of a very impressive win under the lights of Moonee Valley where he was back near last in a slowly run race yet came the widest on the turn and though he took a few strides to really wind up, gee he was good to the line and strong. That should see him cherry ripe for this assignment and looks well above average.
Race Seven (16:15) : Coolmore Classic 1500m:
Back Me: With the weight and amount of upside she has, I just don’t see how they can beat 14 Omei Sword (Best Odds: $4.00). She had many issues leading up to her first up run in the Surround (1400m) where she opened around $4 and got to $10. In the end, it was pilot error from Hugh Bowman that cost her the win. She did an amazing job to get as close as she did. Tumbles down to 52.5kg now, Avdulla steers and given the amount of scope she has…I think she just wins.
Big Danger: I think some awful tactics from riders flattered the dominant win of 2 Dixie Blossoms (Best Odds: $6.50) in the Guy Walter (1400m). She was handed the lead on a platter and nothing wanted to go near her, and once Clark was allowed to dictate, it was game over and she dashed right away. Sub 36 for the final 600m on the Heavy 10 shows you how easy it was early on. Was that too soft of a run? Not sure, but she is all class.
Long Shot: Prepared to forgive 8 Danish Twist (Best Odds: $16.00) for her failure in the Guy Walter. She just couldn’t relax under Schofield and gave him a horror rider, and given the amount of energy she spent doing that, she was left with nothing for the finish. She is at her best when she has cover and launches late. If she is exposed too early, put a line through her.
Race Eight (17:00) : Hyland Race Colours Ajax Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: The jury was somewhat out on 2 Arod (Best Odds: $6.50) after a big flop fresh in the CF Orr behind Black Heart Bart but he bounced back in a strong way a fortnight back in the Liverpool Cup when a game second to McCreery after chasing a hot speed. Third up now at 1500m looks perfect and the big tick is that he gets firmer footing.
Big Danger: 10 New Tipperary (Best Odds: $7.50) also comes through the Liverpool Cup and he did appear to travel really well in the run, but when Chetwood sprinted and Avdulla asked for more, the wheels just span. Effort wasn’t too bad all things being equal. Desperate to get into the Doncaster and needs to win this, so I am tipping Joe Pride will have him wound up.
Long Shot: 11 Floodlight (Best Odds: $19.00) is the very interesting runner here. Former French galloper for Godolphin that is now with John O’Shea with seemingly some lofty ambitions. His overall record is okay, but I wouldn’t say it’s form to jump up and down about. Trials have been okay, and first up at 1500m suggests he might be forward enough to run a race here.
Race Nine (17:40) : Tab.com.au Handicap (83) 1900m:
Back Me: 10 Wine Bush (Best Odds: $2.90) was an eye catcher first up at Warwick Farm against the older horses before racing over 1800m here where he really struggled to make ground on the biased track but was far from disgraced behind Dawn Hall. Form out of that has been very good with Impavido running a beauty in the Randwick Guineas. Looks a smokey for the Derby and I am confident he can measure up here.
Big Danger: 5 Hogmanay (Best Odds: $4.40) is a consistent galloper for Chris Waller who has seemingly been in work forever but continues to race very well this prep, rarely putting in a howler. Stepped up to the 2000m last time out and fought on really well behind tearaway winner Dark Eyes, who franked the form by winning the Canberra Cup. Back to 1900m on his home track is ideal and Innes Jr is back on.
Long Shot: 9 More Energy (Best Odds: $26.00) is the interesting runner here. On the back for Jason Coyle after running in the National Sprint at Canberra on Sunday where he got back in the run and just stayed there seemingly behind Gold Symphony. Quickly up to 1900m, but he has fresh legs, upside and has put together some good efforts on soft ground.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 14 Omei Sword
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Single Bullet
VALUE: Race Nine Number 10 Wine Bush
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 9
Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 8, 11, 14, 16
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 11
Leg Four: 5, 9, 10
$50 Investment= 9.95% of the dividend if successful
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