New Years Day racing in Melbourne heads to Flemington for an eight race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Standish Handicap 🏆: View the Odds and Field for the Standish Handicap
Bagot Handicap 🏆: View the Odds and Field for the Bagot Handicap
Race 1. (14:25) New Year Sprint 1000m
Like 2 Dauntless (Bet Now: $5.50) in the opener. Team McEvoy trained filly that is on debut and she has looked pretty sharp in a couple of jumpouts. Latest one came here and saw her lead throughout, going about her business really nicely I thought in solid time. Don’t think this is a strong two year old race and she can get away with this one.
On breeding alone, 3 Frost Flowers (Bet Now: $4.40) commands respect. Daughter of Frosted out of a talented mare in Itameri that debuts. Her latest jumpout came here last Thursday. She was near the speed and went to the line reasonably well without jumping up and down. Stable has to be respected with their juveniles.
1 Andaluisa (Bet Now: $12.00) has race experience on her side. Debuted over 1000m at Bendigo where she sat off the speed before peeling wider into clear air and I liked the way she finished her race off when second to Rusheen. Race experience is very much valuable in these kind of races and John Allen steers. Win wouldn’t shock at all.
Race 2. (15:00) Welcome 2021 (bm70) 2000m
Think double figures is a fair enough price to find out if 17 Zoulah (Bet Now: $10.00) will run the 2000m out. Good in defeat fresh over the mile at Morphettville before having that same set up a couple of weeks ago and really…it was in the mix for the slaughter of 2020. Horrible ride from Vorster and with a clear path, she likely wins by a couple of lengths. Racing as if she will eat up the 2000m and gets Jamie Kah to ride.
3 Playoffs (Bet Now: $10.00) is a progressive stayer that is heading in the right direction. He ran at the midweeks over 2000m at Caulfield when just off the speed before peeling into clear air and winding up hard late, just missing out on picking up Astraeus, who had the track pattern in his corner and was too good, just. Playoffs has improvement to come and will be better for that 2000m run under the belt.
5 Doroza (Bet Now: $15.00) is racing quite well at the moment for Matt Cumani and I think has to be respected here. Ran a few weeks ago at Pakenham where he was pretty much the lone survivor of those near the speed and battled away really well when fifth to Zachaz. If he can get a slightly more economical run in transit, think he’ll be dangerous.
Race 3. (15:40) Bagot Hcp 2800m
5 Tralee Rose (Bet Now: $2.70) looks a relatively safe option in a thin race. Symon Wilde has this mare going super at the moment. Was going for four on the bounce when she raced over 2500m here last time out. Loomed to win and looked home for a few strides, but was nabbed late by Miyake. Gets good weight relief for a mare and a bit of give in the track if the rain forecast is right won’t hurt her chances.
2 Djukon (Bet Now: $10.00) does appear as if he has been set for this race. Six week freshen up prior to racing over 2600m here. Had the peach sit near the speed and once presented, looked the winner. Just think his condition gave out late. Gets Olly steering and given his record, he is really well in at the weights I feel.
8 Saint Eustace (Bet Now: $9.00) can prove hard to beat for the Price/Kent team. Ran in an open handicap at Flemington two weeks ago, on the quick back up, and I thought he was a touch on the unlucky side behind Wentwood. Not sure he was going to win, but should have finished closer. Off that, 2800m here is fine, and the depth, as a whole, isn’t strong.
Race 4. (16:20) Standish Hcp 1200m
Fitter and back home, I think 4 Sirius Suspect (Bet Now: $3.40) can win again. Saab Hassan trains this gelding, who was near a good tempo at Pakenham a few weeks ago, his first run since Cup Day, and he was just too tough and too good for his rivals in a great display. Should be better suited down the straight. Hard to beat.
1 Graff (Bet Now: $6.00) has class on his side and that will carry him a long way here. Has been kept on ice since getting a mile back and making up ground late in the VRC Sprint Classic behind Bivouac in a good effort behind the star sprinter. Does seem to race best with fresh legs and his two runs for the new stable have been excellent.
7 Albumin (Bet Now: $20.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. Ryan/Alexiou trained grey that resumed a few weeks ago over 1100m at Rosehill. Had the suck run behind the speed and for a few strides when he got clear, he looked the winner. Was run down late by Pandemic, who was outstanding last Saturday, so he has good form yet is the rank outsider.
