10/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Hill Smith Stakes day

A strong nine race program has been assembled for Morphettville this Saturday where it is Hill Smith Stakes, potentially a lead up for the Victoria Derby. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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3 Jacobite Prince (Bet Now: $4.20) on top but not a great deal of confidence in the opener. Phillip Stokes trained gelding that is seven weeks between runs since a strong and impressive winner over 1200m on a somewhat rain affected track, lifting late under Toeroek to score. Tricky draw, but he’s tough and will be strong at the end.

7 Kayseri (Bet Now: $3.00) is flying this time in for the Jolly camp. Impressive winner here two back before racing on Balaklava Cup Day last Wednesday when doing work to land on speed and tried hard. Just couldn’t finish it off when second to Masterati. Good record here and is a leading contender against these.

Can 1 Brimarvi Vehero (Bet Now: $6.50) stretch his brilliance to 1100m? He’s best known as a short course 1000m horse, but this is a winnable race and suitable to test him out at six furlongs. He comes through the Star Hills race from a fortnight back on the Parks track and on face value, have to mark him down as disappointing when running sixth, but he’s better than that and has credits in the bank.

Hoping that this track has some give in it for the hopes of 3 Arkham Knight (Bet Now: $5.50). John Macmillan trained gelding that loves a track with cushion and that is what he should get here. Ran over 1300m on the Parks track two weeks ago and worked home strongly late when fourth to the in form Alsvior. Back to 1200m is a little query, but to offset that, there’s good speed engaged and Paul Gatt takes over.

2 Ef Troop (Bet Now: $3.80) has to be given another chance. He was kept quite safe in betting when resuming in the Whylie three weeks ago, but I thought Vorster rode a really poor race on the gelding. He rode to beat Garner and was hellbent on making sure that horse was wide in the run, but in return, he did his chances no good at all with those tactics. If he runs his own race, his best is clearly good enough.

5 Magna Bella (Bet Now: $7.50) is a talented mare who could bounce back against these. She resumed over 1100m on the course proper here where she was really well backed, but didn’t really fire a shot from back in the run and you’d have to mark her down as disappointing. Good second up record, so expecting a bounce back.

With confirmation he is running, I’m in the corner of 5 Somerset Maugham (Bet Now: $1.65). Danny O’Brien trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since landing good bets to win over the mile here under a confident steer on speed from Todd Pannell. The rise back up in trip looks ideal and should lead these for fun. The one they have to beat.

4 Classy Joe (Bet Now: $6.00) is the definition of a beauty. John Hickmott trained gelding that has been up forever it seems but gee he’s just racing so well at the moment. Two weeks between runs since slogging it out best to win over the 2250m on the Parks, edging them out in a tight go to the line. Back in trip no issue given how fit/in form he is, and the depth here, as a whole, ain’t strong.

1 Master Chum (Bet Now: $6.00) is the huge query here. For the first time this prep, he has been put into a race where he can win. I’d put a line through his run in the Balaklava Cup, with Eran Boyd telling Stewards post race that she thought the horse went amiss hence why he was tailed off last. He is the class and it will carry him a long way.

11 Vancouver Velvet (Bet Now: $4.80) for me. Macdonald/Gluyas trained gelding that resumed three weeks ago where he was one of the rank outsiders but despite having no friends in the market, he ran well, closing off nicely from the back in the small field when second to the impressive Quietly Discreet. No horse of that quality here, so he’ll take some beating.

4 Deep Speed (Bet Now: $3.10) is a very interesting runner here. Team McEvoy trained son of Deep Field that is on debut. He’s just had the one public trial to get ready, which came a couple of weeks ago at Gawler when a close up fourth and I thought he went about his business quite nicely, so I think he’s a definite market watch here.

8 Sellix (Bet Now: $11.00) has had a few chances to break the maiden tag but is honest and usually thereabouts. That was the case when he resumed over 900m at Murray Bridge last Wednesday, doing plenty of work on speed and fighting on pretty well in defeat, finishing a close up second. Not sure he will beat these, but he’s honest.

5 Fearless Vision (Bet Now: $4.80) is one of a number of runners that sum up the Michael Hickmott stable at the moment. She resumed over 1000m on the Parks track two weeks ago and it was pretty much a barrier trial for her. She absolutely bolted up and won as she pleased under Eran Boyd. Harder here, but she looks more than capable.

