A strong card of racing has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday where it is McKell Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:25) Southern Cross Turf Handicap 1100m
I think you have to believe what you see when it comes to the debut win of 5 Exceedance (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) at Wyong. Came from an impossible position at the top of the straight to round them up and win impressively to the eye and the clock agreed. Three lengths quicker than the other 1100m maiden, her last 600m was just 0.01 seconds slower than River Bird as fastest of the entire meeting, her last 600m was three lengths quicker than anything in the race, but what I loved was the last 400m. 400-200 was 11.47 but then her last 200m she went 11.38, which was over four lengths quicker than anything else in the race.If this was 1200m, no betting. Just hoping they aren’t too sharp for her over 1100m here.
8 Rotator (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Not A Single Doubt resuming for Chris Waller. This girl tried to force her way into the Slipper by winning the Widden on debut, but just missed out on the win when beaten a lip by Amercement. She then went to the Pierro Plate where she was wide with cover and battled away well in defeat behind Tenley. Two trials leading in have been good, home track and has a touch of quality.
I’m a big fan of 4 Sun Patch (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) for Ron Quinton. Won like a very good horse on debut on the Kenso track before going to the Skyline to see if he was a Slipper contender and he ran well but wasn’t quite up to them, the race won by Microphone. Comes here with just one soft 800m trial under the belt which leaves me thinking he might find a couple of these too sharp, but if they go silly and he’s close enough, he’s certainly classy enough.
Race 2. (12:00) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1400m
Got the Tuncurry blinkers on and cheering for the local 9 Onemore Sapphire (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS). I know Terry Evans was very confident about this horse winning first up on his home track, but the market said he might need the run, certainly paraded that way and that’s how he raced, looming to win but just running out of puff late. Last run last prep ran a ripping third to Haames in a Highway which has produced several winners. Second up, should improve with the run and is a leading chance in a tough race. Just wish it was further than 1400m.
Very interesting runner is 6 Damselfly’s Kept (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS), a former kiwi mare resuming for Mitch Beer. She won a couple of races in her first Australian prep and was even tested at Saturday metro level where she pulled up with a poor post race recovery behind Sexy Eyes. Looked sharp enough in a trial win over a Highway performer and noted sprinter Yousay Bolt. Stable can get one ready first up, so I think keep tabs on the market.
There has always been a bit of a wrap on 15 Palais De Louvre (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) but it took a while to break the maiden status. That maiden win came last time at Mudgee where she was ridden on speed under Ash Morgan and she gave nothing else a look in, spanking her rivals by nearly five lengths. The time was a couple of lengths quicker than the other 1200m maiden on the same day and only a length slower than the Benchmark 66 on the same day. If she continues on from that, she can threaten.
Race 3. (12:35) My Mate Mulvey's Sprint (74) 1200m
Really have little to no idea in this race. Back in trip and freshened up interests me when it comes to 6 Restrained (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS), who failed over the mile last time out against the older horses at Warwick Farm behind Vega, which did follow a couple of hard runs. Has had a month off and did trial well over 800m at Hawkesbury behind Drachenfels. Soft gate, he’ll be strong late if they go silly in front.
Interested to see how 1 Ljungberg (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) goes. Handy three year old for Ron Quinton who dodged the Autumn Carnival and returns in the off season. Stable thought he could be a player during the Carnival but after failing behind Vegadaze over 1400m, he was tipped out. Would have thought 1000m/1100m would be an ideal kick off point, but resuming at 1200m tells me he’s ready to go and his recent Hawkesbury trial was quite good.
I don’t think 10 Exceltic (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is far off a win. Took on the older horses first up and was far from disgraced behind Brook Magic on the Kenso track before racing over 1100m here two weeks back where he got back, wide with cover and surged late to run fourth to Hostwin Supreme. 1200m third up looks an ideal set up and he’s certainly got the ability to win.
Race 4. (13:10) Turf Drain Australia Handicap (88) 1200m
Returning to this level will suit the Joe Pride trained 1 Passage Of Time (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS). Impressive winner two back on the Kenso track before contesting the BRC Sprint where he did a bit of work to land on speed and faded out of it late but was far from disgraced behind Tyzone. I reckon he’s returned in really good order and I’d just forget last run. Go on previous form, which sees him as a leading contender.
12 Kawaikini (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a talented daughter of All American resuming for the in form Jason Coyle team. This mare hasn’t raced since Feb 1 at Canterbury when a somewhat unlucky runner in the straight when a close up fourth to Waltzing Willie. Been given a good break in readiness for her resumption and her two trials have been strong, the signs showing she could well improve on her outstanding first up record with three wins from four fresh attempts.
7 No Doubt (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is third up from a spell here for the Anthony Cummings stable and I think he’s going really well. It was an ugly watch on the Kenso track last time behind Passage Of Time. Should have placed but just had no luck in the straight when seemingly full of running. He needs clear air and a good tempo, and if he can get that here, he’ll run a positive race.
Race 5. (13:50) Dad & Dave's Turf Handicap (78) 1400m
9 Reelem In Ruby (Bet Now: $2.20) for me. Talented filly for Team Snowden who ran at this track/distance two weeks ago where she looked a good thing on paper and was ridden accordingly by Tommy Berry, with the in form hoop putting her into a good spot just off the speed but with that being done, her finale speed was taken away and she had to grind, which she did late when headed by Strome and would have won in another bound. Confident she can return to the winners list.
