1/1/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Perth Cup day

A bumper nine event meeting has been set down for Ascot on Sunday, headlined by the Perth Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out a metre for the entire circuit.

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Perth Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Perth Cup

There looks to be a bit of depth to this line up. 2 King Cartel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) does look to have a good engine under the hood. He trialled last week at Lark Hill and went through his gears like a nice horse, sitting near the speed/fence before Parnham clicked him up and away he went to win and win nicely with something in hand. Bred to be better over further, but I think he has enough sharpness in the system to prove hard to beat on debut.

Luke Fernie is usually very good with his juveniles so with that in mind, you do have to give respect to 7 Shadow Fear (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She won a trial at Belmont over 1000m where she sat behind the speed before easing off their heels and as the trial went further, she got better and moved very well late in winning the trial. Stable finds Pike to steer, and despite a tricky gate, she rates highly.

4 More Special (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the race experience/fitness under the belt to run well at start two. Debuted two weeks back here where she did work from a wide gate to land on speed and was entitled to knock right up but I liked the way she kept finding the line when third to all the way winner Shell Bell. Extra 100m should be fine and is tough, so she’s in the mix.

2 Saloon Bar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 1400m. He has had two runs back from a spell, not being suited by the race shape first up behind Street Parade before stepping up to 1200m where he got shuffled back from the inside gate and was never a factor but liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Goddess Of Giving. Proven at the trip and hard fit now, just needs to be within range and he’ll look the winner at some stage I’m sure.

3 Feels Playful (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems to be enjoying life under Mitch Pateman. Both runs this time in have come over this trip, first up being a game second to Rock My Way, a progressive animal. She then came to this track a fortnight back in a maiden and she gave her rivals a spanking from the front. There is a bit of depth to this line but hard to knock the way she is going.

1 It’s All A Rumour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited up to 1400m. He ran over 1200m here two weeks back where he was back near last in the run and spotted them a tidy start. Never a threat but was solid enough to the line behind Goddess Of Giving. Has run well at this trip when last in work and again draws tricky, but he is a three year old with talent that can beat this lot with luck.

3 Born To Talk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to beat. Close up third fresh at Northam over 1100m before going to 1200m at Belmont when leading and giving a solid kick but just felt the pinch late, nabbed by Sunny Honey. He has run well at 1200m before but I reckon at metro level, 1000m is his go, and with his racing style, I think he’ll take beating against this lot.

Back to 1000m is a big tick for three year old filly 2 Costume Party (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She ran two weeks ago over 1200m here where she had the suck run behind the speed and loomed to win but six furlongs at this level just found her out, but she was far from disgraced in defeat. She seems a much better horse suited at five furlongs and overall, this is a very thin race.

8 Nobellity (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is to include for wider multiples. She ran last Saturday at this track/distance where she was near the speed throughout and was there to threaten in the straight but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Ornamental Belle. I doubt she has the class/quality to win, but with her racing style, I think she’s a sneaky first four spot at a price.

3 Astro Warrior (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not much of a race IMO. He resumes for Hayden Ballantyne, having not raced since September 3 when attempting to lead throughout at Belmont and battled on really well in defeat behind Let’s Galahvant, who of course went on to win the Hannans, so that form clearly reads well. Has won fresh before and finds a thin race. He’s the one they have to beat.

5 He’s Gold (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited back up to 1200m. Game second at this track/distance first up before going back to 1000m where he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Bitofmerit. That last run was November 26 so over a month between runs and at 1200m, it tells me he is ready to go, so I’d watch the market and see what it does with him.

8 Wakan Tanka (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is getting on in years but is still maintaining a healthy zest for racing, as seen when a winner over 1400m two back at Pinjarra. He then went to 1500m here last Wednesday where he was chasing from the outset and was solid enough behind Yemen Lass. Back to 1200m I find interesting but is hard fit and will be one of the strongest late.

6 Conquered Zone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me each way. He’s been pretty good in a couple of runs back from a spell. Resumed with a good effort over 1400m here behind Stellar Vista before going to the Grandstand Cup at Pinjarra and was good late from the back behind Dani Bella. Hard fit now and getting to the mile, doesn’t lose a great deal with CJP riding and he will be one of the strongest late.

