The Cox Plate Carnival kicks off on Friday night, headlined by the Group l Manikato Stakes (1200m), where it’s a capacity field with good depth despite being six days after The Everest.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Manikato Stakes.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Manikato Stakes
2022 Manikato Stakes Speed Map
A lot will depend on how the track plays. If it’s up/in, then there will be plenty looking to hunt up. Like the Moir, Coolangatta should hold up from the inside, potentially lead. Bella Nipotina should get her back. Best Of Bordeaux is drawn wide and will press forward. Rothfire, Streets Of Avalon and The Astrologist will all be handy.
2022 Manikato Stakes Runner Preview
1. Behemoth: He must be showing something at home to keep persisting. David Jolly is not an idiot and off his overall form the last 12 months, he’d struggle at Listed/Group lll level. The trial win was a solid piece of work…but surely he can’t win this.
2. Eleven Eleven: This looks a set play despite not the best of fresh records. He’s a sprinter and a good one when trained that way. Liked his trial win and he worked well here on Tuesday morning. Maps ideally, he’ll be strong late…in the mix for sure.
3. Streets Of Avalon: Been a great horse for Shane Nicholls over a number of years but he’s not up to winning a Manikato fresh.
4. The Inferno: Has teased to be a good horse in Australia, but he’s got a big enough sample size to confirm that he’s no good. Poor in the Moir, he’d need to improve big time.
5. Paulele: Contender or pretender time. If he’s going to be a Group l class animal, he’d want to be winning this. He was good in the Moir and class got him home in an average Schillaci, which can be confirmed with Ingratiating failing to beat a runner home in The Everest. He maps ideally, set for the race…D-Day.
6. Shaquero: Handy horse when right, but not at this level. Even with the Waller polish, I can’t entertain him.
7. Rothfire: Dodged The Everest to focus on the Moonee Valley sprint races. Thought he was given zero with the ride by Lane in the Moir. The way the track played, he was no hope, but should have finished closer. Gets a good map once again and I do think 1200m is ideal…the knock is the rain. He wants a firm deck.
8. The Astrologist: He is the one at big odds I could speck for a couple of reasons. First, he comes through what is the strongest form reference, the Gilgai, given it was won by Private Eye, who went down narrowly in The Everest. Second, he loves getting his feet wet, and the forecast for rain is perfect. He can land in the first few, he’s tough, genuine and is just too big of a price IMO.
9. September Run: Classy mare when right. Forgive run in the Moir but again, where does she get to from the wide draw. The tick is that she was one of the standouts in work on Tuesday morning and the stable are bullish. We know that she is high class when things are suited to her racing style.
10. Bella Nipotina: Bella Nipotina has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat. Her run in the Moir was absolutely enormous, defying the pattern and launched late to just miss out on picking up stablemate Coolangatta, who had the pattern in her corner. So genuine, finds the line, she’s hard to beat.
11. Roch N Horse: Racing well without winning is the Newmarket. Second to Private Eye in the Gilgai but she looks to have such an awful map, so I can’t have her here.
12. Jamaea: Was waiting on her to get a start in The Invitation and load up. She’s flying this girl, but tends to save her best for Randwick. I can’t see her measuring up against these.
13. Best Of Bordeaux: If he brings his absolute best, he can be dangerous, because he did beat Coolangatta in the Golden Slipper and given the big price gap between the pair here, you could easily speck this colt. If he can get across on speed and not spend too many petrol tickets, he’ll make sure they know he’s there.
14. Coolangatta: If it’s dynamite inside again, she’s the one. She got the track pattern in her corner to win the Moir. That was at 1000m. The query with her is a hard 1200m, but she’ll get run of the race again.
15. Savatoxl (First Emergency): Stable is cast outside Ballarat Synthetic/Murray Bridge. Hit and miss this horse, usually miss. Not for me.
16. General Beau (Second Emergency): General Beau is a Group l performer at this track so I think he commands respect. He resumed in the Schillaci where he was near the speed throughout and battled on really well in defeat when fourth to Paulele, beaten 2.5L. Good second up record, likes the track, he’s in with a shout at a massive price if he gains a start.
17. In The Boat (Third Emergency): He was well and truly blessed in a couple of wins last prep. He’s not going good enough to trouble these.
18. Sweet Ride (Fourth Emergency): Solid colt but he’s not suited at this level. Wait for some thing easier.
2022 Manikato Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
Two $40 Win bets for me, Paulele and Bella Nipotina. They were the two runs from the Moir that I’m following. I’ll have $10 Place on both Best Of Bordeaux and The Astrologist. Both are capable with their best.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $1650
Group l Strategy Return: $861.5.5
