Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Thursday’s (7/3/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5.30pm Wednesday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $15340
Betting Strategy Return: $14976
Futures Outlay: $500
Futures Return: $425
Port Macquarie
$80 Win Raay Of Time R3 @ $2.6 (Sportsbet)
$10 E/W Charlie Jack R4 @ $15 Win (Sportsbet), Place (Tote)
Port Macquarie Overview:
Raay Of Time does look the good thing at Port Macquarie. Thought he produced an excellent resumption at Newcastle when getting off the speed and working home well behind Day Star in a race which has already produced a winner. Remaining at 1200m the negative, but hopefully blinkers first time sharpens her up. Got more upside than most. The speck of the day is Charlie Jack. I think he’s going well for Neil Godbolt and strikes a thin staying race. Got too far back last time at Taree but was good late. On his home track, does no work from the inside gate…I don’t want to take $1.50 for the Kris Lees runner, who has suspect form. Think $15 each way Charlie Jack will do me.
Pakenham
$50 Win Snowplough R1 @ $3.6 (TAB)
$10 Win Parlay 3,4= $50 Cost
Secretly Discreet R2
Arctic Shock R3
Bye Bye Belle R4
Jungle Fish R6
Pakenham Overview:
Made Snowplough the best of the day/night. Michelle Payne trains this progressive stayer, who finally showed some good form last time at Bendigo when winding up with purpose from the back to run second to Ohm’s Law in a race which has already produced two winners. Got plenty of room to improve IMO and he strikes a very thin maiden. Runs up to last start and he should just about be beating these. The Parlay is there. Secretly Discreet very good on debut and is the one to beat in the second. Arctic Shock was solid last time, first run in a month. Has upside I would think. Bye Bye Belle looks a nice horse on the up and was excellent on debut, and Jungle Fish is a mare in good form and despite creeping up in the weights is the horse to beat in the sixth.
Hamilton
$15 Win/$45 Place Ours R2 @ $6.5/$2.25
$40 Win Alsvior R3 (Tote)
Hamilton Overview:
Dry track probably not his preferred ground, but still think $6.50 is a reasonable price for Ours, trained by Patrick Payne. Thought he was going to win last time at Yarra Valley but given he was only second up on a testing track, I reckon condition gave out. Has had three trials since, two jump trials, so he’s likely heading towards Oakbank, but his flat form, especially this prep, doesn’t read too bad and is worth a bet each way. Alsvior looks a good thing for Sue Jaensch. The horse nearly pulled off the plunge last time on debut at Donald but just missed on a day where making ground, significant ground, was hard to do, so he got a big tick there, and does appear well placed, but I think take the tote. Should hopefully get $3+.