The Anthony Cummings stable is absolutely flying at the moment and his mare 15 Constellations (Bet Now: $9.00) looks above average. Made a mess of them to win the maiden two back at Newcastle before going to the Strome race from two weeks ago where she was very good in defeat when running third. She’s a beauty to look at, well bred and is putting it all together now. Definite threat.
Possibly one run short is 13 Zavance (Bet Now: $41.00) but this Team Snowden trained filly does have ability. She resumed last Wednesday at Canterbury where she drew the rail and couldn’t really muster speed to take advantage of it, which sealed her fate, but she found the line well late for a filly clearly wanting further. Maybe one more run away, but a win wouldn’t totally shock.
Race 6. (14:30) High Quality Turf Handicap (78) 1300m
12 Kapajack (Bet Now: $2.30) on top. Team Hawkes trains this three year old, who I was quite keen on when resuming on the Kenso track four weeks ago where he seemed to get the good run behind the speed and presented to win but Zonk just proved too sharp on speed and was impressive while Kapajack probably just lacked the dash. Suited up to 1300m on his home track and stable is in form.
Giving 13 Dyanmited (Bet Now: $10.00) one last look. Was three weeks between runs when racing over 1100m here a fortnight back where he got a mile out of his ground in a race probably not suited to him, won by Hostwin Supreme. Gets the Blinkers on to sharpen him and steps up to 1300m, so don’t think the tempo will be as strong this time around. He can win if he brings his A game.
Could make a small case for 11 Fuel (Bet Now: $27.00) here at odds. Wayne Wilkes trains this galloper, who has run well in town and for the first time this prep does appear placed in his right grade. He was excellent first up at Grafton with the 64kg impost before going to the Luskin Star at Scone where he chased the hot speed and faded out of the finish behind Trekking. Back to 78 grade, third up, if he can land on speed without spending petrol tickets, he could be dangerous.
Race 7. (15:10) McKell Cup 2400m
The jury was somewhat out on 9 High Bridge (Bet Now: $23.00) after being really poor in three runs during the Autumn Carnival, so Chris Waller freshened him up and he contested the Lord Mayors Cup, where he had the soft run out the back and peeled out to present. Didn’t really change gears in the straight but stuck on and was quite good in defeat. He’ll love the rise to 2400m and has upside.
12 High Opinion (Bet Now: $10.00) is yet to win this prep but I reckon Kris Lees has him flying. Toughed it out really strongly two back in the Wagga Cup when beaten narrowly by Abdon before racing over 2200m at Scone last time where he was wide throughout and was entitled to drop away but kept finding and was very good in defeat behind Free Fly Too. 2400m should be no issue, gets weight relief, hard fit and in form.
1 Destiny’s Kiss (Bet Now: $21.00) is a veteran campaigner for Joe Pride who is usually around the mark in these kind of races. His effort in the Lord Mayors Cup wasn’t too bad I thought. Never really a winning threat on paper given the track was dry, 2000m is short of his best and the depth was strong, but he was okay in behind the main pack. 2400m is more his go and the forecast for potential rain on Saturday brings him into contention.
Race 8. (15:50) SCG Handicap (88) 1500m
He’s always a tease fresh is 15 Asterius (Bet Now: $4.00) and he did it once again when resuming over 1400m here two weeks ago. Got back from the wide gate but was given a sweet steer by McDougall and was there to win but just lacked the race fitness and turn of foot that Something Fast had, but was more than sound in defeat. Up to 1500m second up, he appeals.
12 Strome (Bet Now: $6.00) is absolutely flying this time in for Gary Portelli. Super winner first up at Gosford (Metro) before placing on the Kenso track before racing here two weeks back when given a 12/10 steer by Robbie Dolan but I think she half turned it up when hitting the front because she does seem more effective with a bunny to chase, which allowed Reelem In Ruby to get close on the line. If she has something to chase here late, she can win again.
Expecting a much better run from 4 Gresham (Bet Now: $14.00). He resumed behind Desert Lord two weeks ago and on face value, he was disappointing, but he was first up off one soft trial and looked in need of the run, with his condition giving out late. He’s a real second/third up specialist, when he comes into his own, and does race best when on speed, so expecting an improved showing.
Race 9. (16:30) Living Turf Handicap (78) 1100m
I think 1 Drachenfels (Bet Now: $12.00) is one of the better gambles on the program. I know it is only trials but Bjorn Baker has him flying IMO. This five year old has had two trials in readiness for his return. The Kembla trial he could have won if Collett sneezed on him before going to Hawkesbury last week and I loved the way he attacked the line from off the pace to win the trial. Proven weight carrier, just needs normal luck and he’ll only run well.
14 Spiritual Pursuit (Bet Now: $2.40) has already been well supported and easy to see why. Smart filly for Jason Coyle who had a three run Summer/Autumn prep, her third run seeing her split Baller and Prophet’s Thumb, which just reads so well now. Has looked great in a couple of trials and despite drawing wide, she can use her early speed and get over pretty comfortably and prove hard to run down.
I’m assuming the stable wanted the claim with Drachenfels which is why Collett is riding the stablemate 7 Oneness (Bet Now: $6.00). If Collett has elected to ride this horse over Drachenfels, I am really respecting that fact given the way that horse has trialled. Oneness resumed during the Scone Carnival and was very good in defeat, chasing hard throughout when second to Akasaki. Soft gate, fitter, likeable.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Passage Of Time
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 9 Reelem In Ruby
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Drachenfels
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 10, 11, 12, 13
Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 9, 12
Leg Three: 4, 12, 15, 16
Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 12, 14
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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