3 Mosquito (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the map horse and is racing well. Ran here last Wednesday where he was chasing from the outset behind tearaway leader Yemen Lass and while he was never picking up the winner, I liked the way he kept finding the line to finish third. Should be able to get into a lovely spot from the inside gate and has the good grounding to prove hard to beat.

5 Yemen Lass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to beat. Peach front running steer from Warwick saw her win last Wednesday, where she rolled at a good clip, got going on the turn and that move enabled the mare to have a break and hold a margin to the line. There is a bit of depth to this line up but will likely lead this field up and give a good sight.

It’s hard to get away from 3 Alsephina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Team Williams. Looked a moral two weeks ago in the Starstruck over the mile and was always in control under Pike, angling clear at the right time and going through her gears nicely to win well. The query is 1800m, but with a soft gate again, should get a lovely run in transit and has the runs on the board. She’s the one to beat again.

7 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the back up after a strong win here last Saturday over 1500m where she sprouted wings late after getting held up, seeing clear and driving hard late for a big win. Has run well at 2200m so 1800m here looks ideal. Tricky gate and may be spotting them a start but if she’s within range, she has the engine to give this a shake.

Fitter and up to 1800m are two big ticks for 5 Sentimental Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She resumed in the Starstruck where she had the suck run behind the speed and was there to threaten but being fresh and wanting more ground, condition just gave way behind Alsephina. Really good second up record and 1800m will be no issue with her given she is a 2000m+ horse. One of the main threats behind Alsephina.

4 Acromantula (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a flat track bully who is a lead or bust horse. He found the front three weeks ago at this track/distance and once he did, it was race over and he was strong to the line late in winning. He is also a very good dry track horse and this track will be on the firmer side with the lead there for him, hard fit and in form, it’ll take a good one to get past him.

2 Indian Pacific (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a 1000m horse and with relatively fresh legs, he is suite here. He hasn’t raced since the Winterbottom where he attempted to lead throughout but a high pressure 1200m found him out, finishing last to Paulele. Much better suited at 1000m and I think he’ll get on speed comfortably. If there is petrol left in the tank, he’ll take beating I’d suggest.

7 Long Beach (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Gangemi trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since October 29 when far from disgraced in defeat behind a quality mare, Sniparoochy, and not quite measuring up to be a Winterbottom horse. He’s a horse who can sprint well on the fresh side and his recent trial was a solid enough piece of work. A win wouldn’t shock at all.

15 Truly Inspired (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the runs on the board now and Pike sticks. Gave them a start and a beating in the ATA, sitting last in the run before easing to the outside and in a driving go, he finished best. How strong is that form though? Not entirely sure, but after a very lean Carnival, the Cerise/White are starting to find their groove so he is one of the hardest to beat.

He’s been up forever 2 Buster Bash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but gee it’s hard to knock the way he’s going. Worked too much on speed in the Railway and dropped out to finish near last. The stable then stepped him up in trip in the Towton Cup and the end result was a dominant win, which was surprising to me given the Railway looked an end of prep run. Holds his current form, he’ll take beating.

14 Stafford’s Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on track I feel. He ran midfield in the ATA but I thought should have finished a touch closer. He didn’t really get a chance to build momentum in the straight and seemingly had more to offer. He’s been a working progress with an eye towards the Perth Cup and not sure whether Parnham chose this guy over Alaskan God, or got sacked…either way, this guy is going well enough to give this a shake.

15 Roch Legacy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) lacks the quality of some of these, but he is a gelding bursting to win a race and will be strong late. Ran two weeks ago over 2100m here where he got a fair way back in the run and worked to the line with real purpose late in the piece behind Queen Alina, who I like in the Perth Cup, so I am banking on this form standing up, and with Parnham taking over, he appeals big time.

4 Coolth (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was trying to force his way into the Perth Cup via the ATA last Saturday and was kept quite safe in betting, but had his chance and was a bit on the plain side behind Truly Inspired. The depth here is nowhere near as strong and back to benchmark grade, off the form prior, that is good enough to take this out I’d suggest.

3 He’s A Parker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates interest. Formerly with Hec McLaren, he now finds himself with Summer Dickson, a stable that have a good record with cast offs. His last run came in the Scahill when back and failed to fire a shot when down the track behind Marocchino. This stable can be dangerous with these horses when having a first run for them, so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Alsephina

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Saloon Bar

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 15 Roch Legacy

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg Three: 2, 3, 10, 14, 15

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 15

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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