Race 5. (17:00) Summer Twilight Series (bm78) 1200m
3 I’m Telling Ya (Bet Now: $7.50) saves his best for the straight course at Flemington so I think can be a big improver here. Narrow second at Flemington on Stakes Day to Leiter before going to Pakenham where the track had a bit of give in it and he just struggled throughout. I’d be forgiving of that effort. Off the resumption, he’s going to be one to watch for late.
Fitter and weight relief I do like for the Michael Moroney trained gelding 7 Alburq (Bet Now: $5.50). Resumed over 1200m down the straight a few weeks ago at Flemington where he sat back off the speed and worked home okay without really threatening behind Memphis Rock. That race rated poorly for the meeting, but this guy does have quality when right and has upside.
10 Modear (Bet Now: $8.50) certainly has the engine under the hood to give this a shake. Patrick Payne trained mare that resumed at the midweeks at Sandown where she sat back off the speed before peeling into clear air and I loved the way she let down, sprinting hard late to record a strong first up win. Off that effort, has to be respected here.
Race 6. (17:40) Victorian Jockeys Assoc.-bm70 1400m
6 Kuramae (Bet Now: $12.00) looks a big improver here at odds. Matty Williams trained mare that is four weeks between runs since resuming at Pakenham where she was nearer the inside, which was quicksand for the meeting, so be forgiving of that outing behind Metronome. Better suited here and won at big odds second up last prep at this track/distance.
2 Shahzade (Bet Now: $6.00) has returned in really good order for the Freedman camp. Could easily make a case to say she should have won fresh at Pakenham. Just got held up at a vital stage when wanting to get clear and build the revs. Got out late, charged and just missed. Any hint of improvement off that and she’ll likely win. Just the gate concerns me.
13 Maggie Miss (Bet Now: $20.00) can be a big improver here. Liked her at odds last time out at Caulfield and on face value, she was pretty ordinary behind Hearty Lass, but was found to be lame post race, so there were excuses for her. Nearly $20 here seems good overs for this mare, Williams sticks and the Blinkers are back on.
Race 7. (18:20) Off The Track Program (bm70) 1700m
5 Hasseltoff (Bet Now: $3.60) for me in what looks a two horse race. Been a real model of consistency this time in, his latest run coming at this track/distance where he was given a 12/10 by Lane and looked the winner, but in a tight finish, the photo went the way of Independent Road. Maps much better than that horse here, Kah rides, run of the race…hard to beat.
7 Nikau Spur (Bet Now: $3.50) looks progressive and heading in the right direction, do have him as the main threat, but gee he’s short enough. Yes, very good at the Valley last time when bolting up, but it was a maiden, and overall, I’d say a very thin maiden. He’s got upside though and is in the right camp, plus Johnny Allen sticks.
6 Highland Jakk (Bet Now: $9.50) should be suited here for Rob Hickmott. His lone career win has come over further but a likely decent tempo will help his cause. His run at Flemington behind Independent Road was quite good given they really dashed home late, a set up this guy doesn’t like, but still ran well for third. Off a more ideal speed, can win.
Race 8. (18:55) Australian Trainers Assoc-bm70 1600m
Can see good speed in front here, so looking for one to sit off it and be strong late. One that I could have a speck at big odds is 12 Revlis (Bet Now: $23.00). I thought he was enormous in defeat last time out at Warrnambool, doing a stack of work out wide, four wide no cover for the trip, and really only got the staggers late. Draws soft, senior jock takes over and $61+, don’t need to have much on to make a profit.
3 Fundraiser (Bet Now: $2.90) is heading in the right direction for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Thought it was a very good effort by the horse to win at Sandown last time out over 1400m with the 61.5kg impost. He didn’t quicken like he usually can given the weight, but class got him home. He’ll be made to know he’s carrying the weight given a likely good speed, but hard to knock the way he’s going.
15 Make Mine Hennessy (Bet Now: $12.00) is racing really well at the moment for Saab Hasan, with recent efforts at the Valley. Surprised many with a dominant win there two back, but proved it was no fluke with a closing fourth behind a Saturday class horse of the future in Loveplanet. Gets onto her home track, down in the weights and will be strong late.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Sirius Suspect
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 5 Hasseltoff
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 12 Revlis
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 7, 8, 10
Leg Two: 2, 6, 8, 13
Leg Three: 5, 7
Leg Four: 3, 9, 12, 14, 15
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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