The barrier draw has all but dashed Craig Williams’ hopes of riding a more prominent race on That’s The One in the Australian Guineas at Flemington.
Williams is mindful of giving Caulfield Guineas winner Helmet too much start in Saturday’s 1600-metre Group One event but now concedes that from barrier 12 (without the emergencies) he will again have to ride That’s The One off the pace.
“I was hoping that as he gets over further he can go and race more forward but probably from that barrier on Saturday we can’t do much in that regard,” Williams said.
Notably, the Guineas has favoured inside runners with every winner starting from a single figure barrier since the race’s inception in 1986.
Last start That’s The One was a surprise winner of the Group Three C S Hayes Stakes (1410m) at Flemington but Williams is expecting fifth placed Helmet, who started odds-on in the event, to bounce back strongly in the Guineas.
“I am very comfortable riding (That’s The One) but the only other horse I would ride outside of him would be Helmet,” Williams said.
“I think he is the main danger especially with the barriers.
“I have confidence in my horse but Helmet’s drawn four if the emergencies are out and I will need more luck than he’s going to need.”
While Helmet is the $3 favourite to win the Guineas with TAB Sportsbet, Williams believes That’s The One ($9) can cause another upset with rain forecast for the rest of the week.
The track was a slow six on Thursday but Williams said any deterioration would only suit That’s The One, who would be the fifth Hayes Stakes winner to land the Guineas and the first since Dash For Cash 10 years ago.
“The horse is going great and a rain-affected track will enhance his chances,” Williams said.
Meanwhile, Damien Oliver expects Sabrage, who finished third in last year’s Victoria Derby, to improve after a first-up eighth in the Hayes Stakes.
“I was pleased with his first-up effort and I expect him to improve for sure,” Oliver said.
“We are expecting more of him as he gets to 2000 metres and beyond but over a mile at Flemington with a big field I expect him to be running on.”
Sabrage’s trainer Mike Moroney said the Australian Guineas was a progression towards the Australian Derby (2400m) on April 14 via the Randwick Guineas (1600m) on March 17 and Rosehill Guineas (2000m) on March 31.
“It will be interesting to see how he goes at a mile now,” Moroney said.
“He ran a nice race in the Stutt Stakes over a mile in the spring and I think he is a better horse this time around.
“He’s a bit stronger as it was only his first prep last time and I think he has learned a lot since then.”
Sabrage is one of the outsiders at $35 but notably a trend may be emerging after Rock Classic ($18) in 2010 and Shamrocker ($31) last year were the longest priced winners since the race’s inception.
AAP TURF
