23/6/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Royal Ascot, Commonwealth Cup day

Royal Ascot 2023 continues this Friday night, headlined by Commonwealth Cup (1207m), where all eyes will be on top class three year old Little Big Bear.

Watch 📺 – Watch the Royal Ascot races live at swiftbet

Commonwealth Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Commonwealth Cup

Coronation Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Coronation Stakes

Looking at this race a week or so ago, the early markets had 10 Navassa Island (Bet Now:  $SP.00) near double figures, and that looked very big considering what she did on debut at Naas in a Group lll, getting a fair way out of her ground but rocketed to the line late when a narrow second in an excellent debut. Has that run under the belt, strong late and for an Albany, it isn’t a deep edition so I think she’s the one to bet on from a price angle.

1 Carla’s Way (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Crisford trained filly that commands respect. She debuted over 1300m at Doncaster where she led throughout and was impressive I thought because she responded with purpose when asked for the effort and drew clear late. Form out of that race has been solid, good racing style and should be strong at the end of 1200m.

2 Dawn Charger (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will put herself on speed and look to give her all. She won two back over 1000m here before going to 1200m at Carlisle where she led throughout and was there to be beaten but she found under pressure and on the line, was quite dominant in the run to the line. Not sure she has the quality to beat these but will give a sight.

From an Australian racing perspective, could a horse like 2 Little Big Bear (Bet Now:  $SP.00) put his hand up for The Everest with a win here? He failed in the 2000 Guineas before going to the Sandy Lane at Haydock where he came back to 1200m and made an absolute mess of them, producing electric change up speed to gap his rivals. Coolmore likely have Shinzo as their #1 seed for The Everest as it stands, but this guy will be making a strong case with a win here, and I think he will win here.

7 Sakheer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect off his 2YO form. He has only had one run this season, which came in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket behind Chaldean where he was quite keen in the run out the back and failed to make up any real headway, beaten seven lengths. Looks much better suited at the sprint trip and off his deeds last season, he’s good enough to take this out.

5 Noble Style (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout chance. He was far from disgraced two back in the 2000 Guineas behind Chaldean before going back to 1200m at Newbury and worked to the line well enough I thought when third to Shaquille. Stable love to target these three year old races and now with the 1200m run under the belt, it should hold him in good stead for this.

6 Okita Soushi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could potentially put his hand up for the Melbourne Cup with a forward showing here. He comes back to 2400m after resuming over 2800m where he got back in the run and while he was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off when beaten just under three lengths by Yashin. He gets Ryan Moore to steer, he’ll be strong late and has good upside.

11 Al Nafir (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Dubawi that resumes for Charlie Appleby. His last run came at Newmarket back in October when winning over 2400m. He was near the speed throughout and what impressed me about the win was that he had to dig in to win the race but the pleasing thing was that he did and found to get the job done. Resuming in a race like this signals intent so he commands respect.

15 Haunted Dream (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout here. He resumes for Ed Dunlop and did run third in the Newmarket race mentioned above won by Al Nafir, getting back in the small field and finding the line pretty well. He then went to Chelmsford and won quite well before being spelled. Another that resumes so there is good intent and maps to get a sweet run in transit.

7 Tahiyra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be rated as the one to beat. Dermott Weld has a very sharp filly on his hands here, and comes here off the back of a somewhat arrogant win in the Irish 1000 Guineas at Curragh where she tracked the speed and was absolutely trucking before angling clear and she went through her gears like a nice horse to win impressively. Runs on the board, in form, she’ll do me.

3 Meditate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a clear second pick behind Tahiyra. She ran second in the Irish 1000 Guineas and the run had good merit to it. She led and copped heat on speed, setting it up for those behind, namely Tahiyra, and was no match for her late but stuck on and was quite game in defeat. Not sure she beats Tahiyra, but should run second.

5 Remarquee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one at a big price I can entertain. Too bad to be true at Newmarket behind Mawj, getting back in the run and not making up any real headway, finishing down the track. Prior efforts were quite strong and she can be a filly that will be stronger than most at the end, so if you can forgive her for last start, she’s a big price.

2 Jackie Oh (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me in an open race. Aidan O’Brien trained filly that contested the Irish 1000 Guineas last start and while she was never a threat behind Tahiyra, I thought she found the line well enough from the back, beaten 5.5L. Ryan Moore takes over and hopefully she can be within range to finish over the top. Happy to be in her corner.

1 Dream Of Love (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key chances despite the jury being out on how well she’s going. She was down the track and plain first up in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket behind Mawj before going to the German 1000 Guineas where she led and looked to be going sweetly but when Buick asked for the effort, she found little and was plain, plodding on for third. If hse brings her best, she can win.

23 Unless (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a stablemate of Jackie Oh that comes here off the back of a maiden win, which came over the mile at Naas where she tracked the speed before Ryan Moore angked her into clear air and she got better as the race went on, drawing clear late to win impressively. Form out of that maiden has been strong and is one with good upside and progression.

5 King Of Steel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be #1 seed for this. He hasn’t raced since the Derby at Epsom where he was very good in defeat from off the speed when second to Auguste Rodin in an excellent effort. Very interesting they head this way rather than wait for a Group l a few weeks later. Either way, he has the runs on the board and for mine is clearly the one to beat.

2 Arrest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. He was favourite in the Derby at Epsom but he ran his race in the mounting yard, getting very worked up and was a beaten horse a long way out when down the track behind Auguste Rodin. If he behaves himself in the yard and harnesses his energy, off prior efforts, he is certainly good enough to take this out.

3 Artistic Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beautifully bred colt being out of former top Australian mare Nechita. He was 2/2 leading into the Derby at Epsom where he was a forgive run I thought given he lost a plate in the run, which put him off his game, and spotted them a decent start, but was good late without threatening. I don’t think a win would totally shock.

12 Radio Goo Goo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in the get out. Speed filly that is looking to make it five wins on the bounce, with the four previous wins seeing her win over 1200m, where each time she has been on speed and just been too sharp for them. The Ascot 1000m will feel like 1200m to some of these so she gets a tick there, she’s in form, good racing style…happy to be on.

28 Conquistador (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of US Navy Flag that resumes. He hasn’t raced since March 25 when a strong winner at Lingfield over 1200m when near the speed throughout before being clicked up by Planas and found under pressure, proving quite strong to the line in winning. Draws the right part of the track IMO and is another with solid 1200m form.

18 Can To Can (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will get the staggers late but will give a sight. She showed good early toe to lead over this trip at Sandown last time and gave a sight but couldn’t quite see it through when fifth to Lady Hamana. The last 200m will be her acid test but if she has a big enough break, she may have enough in hand to cling on.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 7 Tahiyra

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Little Big Bear

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 12 Radio Goo Goo

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