The feature race at Flemington this Saturday is the Victoria Derby (2500m), where Observer dominates betting.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2025 Victoria Derby.
2025 Victoria Derby Runner Preview:
1. Observer: Observer is clearly hard to beat after what he did in the Vase last Saturday. Admittedly he got front end control and was just too sharp for them. But, was he a touch flattered by the ride, the run he got and how easy he got it? 2040m at The Valley vs 2500m at Flemington…different beasts and while I concede he’s hard to beat, he could blow them away once again…he’s on the short side IMO from a betting perspective.
2. Highvol: Every chance at Geelong I thought and just not sure how well he’s going.
3. Autumn Mystery: Think he is a real whole in the market. He’ll stay I am sure. But not quickly and has been blessed in his past two IMO. Can’t have him, especially at the price.
4. Miewa: Can make a case he should have won the Caulfield Classic, just getting badly held up at the wrong time. He’ll love 2500m and IMO should be shorter than Autumn Mystery in betting.
5. Options: Market kept him very safe in the Vase but nothing went right for him and it ended up being an ugly watch in the end. The rise to 2500m should be fine, proven at Flemington, I think he’ll run really well.
6. Providence: Providence has shown signs of life and I think he’s the each way bet here. Observer did clock right off in the Vase, but even allowing for that, I loved the way Providence found the line. First time this prep he has had clear air, room to move and wind up, and he did that. He’ll eat up 2500m at Flemington and is hard to beat I say.
7. Azazel: Kept finding the line to win the Geelong Classic but right spot right time maybe? Not sure how strong the win was and this is much harder.
8. Arcora: Beware the unlucky runner in a bad race. Yes, can make a case he should have won at Geelong, but prior efforts were just fair.
9. O’Sheamus: Not sure he was suited at The Valley in the Vase but one balanced up with clear air, he was quite good late in defeat. He’ll love getting to 2500m here and has that sense of timing about him that he’ll run really well.
10. Amazake: Would be a moral in a 2000m maiden. Can’t see him threatening this lot.
11. Engine Of War: He was terrible at Caulfield and the vet found nothing amiss. Blinkers go on, but gee he’d want to find many lengths. I am amazed he is short as he is.
12. Matsuda: Every chance at Geelong and couldn’t get there so can’t have him here.
13. One Step Closer: Stuck on well enough in the Vase but 2500m here might be too mcuh too soon.
14. Savisanta: I think he’s the only one from Geelong to follow into this. Was jumping sharply in trip, got a fair way back, but loved the way he closed his race off in defeat. Waller in a Grand Final, 2500m is fine…a win wouldn’t shock.
15. McWoody: McWoody comes through the Caulfield Classic. The way I saw the run was two ways. For that race, I thought it was a bad ride because he went too early in taking off after a soft debut and he just ran out of puff late re putting them away. But from a Derby perspective, it was the perfect run because the debut was soft and he needed a solid 2000m hitout. He’s a good horse, and the 2500m, IMO, is no issue. He’s right in the mix.
16. Deal Done Fast: He’ll have no issue with the trip. Just don’t think he has the class.
17. Arabian Prince (First Emergency): Kept finding the line at Caulfield and will love 2500m at Flemington…just depends what start he concedes, if he gets a start.
18. Freddie Bassett (Second Emergency): Might be a Derby horse in six months time.
19. Crack A Deel (Third Emergency): He’s got an engine under the hood. But under the engine is a certain something that will need to be chopped off in order for him to show his best.
20. Super Paradise (Fourth Emergency): Pass.
2025 Victoria Derby $100 Betting Strategy:
$10 Win/$40 Place on Providence and McWoody.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $2100
Group l Strategy Return: $1501
2025 Victoria Derby Field
| No | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Barrier | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OBSERVER | Ciaron Maher | Mark Zahra | 4 | 57kg |
| 2 | HIGHVOL | Nick Ryan | Jamie Mott | 15 | 57kg |
| 3 | AUTUMN MYSTERY | Rory Hunter | Blake Shinn | 17 | 57kg |
| 4 | MIEWA | Nick Ryan | Jordan Childs | 8 | 57kg |
| 5 | OPTIONS | Tony & Calvin McEvoy | Harry Coffey | 7 | 57kg |
| 6 | PROVIDENCE | Chris Waller | Craig Williams | 12 | 57kg |
| 7 | AZAZEL (NZ) | Mark Walker | Michael Dee | 10 | 57kg |
| 8 | ARCORA | Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | John Allen | 11 | 57kg |
| 9 | O’SHEAMUS | John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | Kerrin McEvoy | 5 | 57kg |
| 10 | AMAZAKE | Ciaron Maher | Declan Bates | 6 | 57kg |
| 11 | ENGINE OF WAR (NZ) | Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) | Tommy Berry | 9 | 57kg |
| 12 | MATSUDA | Ciaron Maher | Thomas Stockdale | 19 | 57kg |
| 13 | ONE STEP CLOSER | John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | Jye McNeil | 2 | 57kg |
| 14 | SAVISANTA (NZ) | Chris Waller | Ben Melham | 3 | 57kg |
| 15 | MCWOODY | Mark Walker | Ms Jamie Melham | 16 | 57kg |
| 16 | DEAL DONE FAST | Matt Cumani | Daniel Stackhouse | 1 | 57kg |
| 17e | ARABIAN PRINCE | Michael Kent | Craig Williams | 20 | 57kg |
| 18e | FREDDIE BASSETT | Annabel & Rob Archibald | Ben Allen | 14 | 57kg |
| 19e | CRACK A DEEL | Henry Dwyer | 13 | 57kg | |
| 20e | SUPER PARADISE | Andrew Forsman | 18 | 57kg |
2025 Victoria Derby Odds
2025 Victoria Derby Speed Map
I think they’d like to ride Observer with a sit but the lead is just there for the taking on paper for him. But, the lead ups have been run at pedestrian tempos so you’d like to think something will chance their arm and look to inject tempo.
