1/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Festival Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday for Festival Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

2 Krameric (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) clearly for me. Chris Waller trains this colt, who is being aimed at the Gold Coast Magic Millions. Debuted in the Breeders Plate and ran a beauty in defeat I thought when third to impressive winner Dubious. Been given a break and I thought his recent Warwick Farm trial was outstanding. He’ll likely get off the pace but be strong late.

1 Sebrakate (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a handy colt for the Hayes/Dabernig team who won 2/2 to start his career in Adelaide before racing over 1200m here where he couldn’t quite dash when they sprinted in front but stayed on and got close to Kiamichi. Back to 1100m off a genuine tempo looks more to his liking for mine.

9 Torched (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a son of Zoustar on debut for the Hawkes camp. Trialled at Cranbourne last Monday and led all the way to win narrowly under little pressure. Time was quickest of the three 800m trials for the babies that morning but significantly slower than the other 800m trials, which is a little concern, but overall, he looks talented.

13 Gongs (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is the big watch. James Cummings trains this filly, who comes back to Sydney after running in several Stakes races during the Melbourne Carnival where she was okay without threatening. Drops a fair bit in depth here for mine and given the form around her, gee I think she’s nearly thrown in at the weights and on breeding, a wet track would be no issue.

8 Skyray (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) looks a really progressive horse for the Clarry Conners team who resumed at the midweeks at Hawkesbury where took on a decent field but made them look second rate with a commanding effort and powered to the line, clocking some very slick late splits. Has run well in town before, and from a good gate with J Mac on, he appeals.

3 Lagerfeld (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) has been up forever it seems for the Maher/Eustace team but he’s racing in great form. Couple of sharp wins at the provincials in Victoria led to him having a crack down the Flemington straight on Stakes Day. Beaten but far from disgraced behind Order Of Command. If he can land on speed without doing too much work, could run a race at odds.

5 Noble Boy (Bet Now: $2.70) looks a good prospect for Todd Blowes. Debuted at Albury over 1175m and got the job done there before going to Goulburn where he won again and ran sharp time relative to the day. The debut win has seen three subsequent winners and the Goulburn has saw the runner up win on Goulburn Cup Day, the third horse placed at Canberra and the fourth horse won at Bong Bong, so there’s ticks everywhere re the form and J Mac booked is a great lead.

1 Coup De Main (Bet Now: $3.90) is a fascinating runner. Danny Williams trains this progressive four year old, who is first up and looks to be a leading contender for the stable re Country Championships. Had three runs in the latter part of the Autumn to kick off his career, winning his first two before a game third in a Highway at this track/distance. Might be soft in condition, but Danny knows what he’s doing when it comes to these races.

15 Sheza Danza (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Terry Robinson trained mare who was well supported when resuming at Goulburn and though the runner up was wide no cover throughout, the dominance and arrogance from this mare late was most impressive, winning with something in reserve on the line. Draw isn’t too bad after scratchings and stable does have a good record in these races.

This just looks the perfect race for the Chris Waller trained 6 Savacool (Bet Now: $2.00). Thought she was heading to the Matriarch a few weeks ago but instead the stable sent her to the 1800m on Oaks Day and she was a most impressive winner. She has failed at 2000m and beyond in the past but she seems a much better horse this time around.

Kim Waugh produced a great training effort to get 3 Our Century (Bet Now: $4.40) to win first up in the November Topaz over 1900m here two weeks ago. Given a lovely ride by Jason Collett, he waited patiently to let the horse down and he proved too good. The positive is he has a stack of upside. The negative is that he wore off Abdon narrowly, and beating off Abdon isn’t something you’d want at the top of your CV.

1 Destiny’s Kiss (Bet Now: $9.50) is a grand campaigner for Joe Pride who is having another prep during the Summer being aimed at the different Cups both in town and at the provincials. Hasn’t raced since the City Tatts Cup at Randwick where he closed off from the back in a very game effort when third to Exoteric. Think whatever he does here, he’ll improve, but I think he goes into all exotics.

Now his confidence is up, I am hoping 5 The Bandit (Bet Now: $4.00) can go on with it. He looked the winner a long way out last Thursday over 2500m at Randwick under J Mac and the horse absolutely bolted in. He seems to have liked the quick back up and hopefully the stable have unlocked what goes on with him upstairs.

