The Autumn Carnival is fast approaching with some of the big boys and girls not far off strutting their stuff and with that being the case, the futures markets are always a fascinating prospect.
So I’ve had a look at a few of the races with markets up and hopefully have found some value.
Inglis Millennium (1200m) on February 8th at Warwick Farm: Cellsabeel unlikely, Team Snowden have indicated that Dame Giselle is highly unlikely, and Encountabull is no value. The value, clearly, is September Run. She debuted in the Inglis Nursery where she was somewhat unwanted in betting and if you’ll remember, lost her compass on the turn. Picked up when straightening and her late splits were outstanding, some of the best of the race…trialled at Warwick Farm on January 21 and immediately wanted to have something on. Wasn’t in the market, is now, and for mine, $41/$11 is very silly.
Bet: $10 Win/$40 Place @ $41/$11 (Sportsbet) (January 23)
Australian Guineas (1600m) on February 29th at Flemington: I’m a fan of Alligator Blood, I’m the #1 ticket holder in the Dalasan fan club…but off what I saw in the Matamata trial, it’s going to take something special or something to go wrong for Catalyst to get beat. He’s a star of NZ racing and looked high class in his trial win, doing it under an absolute hold with plenty up the sleeve. His main aim is the Australian Guineas, next aim being the All Star Mile. Have to take the $8 on offer for him.
Bet: $50 Win @ $8 (Sportsbet) (January 14)
Country Championships Final (1400m) on April 4th at Randwick: When the Country Championships markets first came out, I was really surprised that $11 went up for Luna Mia given how unlucky she was in the Kosciuszko. I’m even more amazed that $11 is still available after the way she trialled at Scone. Sat off the speed before Ash Morgan gave her a squeeze and the response was very good, closing off with real purpose before being throttled down late. I’d be taking the $11 for her to win the big dance.
Bet: $40 Win/$60 Place @ $11/$3.5 (TAB) (January 31)
Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) on April 11th at Randwick: Te Akau Shark $2.75 to place looks a good bet knowing that this is the racing he’s being set for and the fact he was one of the runs of the race in the Cox Plate behind Lys Gracieux. Trialled at Matamata behind Catalyst and looked very good himself. Stable will plot a path towards the feature and I’m confident that if he holds his form, he’ll go very close.
Bet: $100 Place @ $2.75 (TAB) (January 14)