Group l racing for the 2021/22 season in Melbourne kicks off this Saturday at Caulfield with a strong field assembled for the Memsie Stakes (1400m). The track is like to be in the good range, more than likely a 4, potentially a Soft5, and with the rail in the true position, traditionally, those in a forward spot are not disadvantaged.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Memsie Stakes.
2021 Memsie Stakes Speed Map
Streets Of Avalon loves to press forward and that won’t change here despite drawing wide. That should give Archedemus an ideal cart over. Sansom likely lands box seat from the good draw while Red Can Man lobs 1/1. Beau Rossa led fresh at Morphettville and has options from gate one. Inspirational Girl drifts back to near last based on a recent Geelong jumpout while Tofane can sit in the first few.
2021 Memsie Stakes Runner Preview
1. Fifty Stars: Resumes for Tom Dabernig after formerly racing with him along with Ben Hayes. Brings one soft jumpout at Warrnambool under the belt leading in, so whether he needs this run, not sure, but his lone 1400m fresh run on dry ground came in the CF Orr last year when very good from the back behind Alabama Express. Not sure he wins but at $31+, he’s a definite first four threat because his best is good enough to be quite dangerous.
2. Behemoth: Got the win first up at Morphettville in the Spring Stakes via the Stewards Room over Beau Rossa, who shifted out under pressure and caused interference to this guy. It’s a really tricky map for him from gate nine, where he gets to in the run. I can see him drifting back to worse than midfield, three wide with cover. Jamie Kah first time is always a positive gear change. Just a little query on how well he’s going to warrant being favourite.
3. Streets Of Avalon: Track/distance specialist who was too bad to be true in the PB Lawrence and the vet confirmed as such, with the report saying he pulled up lame. He likely leads this field up and if on speed is the spot to be, he’ll run a big race and if you can forgive that last run, which had a genuine excuse for how bad it was, he’s in with a shout at a big price.
4. Archedemus: Did work to get on speed fresh in the PB Lawrence and ran out of condition late. 1600m is his go in life, and I don’t think he is a WFA horse at this stage of his career. He’s the rank outside and rightfully so I’d suggest. He’ll struggle.
5. Red Can Man: This reminds me of Platoon from the Autumn. Placed in whatever race was on the horizon and if that wasn’t good enough, move onto the next one. Game effort in the PB Lawrence when third but the depth here is far stronger. Likely lands into a plum spot from the gate, but I don’t think he has the class to match it with some of these.
6. Sansom: Ridden with a sit fresh in the Bletchingly and was rewarded with a narrow win. Then went to the PB Lawrence and pulled his head off in the run, finishing last after using all his energy mid race. Pre Race Ear Muffs go on to try and relax him. But I can’t see him being a Group l WFA winner.
7. Aegon: He is the unknown leading into this. He has the Baker/Forsman polish, which has to be respected, especially in Group l races in Australia. Just not sure where he is at. The wheels well and truly fell off, the hype balloon was popped and he lost all confidence in the Autumn. Returned home for a good spell, and his trial at Ellerslie, albeit ridden quiet, was plain. Either he’s not going any good, or he didn’t handle the bog track that particular morning. I’d rather include than ignore.
8. Beau Rossa: He’s a definite winning chance. Will Clarken rarely gets it wrong when he brings them to Melbourne and this horse should be unbeaten this prep. Bolted up fresh before going to the Spring Stakes where IMO, he wins if he runs straight. But he veered out under pressure, hampered Behemoth and lost the race in the Stewards Room. That horse is $4/thereabouts whereas this guy is $8.50+. Gate one, hard fit…he only runs well IMO.
9: Colette: Her best is certainly good enough to be dangerous. Beat Verry Elleegant first up last prep so that reads well, clearly, for this. The negatives are one soft 800m trial to get ready and where she gets to from the draw. Likely drags back to last, try and find a back to follow and launch late. If that eventuates, she’s in this as a winning threat for sure.
10: Tofane: I think she’ll start favourite given how well she went during the Brisbane Carnival and how well she maps here. Looked to truck in a recent Flemington jumpout and I think the camp have realised that around this distance range is her sweet spot, plus The Invitation is a perfect race for her, so if she’s trained as a 1400m-1600m horse, she’s a star mare and she’ll take a power of beating.
11. Inspirational Girl: She either flops or she wins and announces herself as a rising star. Did her job in WA via the Railway win and a narrow second in the Kingston Town at the end of last year. Now with Danny O’Brien, I thought she moved very well in a recent Geelong jumpout and she does have electric change up speed when in the mood. If she is able to hold a forward spot from the draw, I’m sure she’ll look the winner at some stage.
12. Sierra Sue: Amazing to think a Mildura Cup win could produce a major confidence boost for a horse but Sierra Sue has bounced off that. Backed that win up with a triumph in the PB Lawrence and was quite strong in doing so. Personally, I think that form is on the rubbish side for this and looking for fresh blood so happy to risk her.
2021 Memsie Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
I have absolutely no idea about this race. I have Inspirational Girl on top but can back her, Tofane, Beau Rossa, Colette and even Fifty Stars each way. So I’m going to take a $100 Boxed First Four with the numbers 1-2-8-9-10-11 for a 27.77% dividend should it get up.
Group l Strategy Running Total: – $100