1 Tamarack (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Joe Pride trained stayer who looks to be racing in near career best form at the moment. Last couple of runs have come at this track/distance, being most disappointing two back before putting them away impressively last time. Creeping up in the weights, but he’s a hard fit/in form stayer.

9 Equipped (Bet Now: $10.00) isn’t a horse I could back to win, but perhaps for a first four spot I could include. He ran in the 2500m race at Randwick last Thursday where he was specked and looked to travel well but couldn’t finish it off behind The Bandit. Probably better suited at the provincials, but he could sneak a first four spot.

I like 3 Grande Rosso (Bet Now: $19.00). Team Snowden trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since the Sale Cup where he got a mile out of his ground but I liked the way he finished off behind Doubt Defying in a race which has turned out to be a decent form reference. Back to Sydney, on the fresh side, in what looks a very winnable race, he’ll do me each way.

4 Pecans (Bet Now: $4.40) is a really good mare for the Joe Pride stable who resumed on Oaks Day in the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury where she was well supported and under a confident steer from Jason Collett, the mare surged late and got the win. Good second up record and the big tick will be if the track has give in it.

9 Goodfella (Bet Now: $6.00) is an interesting runner. Bjorn Baker trains this four year old, who last raced on Everest Day over the mile where he was well beaten but far from disgraced when third to Stampede. Not really a good fresh horse, but does have residual fitness, and could get a good time of it on speed if ridden that way.

Well I think this race is all about 1 Deploy (Bet Now: $6.50) and where he is at. If he’s right, he wins. Gerald Ryan trains this very good sprinter, who hasn’t raced since resuming in the Southern Cross in the Autumn where he was dreadful but was later found to have had bone chips. Has had the surgery, dodged the Spring and comes here off the back of two less than convincing trials, but he’s never really been a star trialler.

The WaterBott team tried to get 2 Invincible Star (Bet Now: $3.80) up as a Group l horse and a contender for the Everest, but she’s just simply not up to the top level against the big boys and girls. Speed demon who finished down the track in a hot edition of the VRC Sprint Classic. She’ll lead and look the winner. Last 50 will be the acid.

If they overdo it in front, look for 7 Sir Plush (Bet Now: $11.00) to be warming to the task. I am hoping they ride this horse cold because if they ride on speed, he’ll be no chance. Rode with cover when at this track/distance a fortnight ago and was a real eye catcher, closing off with purpose to run third to Isaurian. Definite for exotics.

10 Mapmaker (Bet Now: $6.50) is a clear threat. Tim Martin has this horse going really well at the moment. Pipped on the peg by Schubert two back in what has turned out to be a decent form reference. He then ran here two weeks ago when wide no cover on speed but despite the tough run he fought on very well when beaten narrowly by Sweet Deal. With a more economical run, he can threaten.

I like 8 Revenire (Bet Now: $3.70) as a horse. I think put a line through the run down the straight at Flemington. 62kg, big field, straight first time, was just a messy set up and that’s how the race panned out. Really good weight relief and up to 1300m, back on a bending track, the runs prior were very good so giving him another chance.

13 Intueri (Bet Now: $21.00) is a son of Dream Ahead for the Hawkes camp that resumes. This bloke teased on a number of occasions during the Winter but couldn’t get the job done and he really has been a frustrating horse to follow. Quiet trial here a couple of weeks back but he can sprint well fresh, so maybe one for a first four spot.

If there is natural improvement from the resumption, 2 Gaulois (Bet Now: $3.90) looks one of the better gambles on the program. Resumed over 1300m here three weeks ago and had no hope of winning given the tempo and how slow it was, but he made ground and was very good behind Dyslexic. Tempo will be more genuine this time around, Bowman on, he looks the winner.

A genuine 1500m is a concern with her but 5 Sexy Eyes (Bet Now: $3.60) is flying for Chris Waller. Bolted up two back at Randwick before racing over 1500m here where she had to dig in late but eventually got the win, running some very sharp late splits in the process, so she’s got the zip in the legs it seems. Will she run a very strong 1500m? Time will tell.

4 Tip Top (Bet Now: $9.00) could be a big improver. Was big in condition first up, so forgive him for that. Thought his run last Saturday was quite good from the back in an on pace dominated affair. Drawn gate three, he can sit much closer in the run, and if the track has give in it, he’ll be fine. Potentially heading to the Villiers, so would want to be showing something positive here.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 5 Noble Boy

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 6 Savacool

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 10 Mapmaker

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2

Leg Three: 4, 8, 10, 13

Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 12

$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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