10/8/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Racing returns to The Valley this Saturday where nine races have been set down. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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8 Pitchanun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) saves her best for The Valley. Total forgive at Sandown last time where she struggled on the bog so forget she went around. Firmer deck looks more to her liking, she loves this track and prior form suggested a win was near so for mine, she can bounce back.

1 Electric Impulse… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) what on earth was last start. J Allen can produce a howler and this was one. Can understand why he went forward then dragged back early, but the decision to stay in vs come outside for clear, it cost the mare a win. She’s flying and up in trip, will take beating.

2 Mistressofillusion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. UK staying mare that makes her Australian debut for Chris Waller and while she is best suited at 2400m+, we have seen time and time again that Waller can get these imports to fire, especially early on in the prep. Big market watch.

I think it will be a case of good luck beating 6 Immortal Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Danny O’Brien. She did a pretty good job as a juvenile, her last run seeing her far from disgraced behind a good horse, Feroce. Went like an absolute rocket in a recent jumpout at Flemington and looks suited to the short course. Really keen.

2 Blue Stratum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order for Team McEvoy. Market liked him when resuming on the Pakenham Synthetic and he made a mess of them, winning by a space and running decent time for the meeting. Short course type so is suited here and fitter, he appeals.

1 Zestiman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Team Hayes since racing over 1000m at Flemington when first up and though held by First Settler, he didn’t disgrace himself in defeat I thought, beaten 3.7L. He can settle on speed if need be and that spot is ideal for this track, especially after a renovation.

5 Lincoln Rocks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been quite good in two runs for the Neasham/Archibald camp. He gave them a start and beating to win quite impressively first up at Sale before going to Sandown where he got too far back in the run but really liked his finale behind Mathew. Up in trip, hard fit and gets M Zahra to steer. Happy to be in his corner.

3 Hard Squeeze (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good track/distance record and comes here off a win, letting down nicely from off the speed to win at Sandown, letting down strongly and was quite dominant late in the piece. Back to where she races best, she commands respect.

17 My Roca Fella (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on speed and give a decent sight, which is what he did at Flemington three weeks back and gave a decent sight but didn’t have the finale to go with Le Zebra. Has run well at 2500m so 2040m here is no issue, good racing style, down in the weights, appeals.

3 Ferago (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Patrick Ryan and rates highly as a key chance given he won this race two years ago. He has been pretty good since, the last start being a dominant win in the VOBIS Gold Stayers when given a 12/10 by Shinn and he was much too good. Creeping up in the relative weights but has class.

7 Dashing Duchess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Symon Wilde since sitting on speed over 2800m at Flemington and she was as game as ever but found one better in Hit The Road Jack. Drops to a moderate 78, gets M Zahra, she takes beating here.

13 Dictionary (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for John Moloney and rates highly for me. He comes through the VOBIS Gold Stayers won by Ferago. He was held up at times when wanting to build momentum but was good late in the piece when eventually clear. Had a genuine excuse for the track/distance flop but he’s flying at the moment and is a key threat.

2 Mornington Glory (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat if the track is firmer vs the Monash, where he struggled on the shifty ground behind Recommendation, and the jockey said as much post race. He is a good sprinter when right and has credits in the bank so if you can forgive last time, he’s hard to beat for sure.

1 Acromantula (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a classy short course sprinter from WA that resumes. This guy is first up and he does have a real liking for this track/distance. He hasn’t raced since April 6 when down the track in the Milan Cup behind Oscar’s Fortune, who ran super in The Quokka, so the form is super and his trial work has been sharp.

5 Scuderia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripping mare for Thomas Carberry that is first up. She saves her best for The Valley and was one of the finds of the Summer under the lights here, winning four races. Good test here, but keen to see how she goes because I think she’ll measure up.

12 Big Me (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the straight bat play for Nick Ryan. He resumed at Flemington three weeks ago where he seemingly had every chance when third to Moonhaven but that said, he wasn’t beaten far in a good return. From all reports, he worked very nicely around here earlier this week, he maps perfect and strikes a winnable race.

15 Cavallo Rampante (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Ciaron Maher since racing down the straight at Flemington where she wasn’t 100% happy on the shifty track but didn’t disgrace herself in defeat behind Moonhaven. Has run well at the track/distance previously and is one of the key prospects.

14 Our Cracklin Rosie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a track/distance specialist so I am not totally penning her. She ran over this trip on July 14 on the Ballarat Synthetic when on speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through behind Field Of Flutes. Back to where she races best, not dismissing her.

4 Interpretation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a ripping record at the track/distance and on a firmer deck, I think he can run a much improved race and does have class. He ran three weeks ago at Flemington where he found testing ground and he couldn’t quite sustain a run in the conditions behind Horrifying. He has class and on a firmer deck, he can take this out.

1 Duke De Sessa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the best horse in the race and third up, he should just about be at peak fitness. He ran behind Showmanship a fortnight back at Caulfield where he was off the speed and on testing ground, he was okay but wasn’t really threatening behind Showmanship. Hard fit, firmer deck, claim, he appeals.

8 Rolls (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. He ran two weeks back at Caulfield when on speed and he tried hard but just lacked the finale to finish the job behind surprise winner Showmanship. Fitter and up in trip, more patient steer, he should prove to be a leading contender.

9 Rackemann (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the nod. I want to be forgiving of his last start over the mile at Sandown when on speed and I just think he did too much work, tiring late behind Zoltan. I think with a more patient steer, a bunny to chase, he’ll be far more effective.

6 Spare Coin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can mix his form but his best is good enough to measure up. He was a winner at the trip two back before going to 1800m where he ran okay but just didn’t really run the trip out behind Mathew. Like him back in trip and overall, I don’t think this is an overly deep contest.

5 Angry Skies (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t win out of turn but he is an honest animal for Team Hayes that should be around the mark. He ran over 1500m at Sandown last time out. He got a sweet sit in transit behind the speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through when a close up fourth to surprise winner Zoltan. He’s a definite chance with his best.

6 Home Rule (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and take running down. He ran over 1200m at Flemington last time out when leading and giving a very strong sight but just couldn’t quite see it through when a narrow second to Mr Exclusive. Like him back to a bending track and with his racing pattern, he’ll give himself every chance.

8 Legio Ten (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a hard horse to catch at times but his best is more than good enough to take this out. I thought they rode him a touch warm three weeks ago at Flemington but that said, I thought he had his chance in defeat behind Mr Exclusive. I do think with a bunny to chase, a more patient steer, he can bounce back.

14 Beour Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good record at 1200m and her best is certainly good enough to give this a shake. She ran down the straight at Flemington three weeks back when near the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish her race off in defeat behind Mr Exclusive. Firmer deck, good racing style and back to a bending track, she can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 6 Immortal Star

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 12 Big Me

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Interpretation

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 12

Leg Two: 1, 4, 7, 8, 9

Leg Three: 5, 6, 9, 13

Leg Four: 1, 6, 8, 14

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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