10/4/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm, Easter Monday races

Easter Monday racing in Sydney heads to Warwick Farm. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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4 Head Of The Heard (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top in a race that has two chances IMO. GaiBott trains this colt, that is on debut off the back of a couple of trials this time in, winning them both, and what has impressed me is that when he has been asked for an effort, he has responded very well and been strong to/through the line. Should land on speed from the inside draw and prove hard to run down.

11 The King (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the right form to give this a shake. He debuted on the Kenso track at Randwick and I thought he worked to the line really well from off the speed when second to Libertad, who went on to win the Kindergaten, so the form has been well and truly ticked off, he has the run under the belt and will be strong at the end. The key and I think only threat.

12 Zimo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Written By colt for Annabel Neasham that is on debut. This guy has had two trials this time in to get ready for start one, the latest coming here when fifth and seemingly moved well enough to my eye despite being beaten 4.5L. Has a tricky draw to overcome but stable is flying with their juveniles so I’d watch the market and see what it does.

I am a bit surprised that 12 Rubikins (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is such a big price. Chris Waller trains this beautifully bred filly, that is on debut. She is by Rubick out of former top class mare Catkins, and great to see the Grey of her come out in this filly. She’s had two trials to get ready and each time, she has moved very well under little riding and to my eye has had plenty up the sleeve. Bred to handle give in the track and at near $20, she is worth an each way bet.

3 Dipsy Doodle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is getting close to D-Day for James Cummings. She has had two career outings with a spell in between. She resumed on the Kenso track and bumped into a very nice horse in Kimochi where she led and fought on pretty well in defeat to run third. Her late splits were just fair so the end of 1100m is a query with her but no denying she has talent, enough to take this out.

7 Left Field (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Mark Newnham trained filly, a stable that is absolutely flying at the moment. She debuted in the Kimochi race mentioned above where she got off the speed and while she was never a threat, I liked the way she found the line late in the piece to run fourth, beaten just over two lengths. If she’s within range on the turn, she’ll be hard to hold out I’d suggest.

2 Secret Glamour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be too good for these surely. Maher/Eustace trained mare that is a few weeks between runs since contesting the Manion Cup at Rosehill where she didn’t get really get a chance to build the revs so while she ran 7/10, she should have finished closer and potentially fight the finish out. Back to a moderate 78, J Mac on…she should be beating this lot.

3 Yarrawonga (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Resumed with a solid second at Canberra before going here where he was on speed throughout and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Deniliquin. Hopefully the track will be firmer for him this time around, hard fit, good racing style, he’ll run a bold race.

8 Brynner (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage and one thing I have learnt is that dismiss a Warwick Farm horse at Warwick Farm at your peril. His last couple of runs have come at 2000m and each time he has got back in the run and worked to the line with purpose, clocking decent enough late splits, suggesting a rise to 2400m will be ideal and he won’t mind sting out of the track.

1 Ausbred Flirt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top in a two horse race. This mare was thrown in the deep end when resuming in the Birthday Card on Slipper Day and I thought she ran a super race in defeat behind Zapateo, making up headway against the pattern. Back to a moderate 72, even allowing for the 6kg weight rise, she has good upside, right form lines…the one to beat.

3 Kay Teez Command (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very, very interesting runner. Former Kiwi that makes her Australian debut for Chris Waller, having not raced since 2021 when putting together a couple of sharp wins on the bounce. She has clearly had her issues but no denying she has the talent under the hood and I thought her trials this prep to get ready have been more than encouraging. Market will tell you if she’s ready.

7 Newley Wed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Savabeel for Team Hawkes that resumes. She hasn’t raced since December 3 at Rosehill when back off the speed and kept on in a solid effort behind Danish Prince, beaten just under two lengths. Just one soft trial to get ready for the return but she can sprint well fresh and take away the first two, the race is on the thin side.

