Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Thursday’s (10/1/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5pm Wedneesday.
Outlay: $1900
Return: $2062
Muswellbrook
$10 Win Peyton Place R2 @ $6 (TAB)
$10 Win St Luke R3 @ $8 (BetEasy)
$60 Win The Haitian Poet R4 @ $1.85 (BetEasy)
$10 E/W Elcano R8 @ $13/$3.8 (BetEasy)
Muswellbrook Overview:
Concede Healing Hands was an impressive winner on debut at Dubbo, but he’s short enough and I think the value at $6 is clearly Peyton Place, who looked in need of the run first up at Armidale and the market reflected that, drifting alarmingly late. Despite that, he worked to the line really well. Should come right in from that, has gate one and is worth the gamble at the price. St Luke looked as if he’d bolt in last time at the mile at Scone but just didn’t quite see the trip out and ran a close up third. Back 100m in trip is ideal and $8.5 is overs. The Haitian Poet looks the best of the day. The form around him from last prep just reads that much better than anything engaged here. $1.85 at the moment is that sort of price where he could firm to $1.50, perhaps shorter, signalling he’s ready to go, or he could ease to $3+ and have a gut as big as mine. I’ll take the short odds and hope he’s ready. The horse at silly odds is Elcano in the last. He ran in a Scone maiden last time where he was just flat footed but once he balanced up, he surged and looked the winner for a few strides but out wide, Poulton Le Sands sprouted wings and got the win. The official reading was Soft6 but it was more like a heavy. Firmer footing here is ideal and shouldn’t be at double figures.
Rockhampton
$25 Win Last Chance R3 @ $4.4 (Bet365)
$75 Win Ragazzo Del Corsa R4 @ $2.4 (Bet365)
Rockhampton Overview:
Note that Bet365 were the only bookie with odds up. Think there are two standouts at Rocky, starting with Last Chance for Lyle Wright. Resumed a few weeks back over 1200m at the track where he was very unlucky I thought, getting badly held up when trying to build momentum and probably should have won when third to Legal Ties. The blinkers are back on and hopefully that can spark him into action. Ragazzo Del Corsa looks a good thing in the fourth. Three weeks between runs when racing over 1200m here in a heat of the Magic Millions Country Cup and he should have won. Just badly held up and when he got out, it was all over but he got very close. Normal luck and he wins, and really, he should be a clear odds on pop despite coming back in trip.
