11/3/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Adelaide Cup day

A bumper nine event program has been assembled for Morphettville on Monday for Adelaide Cup Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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4 Bogues (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the one to beat. Liam Howley trained three year old that comes to town off the back of a maiden win over the mile at Bendigo where he sat on speed before being clicked up by Childs and away he went, gapping them for a dominant win. He has good room for improvement and up to 2000m, J Kah, he’ll take beating.

9 Crimson Vine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key chances. Matty Seyers trained mare that has come back in really good order. She ran over 2100m at Gawler last time out where she looked all over the winner when presented but just found one better in Sandastan, who goes around in the Adelaide Cup. hard fit and at 2000m, she appeals.

2 Havaduel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday on the Parks track when just off the speed and he tried his guts out but just lacked the change up speed to go with them late in the piece behind Karaka Kiwi. Not sure he wins, doubt he wins, but can pinch a first four spot.

6 Mintulee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me. Ryan Balfour trained filly that ran last Saturday on the Parks track when doing work to land on speed but she was trucking in the run before being clicked up and she dashed in the straight, maintaining a safe margin to the line in winning. Looks the leader and I don’t see 1100m being an issue. Hard to run down.

3 Miss Subtly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a couple of runs for Phillip Stokes and has been solid each time. This mare ran at the midweeks at Gawler last time where she did work to land on speed and credit to her, she was there to be run down but she found under pressure to fend them off, win and win well. Good test but confident she measures up.

7 Noble Magnate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a former Team Jolly trained gelding that has had a couple of runs for Kym Healy. He had two runs during the Kangaroo Island Carnival, placing each time, both runs having good merit. Has run well at Saturday metro previously and this isn’t a deep race overall. Must for exotics.

4 Boognish (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy mare for Clarken/O’Shea that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Sep 29 when placing at The Valley behind Farhh Flung in a solid effort from off the speed, not beaten far. Given a good break and his trial win last week at Gawler was very strong. Better suited over further but he has a touch of quality.

1 Bon’s Your Back (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been excellent in two runs back for Tom Dabernig. Strong winner fresh at Mount Gambier before proving that was no fluke when giving them a start and a beating at Stawell in an impressive display. Maps perfect and despite creeping up in the weights, hard to knock how he’s racing.

9 Storyteller (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Michael Hickmott trained three year old that resumes. This guy did a solid job in his first prep, though it was an end of prep run when down the track behind Bristler. Trialled well enough at Gawler to my eye and the stable is starting to find form after a virus outbreak. Watch the market.

1 Jenkins (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited back in trip for Phillip Stokes. He ran a fortnight back over 1800m here when getting a suck run in transit and he tried his guts out but just didn’t run the trip out behind Marimenko. Back to the mile looks ideal and with a class edge, to an extent, he commands respect.

3 Ghetto Superstar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Wasn’t too bad in defeat fresh at Ballarat before going to Sandown where he got back from the inside gate and just couldn’t get involved behind Lethal Thoughts. Like him up in trip and this isn’t a deep race, plus he is a winner at the track.

8 Whiskey N Women (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous. Jordan Frew trained gelding that is several weeks between runs since racing over 1550m on the Parks track where he got back from the gate and was never a factor behind Pearl Adios. Drops a fair bit in grade/depth and he does have a good track/distance record.

2 Easy Dun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could be top shelf. But this will be a good guide because there is depth to this race I feel. That said, the arrogance of his debut win at Bendigo was that of a beauty, the change up speed and the way he put them away the last 200m was something else. Fitter and up to the mile, I think he has a few lengths on them.

1 Air Assault (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the local and class horse. Resumed against the older horses in the City Of Marion and for a horse who has eyes on the Derby, I thought he ran an outstanding race in defeat behind Snapped. Jumps straight to the mile but he’ll eat it up and if the fav is off his game, this guy will be there to pick up the pieces.

10 Poppin’ Champagne (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Price/Kent. This girl broke her maiden tag at Moe over the mile when leading throughout. She looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted, winning quite comfortably. Good test here against some likely types but should press forward and gets J Kah.

9 Thirsty Guest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a progressive horse heading in the right direction and in an open race, he’s the way I am leaning. He resumed three weeks ago over 1400m on the Parks track where he just looked in need of the run and while he didn’t win, he kept finding the line in a solid return behind Wild Imagination. Fitter and up in trip, main track, weight relief, rates highly for me.

4 Meridius (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. He ran a slashing second in the Magic Millions Cup behind Semana at the Gold Coast before having several weeks off and racing at Flemington a few weeks back where he used the inside gate and settled much closer in the run but couldn’t quite finish the race off behind Jennilala. Better for the run, he has the quality to run well.

8 Tapinforpar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at the mile but it’s hard to knock how well he’s racing. Loved the way he dug in when required to win last Saturday on the Parks track over 1400m, getting better as the race went on. I think with a soft trip, 1600m is okay and he’s very genuine. Must for exotics.

5 Skelm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems a massive price IMO and is worth an each way ticket. This guy ran at The Valley last time out in the Torney Night Cup where he got back in the run and was forced wide on the turn but I really liked the way he kept finding the line behind Monbaher, finishing fourth. Has run well in this race previously, has upside/timing and will be strong late.

4 The Map (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is clearly the one to beat on form and a win here could set her up for the first Tuesday in November. She has been excellent in two runs back, the latest in the Lord Reims when second to Yellowbrick Road. No issue with two miles and J Kah, who rode her to victory in the Spring, is back aboard.

13 Oceanic Flash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an Andrew Payne trained gelding that is knocking on the door. several weeks between runs since racing over 2400m at Caulfield where he got off the speed but was tracking into the race with purpose and loomed but couldn’t quite go on with it behind Wertheimer. The run prior here was strong and hard fit, he can run a cheeky race.

9 Austmarr (Bet Now:  $SP.00) just has to stretch his brilliance to 1100m and I think he’s the winner. Dominant win over 1000m at Sandown last time, producing sustained speed from the front and giving nothing else a look in. This race has somewhat been thinned out after scratchings and with his on speed racing style, he’s likeable.

5 Grey River (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented mare for Jon O’Connor that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since October 14 when far from disgraced in the Northwood Plume behind She Dances. Given a good break, has trialled up really well leading in and strikes a winnable race. Watch the market.

12 Anjopin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good second up record so I am not dismissing him. He resumed two weeks back over 1200m at Morphettville where he was near the speed and being first up, he couldn’t sustain the run and condition gave way in the straight. Back in trip I find interesting but with good speed in front, fitter, he will be strong at the end.

9 Wonderful Rayray (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a gelding that I think has an engine under the hood. First run for Matty Seyers came last Saturday on the Parks track here where he tried his guts out on speed but couldn’t quite see it through, tiring late behind Zebella but stayed on to run third. Fitter, D Lane, he’s around the mark I am sure.

8 The Great Baby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy animal resuming for Francis/Kent. This gelding did a really good job during the Winter/Spring, establishing himself as a Saturday class horse and looking progressive. Trial work leading in has been strong and he gets in well after the claim. Leading chance.

17 Nullify (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. This girl has had a few homes throughout her career and now finds herself with Bain/Taylor. This girl is first up and although she is better suited over a bit further, she has trialled well enough leading in to my eye and this isn’t a deep race so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Easy Dun

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Bogues

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 5 Skelm

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 6, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 13

Leg Three: 5, 9

Leg Four: 2, 8, 9, 17

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful.

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