Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Thursday’s (14/3/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5pm Wednesday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $17040
Betting Strategy Return: $16041
Futures Outlay: $630
Futures Return: $830
Goulburn
$10 Parlay 3,4 = $50 Cost
Major Danger R1 Win
Casino Angel R2 Place
Refire R3 Win
Neshmiya R5 Win
Goulburn Overview:
Major Danger looks to be heading in the right direction for Danny Williams and I thought he was good here last time in defeat. I think the cushion in the track via the wet weather is perfect and he looks the winner. Wetter the better for Casino Angel in the second, who has been going okay recently for Ron Quinton but is crying out for a wet track and she should get it here. I think Refire is silly odds in the third. Danny has always had an opinion of this horse and I just think the track was too firm first up. Back on rain affected ground, he could easily bounce back. Rare that Team Snowden come to Goulburn but they should always be respected when they do. She comes through a strong maiden first up won by Tuesday Special and the depth here looks much weaker.
Pakenham
$20 Win Parlay 3,4 = $100 Cost
Punkzy R3
Camp View R6
Gennikay R7
Think I’m Dreaming R8
Pakenham Overview:
Punkzy looks the best of the day/night. Just missed on picking up Assertive Approach on debut at Bendigo and arguably should have won. Looks to find a very winnable maiden and is priced accordingly. Sixth did look a race in two between Mrs O’Malley and Camp View but with the former out, Campe View does look ready to win after getting a mile out of his ground last time and just missing. Does everything right and he’ll go close. I think Gennikay can knock off No Drama Darci. The fav is a head strong horse and with blinkers going on first time, who knows what sort of effect that will have. Gennikay is in a purple patch and has that turn of foot when asked. She’s the value and does everything right. Think I’m Dreaming is well found in early markets but looks the one to beat after running here last time, giving a good kick from the front only to be nabbed near the peg. The very capable and patient hands of Ben Melham should get her home in the get out.
Warrnambool
$10 Place Parlay 3,4 = $50 Cost
Ours R1
Lucques R2
Grassini R3
Leila’s Star R7
Warrnambool Overview:
Seeing them like thumbtacks at the moment, so a speculative Place Parlay, and note the first three carry no third dividend, so have to run top two do each. I think the give in the track is perfect for Ours. Looked the winner last week at Hamilton but just didn’t let down on the firm deck. Hopefully he can on a track with give. Lucques is making his jumps debut for Eric Musgrove. It’s a really weak maiden hurdle and his two trials haven’t been too bad. In the right stable and any glimpse of his best flat form, he’d spank them. Grassini is a 10YO but gee he’s racing well. Won the 3350m contest at Colac last time, beating High Sierra, who ran well at Sandown on Wednesday. I think he’ll run top two with clean jumping. In terms of the flat races, really keen on Leila’s Star running well. Thought she did a really good job against the track pattern last time at Ararat when a narrow third to Lazy Bear. On her home track, inside gate, she looks hard to beat.
