Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Monday’s (4/2/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5pm Sunday.
Outlay: $7800
Return: $8662
Cessnock
$60 Win Sir Winkle R1 @ $1.8 (TAB)
$20 E/W Red Notice R7 @ $7.5/$2.5 (BetEasy)
Cessnock Overview:
Nothing flash about the price for Sir Winkle but he should be winning and I actually think the $1.80 is a touch of overs. He’s placed in both career runs, the latest at Port Macquarie when attempting to lead all the way but just feeling the pinch late when second to stablemate Da Power. Looks to lead for absolute fun and on speed/rail is the A1 spot to be at Cessnock. Think the value of the day is Red Notice in the last. He is a few weeks between runs since racing on a sticky track at Nowra when back in the run and not really coming on behind Elenara. Back on top of the ground, fresh, gate one and the depth here looks thin, plus the fav, Itz Lily, looks a tad too short for my liking considering everything fell into place at Taree to win on debut.
Ballina
$40 Win Multi @ $6.27 (TAB)
Hayburner R1
Ashman R3
$20 Win/$40 Place Boncosta R6 @ $8.5/$2.8 (BetEasy)
Ballina Overview:
I think the multi looks a good gamble. Hayburner looks a moral and should win the first. Resumed over 1200m at the Gold Coast where he just got a fraction too far back from the wide gate but closed off well to run second. Can sit much closer in the run this time around from the better gate and normal luck should see him win. Ashman is a stablemate who is on debut in the third and I’ve been quite taken by his two trials. On speed at the Gold Coast in the latest trial and was under triple wraps late when fifth, beaten a couple of lengths. Won the trial prior and looked good there. Sparkling Facet may come out, causing high deductions, but I’ll cop it anyway because he looks pretty good. Boncosta did some nice things for me at double figure odds when winning at Coffs last time, proving the Kempsey run the start prior wasn’t a one off. He bolted in and hopefully he is now back in the frame of mind and form which saw him being touted as a Country Championships horse last year.
