The Surround Stakes (1400m) at Randwick this Saturday is being built up as a match race between the Chris Waller pair of Espiona and Fangirl, but there is good depth behind them in what is the lone Group l race for 3YO fillies over 1400m.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Surround Stakes.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Surround Stakes
2022 Surround Stakes Speed Map
The WaterBott pair of Never Been Kissed and Tilianam look the main two speed influences. Shihonka and Four Moves Ahead are drawn wide and for mine, they have to go forward to be any sort of winning threat.
2022 Surround Stakes Runner Preview
1. Yearning: Thousand Guineas winner that resumes. I don’t think she’s quite top shelf despite being one of two Group l winners in the field, but her trials have been encouraging and maps okay from the draw.
2. Never Been Kissed: Trials suggest she will need the run but Group l on wet ground at Randwick is her sweet spot and she will be strong at the end.
3. Fangirl: Fangirl can win. Of course she can. It was a peach from Bowman to get her home in the Light Fingers and looks to have come back in great order, with plenty of improvement to come. If it comes down to brilliance between the pair, I want Espiona. If it’s a similar set up to the Light Fingers and Fangirl has the back of Espiona, then Fangirl likely wins.
4. Four Moves Ahead: You see often that a quality 2YO don’t grow into a quality 3YO and I think this filly fits that bill. She just hasn’t improved from her juvenile season.
5. Hinged: She’s in with a shout if the inside is okay. Did more than enough fresh in the Light Fingers and fitter, up to 1400m, if you don’t like the two big guns, she’s one of a couple of roughies you could speck.
6. Jamaea: IMO, her chance to beat the big two was the Light Fingers and she just failed. 1400m on wet ground is a genuine query even though she loves Randwick.
7. Espiona: The more #They talk up Fangirl, it means the price of Espiona will get better. I thought her Light Fingers effort was enormous. Wide throughout and exposed far too early, through no fault of J Mac, and it took a classy filly in Fangirl to nail her. J Mac will cuddle her, get a drag into the race ala Oaks Day, she’ll expose and confirm her status as a star with a Group l win.
8. Startantes: Startantes is a must include for multiples. She’s flying for Rob Heathcoate. Had to be dragged back from the wide gate in the Light Fingers but her late splits were very good in defeat. IMO, I’d love to see her in a race like the Coolmore Classic. 1500m with the 3YO weight would be perfect. Before that, she runs here and I think runs well here.
9. Zouzarella: Wide no cover in the Light Fingers and stuck on pretty well to run fourth. I think she has talent, but not quite enough to measure up here, so I’m looking elsewhere.
10. Heresy: I think her Light Fingers run is being overplayed. She did no work behind the speed and was entitled to run on, which she did. $31/thereabouts at the time of writing. I think she should be double that.
11. Shihonka: Was okay in the Magic Millions Guineas and stuck on well enough behind King Of Sparta. Tick over trial was solid enough but she’s not up to this level.
12. Sweet Ruby: Interesting to see what path they take with this girl. If she runs well, do they think of the Vinery/Oaks path, or if she fails, do they aim lower and look at the Provincial Midway Championships. She’s talented. Enough to measure up here? I’m saying no.
13: Tilianam: $101 is unders. Should be double, maybe even triple that. Not good enough against this bunch.
14. Larkspur Run: Was thinking she’d run in the Angus Armanasco at Caulfield so running here interests. It was a fast run 1200m in the Kevin Hayes fresh and she was good late. 1400m is okay I think, she swims. Not the worst in this race.
15. Ringarosa: Unlucky at Canterbury last time but she’s not up to this level. I’d say she’s more a Midway type.
16. Hope In Your Heart: I reckon the stable are eyeing off the Kembla Grange Classic. Good run against the Mares on the Kenso last time. Not good enough here but I’ll have an eye on her towards Kembla.
17 Von Trapp (First Emergency): Similar to the horse mentioned above. Not good enough here, but I think is on track for a race like the Kembla Grange Classic.
18. I’m Divine (Second Emergency): I’ve seen worse $101 shots. I don’t think she beat much at Hawkesbury but it was the win of a horse destined for better things. Straight to Group l company? I don’t think so, but a tick over trial suggests she’s flying. If she gets a run, I’d be including her in exotics.
2022 Surround Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
I’m pretty keen here on Espiona and $100 win goes on to win with confidence.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $3370
Group l Strategy Return: $8920.6