7 Money From The Sky (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems a big price here I feel and for me, has to be an each way bet. He has been an enigma since day but it seems this prep they are fair dinkum about him being a race horse given he returns to racing as a gelding. You look at his overall form, gee it reads well for a race like this, and he has closed off with real purpose in both trials to get ready. Likely spots them a start but think he’ll get a drag into the race and be strong at the end.

14 Yasuke (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a bit of quality about him and commands respect for the Maher/Eustace camp. He has been freshened up, having not raced since the Autumn Classic when down the track and seemingly struggling at 1800m behind Pericles. Had a tick over trial on Monday and I thought moved pretty well behind Air To Air. J Mac on, he is hard to beat.

11 Saveadateforme (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be a big improver here for John O’Shea. He resumed over a month ago at Randwick on the Kenso track where he was a bit on the plain side in his return when down the track behind Ka Bling. Tick over trial last week at Randwick was solid enough to the eye and off his form last prep, he’s certainly good enough to win a race like this.

12 Amortal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to pick himself with this race being depleted after scratchings. He comes back to Sydney after a hit-and-run mission to Doomben where he tried hard from just off the speed but had to settle for a narrow second to Stormy Rock, who ran well in defeat on Saturday at Doomben, so the form reads well, he is back home, J Mac on…all points to him.

10 Miss Kojiki (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a ripping mare for Todd Howlett and she seems to have come back in career best form. Dominant win fresh under the lights at Canterbury before being freshened up and going to a Midway at Rosehill and I thought did a good job from off the speed when fifth to Lancaster Bomber. To me, she seems a big price given how well she is racing and the fact this race, overall, is thin.

8 King Of The Castle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) resumes for Joe Pride and is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He had two runs last prep, starting around this time last year, and each run had merit to it. He looks a 1600m-1800m horse so 1100m is clearly on the short side for him but his trial behind Malkovich was a decent price and is trained here, so I wouldn’t pen him.

3 Lord Ardmore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be a clear favourite here and $7/thereabouts at the time of writing looks a big price. He resumed in the Doncaster Prelude and given the way the track played, he was zero hope, but he was very good all the same and his late splits were excellent. Drops miles in grade/depth, J Mac on, kinder map, good second up record…just all points to him running very well.

13 Silent Agenda (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Joe Pride and commands respect. He was a few weeks between runs when winning at the midweeks on the Kenso last time, sitting off the speed before Nash eased him into clear air and away he went for a strong win. Gets right down in the weights after the claim for Lloyd and I think they’ll make sure this is a truly run mile. Hard to beat.

Fitter and up to to the mile are two big ticks for 6 Otyrar (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He resumed over 1400m at Rosehill where he was back near last in a sit/sprint, and just couldn’t get involved behind Tamerlane, so I am very forgiving of that effort. Gets a much better set up this time around and if the inside gate is used to advantage, think he can be dangerous.

20 High Plateau… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) how good is he? 2/2 to start his career for James Cummings, winning on debut at Kembla before proving that was no fluke with another sharp win, this time at Hawkesbury. The form out of both races has been suspect, but he has the Godolphin polish, he finds J Mac and strikes a winnable metro race IMO. Happy to be in his corner.

18 Lavish Empire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Mark Newnham trained gelding that resumes and he looks the main threat. Stable is flying and this guy did a good job in a two run prep in the Summer to start his career, winning by a space on debut at Canterbury before a narrow second in a solid race at Randwick. Just one quiet trial to get ready, but the way the stable is going, you can’t ignore anything they are saddling up.

1 Rebel Shadow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage and should be better for the first up run, which came at this track/distance where he got back off the speed and just ran out of condition in the straight when fifth to Rita May. He’ll take good improvement from that and does have a good second up record so I think he can run a much improved race against these.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Lord Ardmore

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Secret Glamour

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 12 Rubikins

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 7, 11, 12, 14

Leg Two: 12

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 1, 3, 18, 20

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