2 Great Leveller (Bet Now: $10.00) is suited back to 1100m for Jon O’Connor. Good resumption when third to Mileva over 1000m before stepping up to 1250m two weeks ago and I think the quick rise in trip, as well as bumping into a smart one in Quietly Discreet, brought him undone. Back to 1100m and back in overall depth, hard to beat.

7 Riched (Bet Now: $26.00) looks more a short course horse so back in trip is a positive I feel. Team Jolly trained three year old that comes through the Quietly Discreet race from a fortnight back where he was outclassed and never really a factor behind the Stokes filly, beaten over four lengths. Back in trip, he can bounce back for sure.

2 Ritratto (Bet Now: $3.30) has found some winning form and could well go on with it. Mick Huxtable dropped him in grade/depth two weeks ago on the Parks track and the move was a winning one, because the former one time SA Derby contender showed class late to draw clear and win well despite doing plenty of work in the run. His best is clearly good enough to win this.

This looks good placement by the Price/Kent team with 4 Zende (Bet Now: $4.50), who finds a very winnable Saturday metro race. Ran on a testing track at Ballarat last time out and was brave in defeat when third to the well performed galloper Polanco. That form reads okay for a race like this and the claim certainly helps.

10 Sowpods (Bet Now: $11.00) has an awful racing pattern but I reckon Gordon Richards has him going well. Met with strong market support when racing on the Parks track two weeks ago but couldn’t take advantage of gate one, getting back to near last in the run before flashing home late when third to Maid In Milan. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take some beating.

4 Ain’tnodeeldun (Bet Now: $2.15) does look a good thing against this lot. Not sure he beat much last time out in a Sale maiden, but it was the arrogance in which he put them away that impressed me, drawing right away late to win by five and he smashed the clock relative to the day. Warning got beat in that same maiden last year before winning the Derby. Think this guy can win the Maiden, win this and come back here next year and win the SA Derby.

Michael Hickmott has a quality bunch of up and comers in his camp, one of which is 7 Talamo (Bet Now: $8.50). Gave them a spanking to win first up at Murray Bridge before racing on the Parks track when heavily backed and nothing went right for him at all. Think with clear air, he goes close to winning when fifth behind stablemate Oath Of Omerta. Hard to beat up in trip with upside to come.

9 Casino Seventeen (Bet Now: $51.00) rises significantly in grade/depth, but he was an impressive winner of a maiden last time out at Gawler, his first run in over five weeks, so you’d like to think there is improvement to come. Good enough to beat the Freedman horse? I’d say no, but he’ll put himself on speed and try hard.

7 Salome (Bet Now: $8.00) has the strong form around her to get away with this. Formerly with the Maher/Eustace camp but is now based in SA under the care of Will Clarken. Last run for the former stable came over 1100m at Hamiilton on a near bottomless track when third to Mischa in a strong 58. That form is good enough to win a race like this.

Put a line through the last start effort of 4 Akkakan (Bet Now: $11.00). On face value, he was ordinary, but considering the winner went sub 34 for the last 600m, those from the back had no chance, including this nine year old. Prior form suggested a win was close by, so think you have to give him another chance against these.

10 Two Odd Sox (Bet Now: $14.00) is a son of Reward For Effort for the Shayne Cahill team that resumes. This gelding is first up, having not raced since May 13 at Gawler when wide no cover throughout in a total forgive behind Beeokay. Has jumped out well leading in, he can pull out a run fresh and 58 does seem to be his right grade.

You’re banking on the stable getting him right, but if they do, 3 Deep Force (Bet Now: $3.80) has the class/quality to put these away. Team McEvoy trained gelding that is first up, having not raced since April 9 at Pakenham when down the track in a Class One. Gawler trial was inconclusive but he’s showed enough to suggest he’s better than this grade.

4 Sunmate (Bet Now: $6.00) is back to winning form and can measure up in town. Needed a confidence boost so the stable found a weak Class 2 at Strathalbyn and despite sitting wide in the run, his class came to the fore and he drew clear late to win quite impressively. The step up to 1200m as well helped and he remains at the trip here. Leading chance.

1 Rohlon Drunk (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Jamie Opperman trained gelding that can mix his form but there was good merit to his performance on the Parks track last time out. Sat near the speed and fought on strongly. Just couldn’t hold off the finale of Maid In Milan. Not sure how strong that form is, but has to be given a knockout chance.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Ain’tnodeeldun

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Arkham Knight

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 Salome

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 10

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 10

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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