Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Friday (16/9/2022) racing. Please note that some prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 9am Friday.
Index
0.5u = A chance/throw at the stumps
1u = A good chance
1.5 = Reasonably confident
2u+ = Very confident/good thing
September Outlay: 189 Units
September Return: 249.18 Units
Newcastle (10.5 Units)
Race One: 1u Win Ting Tong (Tote/SP)
Race Two: 0.5u Win/1u Place Spirited Charlize (Tote/SP)
Race Three: No Bet
Race Four: 1u Win Toro Toro (Tote/SP)
Race Five: 1u Win/4u Place Chappelli @ $14/$3.4
Race Six: 2u Win Durston (Tote/SP)
Race Seven: No Bet
Race Eight: No Bet
Ballarat Synthetic (5 Units)
Race One: No Bet
Race Two: No Bet
Race Three: No Bet
Race Four: No Bet
Race Five: No Bet
Race Six: No Bet
Race Seven: 5u Win My Boy Birmingham (Tote/SP)
Race Eight: No Bet
Overview: The Newcastle meeting has been really knocked about by scratchings. Ting Tong is the class in the opener and should prove hard to beat fresh. Spirited Charlize is one of mine, have been on her both runs this time in and just have to speck her at the odds because I’d be filthy if she won without me. Toro Toro will love a fast run 900m and will be strong late whereas others will be paddling. Chappelli is just the wrong odds. He’s a wet tracker crying out for more ground and for mine should be at least half his quoted price. Durston is the pick in the Cup ahead of Mankayan. Ballarat Synthetic, My Boy Birmingham saves his best for the track, likewise the stable. Despite a clear rise in grade/depth, he’ll get control in front, be out of the kickback and prove hard to get past.
Early Plays For Saturday (6 Units As Of 8.50am Thursday)
0.5u Win/1u Place Hurn Court R1 Randwick @ $41/$9
2.5u Win Grace And Harmony R3 Randwick @ $3.9
2u Win Moscow Red R4 Morphettville @ $6.5
All In Plays For Saturday (As Of 4.30pm Monday)
0.5u Win Amendable @ $11 In Caulfield Guineas Prelude
0.5u Win Hope At Hand @ $11 In Thousand Guineas Prelude
0.25u Win Aleas & Crystal Pegasus @ $51 In Naturalism Stakes
0.5u Place Aleas & Crystal Pegasus @ $14 In Naturalism Stakes
5u Win Nature Strip @ $2.9 In The Shorts
Overview: I am stunned that Aft Cabin is even money in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Nice horse yes, but not a $2 nice horse. There is a bit of quality in this race. Liked the run of Amenable at Moonee Valley. I think $11 for him is very much acceptable.
These 3YO Fillies are looking very even, especially in Melbourne. I want different form and Hope At Hand is indeed different form. Closed off very well fresh at Morphettville behind a Stakes class animal IMO, Taunting, over an unsuitable trip. Love the rise in trip for her, she showed good promise as a juvenile and $11 is a fair enough price to find out if she’ll measure up. I’m saying she will.
The Naturalism looks an absolute lottery. I think have a peanut at the $51/$14 on both Aleas and Crystal Pegasus. Each are nominated for Randwick as well, but both did more than enough in their respective fresh runs. If they run here, I think that price is ridiculous. Uncle Bryn a nice horse, but a query perhaps in a strong 2000m? Too short IMO.
Nature Strip $2.90 in The Shorts…why? Surely he starts $1.90. Yes, he’s not a Semi Final horse traditionally, but all the noise out of the stable and those that have seen him in the flesh say he’s looking as good as ever, the trial/work was outstanding and he just seems to be getting better with age. Can’t believe he’s that price. Eduardo will give him a good race and is the main threat. Mazu way too short at $4.80, Lost And Running/Classique Legend not ready, Overpass not up to them…just all points to Nature Strip.



































