A capacity field has been assembled for the Queensland Derby (2400m) this Saturday at Eagle Farm, with Autumn Angel, a filly, as favourite.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2024 Queensland Derby.
2024 Queensland Derby Speed Map
There is no real designated leader here. Gold Bullion with the GaiBott polish looks the likely one. Navy King went forward at Flemington so Craig Williams may roll the dice. Autumn Angel can hold a spot from the inside draw while Bullets High, who was handy at Warwick Farm, can be there too.
2024 Queensland Derby Runner Preview:
1. Tannhauser: Tannhauser is one of the hardest to beat. He was a strong winner of the Rough Habit and yes, helped by a 12/10 from J Mac, but even allowing for that, the win was impressive. He was a few weeks between runs there so with good room for improvement, he’s the main threat and the other key winning chance.
2. Warmonger: Incredible run in defeat in the SA Derby and does get B Shinn…but drawn the widest barrier? Likely going to be back last and will need a B Shinn special to be in the finish. He can win, don’t get me wrong, but I’d want double figures.
3. Encoder: He’s going okay, but not going well enough to win a Derby.
4. Gold Bullion: Couldn’t find the front in the Rough Habit and that sealed his fate. That said, I don’t think he is any world beater and even if he finds the top, I doubt he’ll lead all the way.
5. Navy King: Visually, an impressive win last time at Flemington and he did the right thing by me, but I do query how strong that race was, and the fact he was given a 12/10 by one of the more in form riders in Victoria, Dan Stackhouse. Does get Craig Williams on, but this is a whole new level. I feel he is unders.
6. Kirikan: He just hasn’t come up. Pass.
7. Felix The Scat: I think he could be a sneaky good roughie. He looked gone once upon a time but his last couple of runs, he has been eye catching with his finale, the latest in the Rough Habit when fourth to Tannhauser. He’ll love 2400m, he’ll get good cover…big price I feel.
8. Sonofdec: Sonofdec is a horse I am not going to entirely dismiss here despite bringing inferior form. He comes through a Midway at Scone over 1700m but the arrogance of the win was something else, giving them a start and an absolute beating, running great late splits in winning. Jumps straight to 2400m, but gee he looks a nice horse and will run well at odds.
9. Bullets High: Toughed it out and beat the older horses at Warwick Farm last time but that was a weak race. Much harder here and surprised he is as short as he is.
10. Agita: Didn’t do a bad job without much luck last week at Randwick and while 2400m is no issue…the class is.
11. Warialda Warrior: Another sneaky good roughie from the Rough Habit. He got too far back there and while he was never a winning threat, his finale was more than sound and finished off with purpose. He’ll have no issue with 2400m, a truly run 2400m…a win wouldn’t shock at all.
12. First Innings: Kiwi raider who gave them a start and a beating at Ipswich but that race, overall, was thin. Much harder here. Pass.
13. Shy Guy: Trip no issue. Class is the issue. And he looks very, very one paced.
14. Saban: Of he and Navy King from Flemington, I’d much rather side with this guy given he has more upside to come and gets a huge upgrade with J Kah replacing Will Price. That said, $10? That is way too short.
15. Anderson Bridge: Plain behind Bullets High at Warwick Farm. Can’t have him here.
16. Purveyor: Never a factor in the Rough Habit and suspect that will be the case here.
17. Moonlight Magic: Gee I wanted to find her at odds. Loved the arrogance of the win at Ellerslie last time and she does bring very strong form from NZ. Just the gate makes things very tough but I can’t dismiss her given she will stay, handles potential wet ground and Blinkers first time.
18. Autumn Angel: Autumn Angel brings the class factor and looks cherry ripe for this. Dominant win of the ATC Oaks before going to the Rough Habit, where she just looked a tad rusty, but was good late behind Tannhauser. This is a Grand Final for her, proven at 2400m and has the weight pull being a filly. One of the hardest to beat.
19. Mannerheim (First Emergency): SCR
20. Misterkipchoge (Second Emergency): SCR
21. Saxon Brave (Third Emergency): SCR
22. Kadavar (Fourth Emergency): SCR
23. Kairos Louie (Fifth Emergency): SCR
2024 Queensland Derby $100 Betting Strategy:
I’ll back the class of Autumn Angel. $100 Win Best Tote SP.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $6725
Group l Strategy Return: $5349
2024 Queensland Derby Odds:
