The first of the ‘Big Three’ in Melbourne is the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and the 2021 edition rolls around this Saturday, where the focus will mainly be on boom horse Incentivise. The track rating is unknown given rain is forecast, so how the track plays will be known as the meeting progresses.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Caulfield Cup.
2021 Caulfield Cup Speed Map
Given it’s a short run to the first turn, there should be good speed, especially from a couple of runners drawn wide, namely Incentivise. Homesman won’t be far away from 13 while Delphi will be the interesting one. Drawn directly inside Incentivise, do they slide forward, or potentially keep something in reserve for the Melbourne Cup by dragging back and opting for cover.
2021 Caulfield Cup Runner Preview
1. Homesman: His 2018 Caulfield Cup effort would see him in with a shout here, and the back up should be fine for him. Is he going well enough to win this race? I’m saying no, but if you want to include a horse for wider multiples, definitely include this guy.
2. Incentivise: The Turnbull has been a great form reference for the Caulfield Cup in recent years and I think this guy will do the double. He’ll only get better with added fitness, added trip, a track which suits his racing style. Give me $2.50+ and I’ll be chips in.
3. Explosive Jack: I’m with Spanish Mission for the Melbourne Cup, but the best of the locals I feel is this guy. Whether he will be suited here is unknown, but I think this will be a lovely pipe opener and clean the cobwebs out for the first Tuesday in November. Can he win here? Of course he can and has to be respected.
4. The Chosen One: Really good pipe opener last Saturday behind Delphi. As good as the stable have been in the past, in recent times, they have really struggled in Australia. But this horse is proven at this level, in this race, and is one for exotics.
5. Ocean Billy: Auckland Cup winner so a staying trip will be no issue. The issue is the set up. 1600m to 2400m and the fact his two runs back in NZ have been ordinary. The saving grace is that he is with Chris Waller. If it wasn’t for that, he should be $201, not $101.
6. Selino: He’s ticking along nicely towards the Melbourne Cup 2021. Good in the Bart Cummings but I feel back in trip is a negative. Look for him to get back from the gate and find the line with an eye towards Flemington.
7. Persan: He was the story of the Spring last year, going on to run so well in the Melbourne Cup. 12 months on, is he going as good? I’m saying no, but he’s in the right camp to improve out of sight.
8. Quick Thinker: On current form, I’d say no. Definitely not. But, if we get a truly wet track, then $81+ should be halved. His wet track form, genuine wet track form, is very good. At the odds, I could have something very small on him.
9: Chapada: IMO, he’s a dry tracker only, and with significant rain forecast for the week, I dare say we are going to be on a genuine wet track and that is the sticking point for him. He’s just not as effective compared to on top of the ground. Happy to let him go through to the keeper.
10: Delphi: Arrogant win in the Herbert Power. Ridden like he was the best horse in the race and duly saluted. What do they do from the wide barrier? Do they force their hand and go forward, or maybe have eyes on the Melbourne Cup, so drag back, get cover and launch late. Either way, I think he’s a key winning chance.
11. Master Of Wine: He was going like a complete busted but his run in the Bart Cummings had good merit to it. Wet track helps, but I do feel that race is an inferior form race for this, so happy to let him go.
12. Montefilia: Ticked the 2400m box, just, in the Metropolitan. Big ticks for her are getting right down in the weights and a bit of give in the track, which suits her perfectly. Definite first four threat.
13: Port Guillaume: Blinkers first time off a forgive run in the Bart Cummings when pulling up lame, but he would need to improve big time to trouble this lot. Can’t entertain him on form this time in.
14. She’s Ideel: I thought she had her chance behind Montefilia in the Metropolitan. Blinkers back on and drop of rain helps her cause, as well as down in the weights…she’s big odds. I could have something small on her.
15. Young Werther: The stable has eyes on the prize. The prize isn’t this race. It’s the Melbourne Cup ala Vow And Declare. Not sure Caulfield will suit him, but expecting him to have the flashing light on him as a leading 2021 Melbourne Cup contender.
16. Nonconformist: 2400m is the obvious query with him. But that was said about Montefilia and she won The Metropolitan with flying colours. Tumbles in weight from last Saturday which should help with the 2400m question mark. A soft run in transit, I think he’ll be okay and is a leading contender.
17 Duais: Lovely win in the Coongy on Wednesday. Knuckled down strongly when asked and beat boom horse Floating Artist. 2400m, down in the weights, looks a good set up. I can certainly include her in multiples.
18. Charms Star: Unlucky in the Metropolitan but I do feel she is a horse who is much better on top of the ground so the wet track concerns me and while she is big odds, I’m happy to let her go through to the keeper.
2021 Caulfield Cup $100 Betting Strategy:
To me, this is all about Incentivise. $80 on him to win. There are two runners at odds I’ll speck and have $10 win on each, those being Explosive Jack and Port Guillaume, the latter due to a likely wet track being on the cards and he’s a swimmer.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $1680
Group l Strategy Return: $1270.5
