The SA Carnival properly kicks off this afternoon at Morphettville, with the first of the majors being the Australasian Oaks (2000m).
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2025 Australasian Oaks.
2025 Australasian Oaks Runner Preview:
1. Too Darn Lizzie: I think she needs to get the softest of leads in order to see out the 2000m and for mine, she won’t get that, especially in a Group l in a big field. Very keen to oppose.
2. Benagil: Has to be given serious respect. She was game as ever in the Vinery Stud to Treasurethe Moment and looks primed for this Group l assginment. Tricky gate, but has the A1 form.
3. Movin Out: Movin Out is on the back up for Chris Waller after an arrogant win in the Mornington Guineas where she rounded them up from last, came widest, and was very impressive in the run to the line. She has always shown promise and off the win last weekend, 2000m looks perfect. The one to beat.
4. Cinch: Hard to knock a filly as genuine as her. She was there to be beaten in the Auraria but she found under pressure to fend them off and score. First run in two months there, so she has upside/improvement.
5. Phenom: She ran third in the Auraria and seemed to have her chance. Harder here, 2000m is a query…can’t entertain her.
6. Femminile: I thought she was an eye catcher in the Auraria, getting back and making up good headway without threatening. She’ll get back again but be strong late.
7. Cavity Bay: Another from the Auraria that got back and was very good late without threatening. If she can use the inside gate to advantage, she’ll be a knockout chance.
8. Comanche Miss: She is the SP profile horse. She was $4.80 in the Auraria but just got too far back and was never really a factor. She has the talent to measure up for sure and now you’re getting $26+.
9. Polymnia: Polymnia is three weeks between runs for the O’Shea/Charlton camp since contesting the Adrian Knox at Randwick. She got a fair way back in the run but tracked up with purpose before angling clear and she tried hard but couldn’t quite get past Belle Detelle. Saved for this, J Melham on, she appeals.
10. All Kinds Of Folk: I can only think because of the unfashionable jockey/rider combo you are getting $21+ and not single figures. She was the real eye catcher in the Auraria, closing off hard to just miss out. She is right in the mix.
11. Beautiful Jewel: Plain in the Auraria and have many others ahead of her.
12. Wolfess: Okay late at Sandown last time but this looks much harder.
13. Pelevecchio: Pelevecchio will eat up 2000m and is a knockout hope. Both times in the Clare Lindop and Auraria, she has got a mile out of her ground but has finished the race off with real purpose, suggesting a rise in trip will suit. If she can get a drag intl the race, be within range, she’s dangerous.
14. Horizons: Too far back in the Auraria but that said, she didn’t exactly get involved. Pass.
15. Sweltering: Couldn’t win a Terang maiden last start so she won’t be winning the Oaks.
16. Giorgi: Eligible for much easier.
2025 Australasian Oaks $100 Betting Strategy:
$20 Win/$80 Place Movin Out.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $6250
Group l Strategy Return: $3964.50
2025 Australasian Oaks Speed Map
2000m is the obvious query with Too Darn Lizzie and the only way she can win is if she gets front end control so I suspect that is how it will eventuate. She leads and cops not much pressure. Though, the likes of Phenom, as well as Sweltering and Cinch could press forward and ensure a genuine tempo.
