A competitive field of eleven will take part in the feature race at Flemington this Saturday, the Kensington Stakes. Early favourite is Kaiser Sun who will be shooting for his third consecutive win but he comes against some proven performers at this level and will not find it easy. First Command, General Truce and Pocket Rockets are all resuming from spells and are at $7.50, $9.00 and $5.50 respectively.
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1. FIRST COMMAND – S Arnold (7) 60kgs
The 8yo Commands gelding returns to racing off an eleven month spell. After resuming with a 1 ¼ length win last year, he claimed this race as the 4/6 on favourite and carrying 59kgs. Has won four of nine first up and a few of those wins have been off of lengthy spells. A forward showing would not surprise.
Odds: $7.50
2. GENERAL TRUCE – A Mallyon (1) 59kgs
Ricky Maund’s 6yo will get a long way back but more often than not, he rattles home at a rate of knots. He too tackles this race first up from a spell of thirteen weeks and whilst he has only the one win from seven fresh runs to his name, he does boast five placings. The son of Brief Truce has won three from six this track/trip including a G3 victory over Golden Archer.
Odds: $9.00
3. LOVEYAMADLY – G Boss (4) 55.5kgs
Despite resuming from an eight month spell, the Bel Esprit mare was sent out 11/4 favourite for her comeback race in the Listed Doveton Stakes in early December. She finished second (1 ¾ lengths) to Vatican and then lined up in the Christmas Stakes on Boxing Day. Drawing wide, she got back in the run and was never a factor, running second to last and over a dozen lengths from the winner Karacatis. She’s a better horse than that and could easily bounce back at good odds.
Odds: $8.00
4. POCKET ROCKETS – D Oliver (9) 54kgs
Rounded out his last campaign with poor efforts in the G3 The Shark Stakes and Listed W H Wylie Handicap. Tony McEvoy’s runner prior form to the above runs was very encouraging and included a luckless fifth behind Broken in a Listed race at Moonee Valley over 1000m. If the son of Invincible Spirit were to reproduce that effort first up here, he’ll be no doubt in the think of things come the finish and the betting market believes he can, rating him on the second line of betting at $5.50.
Odds: $5.50
5. UNDENIABLY – C Williams (11) 54kgs
This time last year Mark Kavanagh had his charge in great form and the son of Fastnet Rock ran fourth in both the G1 Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Handicap. However, since returning from a spell in August of last year, the gelding hasn’t delivered in any of his four starts with his latest effort being a tenth (5 ½ lengths) behind Lankan Rupee in the Earl Grey Stakes over this track/tip on Oaks Day. After that effort, he was transferred to the stables of Cranbourne Trainer Todd Balfour who will saddle the horse up for the first time here.
Odds: $61.00
6. DON’T GET EXCITED – C Newitt (3) 54kgs
Stephen Theodore has guided this 4yo by Elvstroem through his grades this preparation in grand style. He went from a RST 68 win at Sandown to, six starts later at his most recent start, running the 7/4 favourite in the Listed Caulfield Stakes on Boxing Day. Unfortunately from the outside gate, not all went to plan last start and he finished ninth (5.6 lengths) behind Karacatis. Much better draw here will see him position up handier to the lead and the services of Newitt are a bonus.
Odds: $6.00
7. FAB FEVOLA – S Baster (6) 54kgs
This 7yo by Falvelon only has one speed and that’s flat-out. He led all bar the last hop for his trainer Deane Binaisse over this track and trip two starts ago when a head second to Esprit De Bullet before, under 59kgs, running fourth to Kaiser Sun by 2.4 lengths. Meets that horse 3.5kgs better in this race and will give them something to catch but the last 100m will be the concern.
Odds: $21.00
8. KAISER SUN – Chris Symons (10) 54kgs
The Danrich gelding made it four wins from six career starts with his last win, his second since retuning from a spell. In a RST 84 event over this track and trip, he sat handy to the speed and recorded a ¾ length win over Riviera Red and Primitive Man Primitive Man was since disappointing and Riviera Red’s was returning from a seventeen month spell. Kasier Sun is only lightly raced and has upside but feel this may be a bit too much of a step up in grade to be taking $3.30 offered in early markets.
Odds: $3.30
9. PRETTYHAPPYABOUTIT – D Holland (8) 54kgs
The 4yo arrived right on the line to claim a 955m event at Moonee Valley before running second over the same track/trip to Sassy Tycoon as the 5/2 favourite. Robbie Griffith’s charge returned to the Valley again for her most recent start, a 1000m Open race for fillies and mares and never really threatened from the back of the field, finishing sixth (2.1 lengths) behind winner, Legcut. She’ll find this race no easier.
Odds: $18.00
10. SHE’S ELLIE – D Moor (5) 54kgs
It has been a year and seven starts since this 5yo from Neil Pfeiffier’s Bendigo stables last recorded a win. She did get close last start though, running third to Legcut in a 1000m F & M’s race at Moonee Valley. That was her second run back from a spell and she should be at her peak for this but that still might not be good enough for a race of this quality.
Odds: $26.00
11. RIVIERA RED – D Gauci (2) 54kgs
He produced a fantastic run when returned from a seventeen month spell, to run second to Kaiser Sun at Flemington just over a fortnight ago.The Red Ransom 6yo’s fifth career start. It is hard to know what to expect from him here. If he has come on, he’d have a rate a big chance given Kaiser Sun is favourite or will the first up run, for which he was no doubt wound right up for, have taken the edge of him. Creates interest in the least.
Odds: $18.00
RACE OVERVIEW
Not sure, for the reasons listed above, that the early price about Kaiser Sun is the right one. Would be more inclined to shop around at the top of the field and the first four runners. All at a good price, all proven at this level and those returning from a spell, have a more than handy fresh record.
- LOVEYAMADLY
- POCKET ROCKETS
- GENERAL TRUCE
- FIRST COMMAND
