A high quality field has been assembled for the Group l Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington this Saturday, with the race to have a huge bearing on all the big races coming up over the next month.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Turnbull Stakes.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Turnbull Stakes
2022 Turnbull Stakes Speed Map
Despite it being a big field, I can’t see too much early speed engaged, outside Knights Order, who should find the front quite comfortably despote drawing wide. Profondo can sit handy but he won’t lead and outside that, the answer is a pineapple given they all like to sit back with cover.
2022 Turnbull Stakes Runner Preview
1.Knights Order: He’s flying this horse. Surprised most with a first up Chelmsford win and backed it up with a strong third in the Kingston Town behind Alegron. He’ll lead this field up and we know that if he leads and gets control, he’s a hard horse to get past. Wouldn’t be shocked if he won.
2.Duais: I’ve been saying for a few weeks that Duais is a moral for the Turnbull. Here she is and I won’t be dropping off. She was very good fresh in the Memsie before going to the George Main where she was never a factor given the race shape but she kept finding the line behind Anamoe. Proven big time performer at the track/distance and this race has been in mind all prep.
3.Numerian: Numerian looks to be right on track for the Caulfield Cup. Resumed in the Chelmsford and yes, was suited by the pattern, but first up at the mile, the run was very good when second to Knights Order. Caulfield Cup is his target and off that return, he’s on track and commands respect here.
4.Profondo: This is D-Day for him. He needs to show positive form otherwise it’s pointless continuing racing him. He was excellent fresh but his two subsequent runs have been quite poor. The key is dry ground, he gets that, as well as C Williams. His best can see him win. Rather see him do it than backing him.
5.Great House: Great House is flying for Chris Waller and with enormous upside, he commands respect. He resumed at Flemington and was one of the eye catchers of the meeting when a close up third to impressive winner Makram. Might want one more, but that return was too good to ignore.
6.Smokin’ Romans: Got his way into the Caulfield Cup via a strong Naturalism win, so you’d assume this run will just clean out any cobwebs for that race. He’s not good enough to beat these at 2000m.
7.Milford: Big improver. Plain return over 1700m here but the track was genuinely wet and he’s a dry track horse only, so he gets conditions too suit and can roll forward if they choose to. I don’t think he will run last as the market suggests.
8.Inspirational Girl: She’s still essentially first up because she resumed in the Feehan, in what was a joke of a race in terms of race shape where they absolutely walked. The form out of that has been rank, but she’s a big improver up in trip and stable is finding form at the right time of year.
9.Chapada: He was very good late in the Naturalism behind Smokin Romans when a close up fourth, but like that horse, has eyes on the Caulfield Cup. This is surely a prep run.
10.Alegron: I’m nit sure what to make of the Kingston Town win. Go the eye, he was strong late, but he beat off what I thought prior to the race was a good horse in Benaud, but I reckon that horse turned it up, so the jury is out. The positive is that he was only second up, proven at Flemington and Olly gets on well with him.
11.Young Werther: He’s been a gunna horse for some time, but his return here behind Makram was very good. Really liked the way he closed his race off to finish fourth. If he can use the inside gate to advantage, he’s a sneaky chance.
12.Gold Trip: I reckon this guy is on the same page as Profondo. Contender or pretender time. Even allowing for the weight pull, he was there to Smokin Romans away but couldn’t get past him. Break between runs yes, but I thought given his class, he would have got there. J Kah is a big jockey booking…I’m just staggered he’s favourite.
13.Crystal Pegasus: He looks outclassed. Was keen on him running well in the Naturalism but he struggled to pick his feet up on the bog track. Much better suited at Flemington on a firmer surface but he hasn’t got the class/quality to beat this lot.
14.Luncies: Resumed on his deck at Newcastle in the Cameron and was very good in defeat when second to Wild Chap given he was at an unsuitable trip and the track was heavily biased towards the inside, where Wild Chap was. Not sure he’s good enough to threaten, but should find the line nicely.
15.Maximal: He’s a good horse on dry ground and he gets that here. Track was too wet and race shape was against fresh in the George Main behind Anamoe. Much better set up this time around and getting B Melham to ride at 54.5kg is a good lead. Don’t dismiss him.
16.Surefire: I love Surefire as a horse and I am very keen to see how he goes on a firm deck, the first time he’ll see one since arriving in Australia. Ridden upside down in the Kingston Town so I am forgiving of that effort. Prior runs were very good so on a dry deck, down in the weights…he’ll take beating.
17.Hezashocka: Bit unlucky not to beat Makram here last time after a poor start and getting held up at a vital stage. Saves his best for Flemington, has a turn of foot…but surely he’s not up to this level? Surely…
2022 Turnbull Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
The main bet is Duais. I’ll have $60 Win on her. But I’ll have $10 Win/$30 Place on Surefire. He’s $20+ and that is a silly price.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $650
Group l Strategy Return: $375
2022 Turnbull Stakes Odds
