Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Friday’s (1/3/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5.30pm Thursday.
$30 Win Multi @ $3.92 (BetEasy)
Kiss My Swiss R2
Think the two favs in the first two races can get the job done. Terminal debuts for Kurt Goldman off the back of a 1000m trial at Rosehill when on speed and though pished out, did respond okay when beaten narrowly. This race does’t look strong on paper and I think she can get away with it. Kiss My Swiss is short odds but should be winning off the back of a very sharp first up win at the Sapphire Coast over 900m. Should hold the front and sustained speed will come to the fore. River Of Gold I like in the fourth for the in form Mitch Beer stable. She resumed over 1200m at the Sapphire Coast where she got back on a track where those on speed were advantged so for her to make good ground was a good effort. Better suited on the bigger track here, fitter and back on firmer footing, she looks to hard to beat. I think Whicker is at silly odds in the fifth. Thought she should have finished much closer behind Tycoon Dreaming at Albury last time, getting held up and not really having a chance to build full momentum. Does no work from the gate and looks the one to have a speck on. City Of Kirkwall looks a chance in the seventh. He resumed in a pretty decent benchmark race at Kembla on a sticky track and looked in need of the run behind Captain Mannering. Much better suited on top of the ground and up to 1800m, I think he’s worth an each way ticket in a competitive race.
Commander Bell looks a good thing in the first. Was five weeks between runs when racing at Newcastle last time where he got back in the run and closed off well late in the piece behind Day Star. Think he’ll take good improvement from that, he gets Winkers for the first time and this race does really lack depth on exposed form. Should sit handy from the good draw and be winning. Mill City looks a great bet in the sixth. This Kris Lees trained filly ran at Newcastle last start and was a little unlucky. Just got held up a touch when looking to build momentum but really found the line when clear late.With clear air this time around, I’m confident she can get the job done.
Swan Hill Overview:
I think the market could flip in the first with It’s Choux Time starting favourite. Formerly with Chris Waller, she had her first run for Nathan Hobson at Balranald and she bolted in over 1750m, her first run in eight weeks, so you’d like to think there is improvement to come from her, up in trip a big tick, on her home track and the Hobson/Macfarlane combo is lethal, especially at Swan Hill. Looks hard to beat. Fascinating runner is Firestreaker, a former Robbie Griffiths runner having her first run for Nathan Hobson. Has only had one start, which came at Sandown back in May last year in a 2YO race when finishing last, but that race has produced eight winners, so a big tick to that form and the stable for the most part do improve these tried runners. Already in from $9, so early market support suggests she’s around the mark fitness wise for her resumption.
$30 Win Artful Rambler R7 @ $5 (Sportsbet)
Port Lincoln Overview:
This girl is just an absolute beauty and she is popular with punters given she gets back and has a booming finish on her. Was going to be a hard lucky story last time at the track but Sophie Logan eventually found clear air on her and she savaged the line late to win, fending off Bellomo, who does look the key threat again. Just think Artful Rambler is more reliable and she’ll be motoring at the end off a likely decent tempo.
Moonee Valley Overview:
I think Foxy’s Star is worth a throw at the stumps in the fourth. Good test for this Symon Wilde galloper, but the debut win at the Bool was outstanding. Copped serious heat on speed but kicked away on the turn and was safely holding a margin to the line, and actually clocked some of the better late splits in the race despite being on debut, on speed and pressured. Just think he’s worth a speck and likely will ease in the market given there are some nice types engaged. Mosh Music or Surprise Baby will win the sixth. I think Mosh Music has the better change up speed so the majority bet is on her off the back of a sharp win at the track/distance last time while Surprise Baby was very good against the track pattern at Flemington behind Schabau. If he’s within range on the turn, he’s certainly good enough.