10/8/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Belmont Newmarket day

3 Songaa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Mitch Pateman since an electric win at this track/distance, giving them a start and a beating, letting down with real purpose late in the piece. He does tend to save his best for Belmont and off that win, beating a good sprinter in Ginnivan, he is the one for me.

1 Tycoon Harry (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has credits in the bank to be forgiven for the first up effort. He resumed three weeks ago at this track/distance where he found the front and seemingly had every chance to my eye, being quite plain late in the piece when fifth. Off his form last prep, gee he takes beating.

4 Paddy’s Flyin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ran fourth to Songaa three weeks ago in the race mentioned above. He got back in the run and although he was never really a winning threat, he found the line and was quite good in defeat. If he can settle closer in the run, he has the finale to be dangerous against these.

Tricky 3YO race but going the way of 5 Global Trip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Adam Durrant. Son of Universal Ruler that is on debut and comes here off the back of a trial win at Lark Hill when on speed and clicked up with purpose late in the piece to win and win well. Good grounding for this race and looks as if he’ll be strong at the end.

6 Naughty Tortie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Sessions on debut for the Simon Miller camp. He trialled over 1000m at Lark Hill when wide no cover throughout but was clicked up and found, only getting nabbed late in a good piece of work IMO. Bred to be a good one so I think watch the market and see what it does.

3 Keep Ita Mystery (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Luke Fernie trained galloper that resumed two weeks back at this track/distance when off the speed and kept chasing in a solid enough effort behind Cleanemup. Better for the run and this race looks a bit on the weaker side. Can bounce back for sure.

8 Wango Award (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me. Team Williams trained mare that ran two weeks ago at this track/distance when off the speed and kept chasing, but just found one better in Ginger Green, who had control in front an was too strong. Bursting to win and I think she gets a great chance here IMO.

2 Ginger Green (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Steve Wolfe. He has won two on the bounce, the latest being a fortnight back in the race mentioned above. Paul Harvey took him to the front, got complete control and was too good in a strong effort. Creeping up in the relative weights but hard to knock the way he’s racing.

4 Mountain Ash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He resumed over 1300m here two weeks back when wide no cover for the trip and that hard run told late in the piece when down the track behind Little Silver. Better set up here and his absolute best is good enough to be dangerous.

3 King Cartel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me. Loved his win here last Wednesday, leading throughout to win over 1400m here. He was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Harder here, and a query at the trip, but he’ll give himself every chance.

1 Special Sort (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be around the mark for Adam Durrant. He attempted to lead throughout over the mile last time at Pinjarra and he gave a decent sight from the front but he couldn’t quite see it through on the testing track. IMO he’s a better horse with a bunny to chase.

Fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks for 4 Thorogood (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He resumed over 1300m here where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out when down the track. Better set up here, I am not dismissing him.

1 Russian Sniper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems the straight bat play for me. Adam Durrant trained gelding that came back to 1000m two weeks ago where he landed in a plum spot and he was too good in the run to the line under a confident steer from Pike. 1200m should be fine, maps perfect again and only has to hold his form to take beating.

3 Invincible Ruby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous if within range. Too far out of her ground a fortnight back over this track/distance but her finale was quite good in defeat behind Sentimental Belle. She has that 1200m run under the belt and if she can get three wide cover, she has the finale to be a threat.

8 Salt Lake Shake (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Both runs back have come over 1000m here, the latest run being last Wednesday when seemingly getting chance in transit and couldn’t quite finish the race off behind Made In Mexico. Hard fit and up to 1200m, dangerous for sure.

2 Cosmic Chaos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unknown at the trip but he’s racing as if he will appreciate it. He is a few weeks between runs since giving them a start and a beating to win over 1700m at Pinjarra, letting down with purpose late to win and win well in an impressive effort. He’s come back in super order and I am happy to take a gamble on him.

1 Queen Of Jerusalem (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in a purple patch for Adam Durrant that has earned a crack at Saturday metro level. She was a strong winner last Wednesday, getting a suck run in transit before angling clear and knuckled down with purpose late to win and win well. Confident she can measure up.

9 Expelliarmus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable if this track can be on the firmer side vs last time, when racing at this track/distance on a bog and he struggled to pick his feet up in the conditions behind Royal Elite. Firmer deck, his best is more than good enough to be dangerous.

The wet track is the only thing stopping me from declaring 4 Tenacious Reward (Bet Now:  $SP.00) a good thing, I loved his return over 1300m here, getting a mile out of his ground but loved the way he closed off behind Miss Drakova. Fitter, up in trip and can settle closer in the run.

7 Deferred (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Simon Miller. 2/2 this time in, both over 1200m here and while the margins haven’t been massive, she has found a way and kicked hard to get the wins. The query is 1400m for sure but hard to knock a mare who is unbeaten this prep.

All you can do is win and that is what 6 No Brainer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done in two career outings, firstly on debut at Bunbury over 1100m before going to 1300m here when on speed and found under pressure. Good test here against likely types but I think he can measure up.

I am leaning towards 3 Man Crush (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Most of these clashed two weeks ago in the Bolton Sprint, where he ran second to Boots Like Bruce. He was on speed throughout and tried his guts out but just couldn’t quite get the win. Getting towards peak fitness now and has class.

5 Boots Like Bruce (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be rated as the one to beat given how dominant he was in the Bolton Sprint. Admittedly he had the 1/1 sit but even allowing for that, he was outstanding and won by a space. Much harder here with a tricky map, but hard to knock him and the way he’s racing.

6 Saloon Bar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order for Dan Morton. He ran third to Boots Like Bruce in the Bolton Sprint, getting back in the run and while was never really a winning threat, his finale was more than sound in defeat. Dangerous if he can settle closer in the run.

8 Brave Strike (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a query at 1200m but she maps perfect and the stable think she’ll be fine given she was nominated for the 1000m race but instead runs here. She ran two weeks ago over 1000m when off the speed and kept finding the line when third to all the way winner Ginnivan. The depth here is not as deep IMO and she has a touch of class.

3 Otheroneson (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Luke Fernie trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up and is in a new camp after formerly being with Dan Morton. His last run was June 18 2022 when fourth to Devoted, who has since gone on to be a Stakes class horse. The long time off is very interesting but moved well in a recent trial win. Watch the market.

7 Leniency (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Safeguard resuming for Colin Webster. His last run was Feb 17 at Pinjarra when back in the run over 1400m and did make up some ground late in the piece behind Multinational. He does tend to race well early on in a prep and his trial work to get ready has been encouraging.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 8 Wango Award

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Tenacious Reward

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 8 Brave Strike

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 9

Leg Two: 4, 7

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6

Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 8, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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