The 2022 Spring Carnival is fast approaching and while the numbers are down on previous years, the international contingent is there again to try and take the big three.
Here at Justhorseracing, we’ve put together a preview of key runners nominated across the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup.
Camorra
Breeding: Zoffany x Mauralakana
Trainer: Team Hayes
Career Stats: 17: 4-2-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1628m/2816m
Career Best Win: Curragh Cup, June 24 2022, Curragh, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 2-1-2
Wet Track Stats: 11: 2-1-2
Short Summary: Has very good form lines to command respect.
Key Overseas Replay: Vintage Crop Stakes (2816m), April 23 2022, Navan, Good Surface
He has had a couple of runs since, but this run was one I thought I’d highlight. It’s been a good reference for Melbourne Cup raiders in the past and Kyprios is the best stayer in the world. Camorra is in the blue colours and he clearly should have run third, getting badly held up at a vital stage. Very good run in a race which has turned out to be a red hot form reference.
Final Summary: $61+ was available for him a few months ago and I found that staggering given the form around him. Not many can say they were good in defeat behind Kyprios, and as seen in the replay, clearly should have run third. He’s a dead set dry tracker, so hopefully gets a firm deck for Cup Day and does have a solid Timeform rating. I think he’s one to be respected, provided the track is dry, because we saw in the Irish St Leger that wet ground at the top level is no good for him.
Deauville Legend
Breeding: Sea The Stars x Soho Rose
Trainer: James Ferguson
Weight: 55kg
Career Stats: 7: 3-3-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2012m/2615m
Career Best Win: Great Voltigeur Stakes, August 17 2022, York, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 7: 3-3-0
Wet Track Stats: Untried
Short Summary: Lightly raced Northern Hemisphere 3YO with raw ability.
Key Overseas Replay: Great Voltigeur Stakes (2385m), August 17 2022, York, Good Surface
This run and dominant win confirmed himself as favourite for the Melbourne Cup. He was outstanding, especially the final 400m, putting away El Bodegon and Secret State, a couple of high quality animals. Secret State was perhaps off his game, but even allowing for that, there was quality about the win from this guy. Whilst El Bodegon has since placed in the Cox Plate, the form as a whole sticks. Six races since from the beaten brigade for just two placings.
Final Summary: I am stunned he is Melbourne Cup favourite. Yes, he has the right profile of being the Northern Hemisphere 3YO, but we are awake to it now and not just giving them 51kg/thereabouts. He’s got 55kg, so he’s weighted on the assumption he’ll be too good. He might well be too good, but given he is $4.50 in early betting, he is way too short for a horse that you can find holes in.
El Bodegon
Breeding: Kodiac x Al Andalyya
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career Stats: 9: 3-2-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1400m/2000m
Career Best Win: Prix Criterium de Saint Cloud, October 23 2021, Saint Cloud, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 3: 0-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 6: 3-2-3
Short Summary: Group l winner who has very good overseas form.
Key Overseas Replay: Maiden (1400m), July 28 2021, Sandown, Heavy Surface
I thought this replay was worth showing. Yes, it’s a maiden, but he was dominant in a testing race and in third was Hoo Ya Mal, who was runner up in the Derby earlier this year, so it’s turned out to be very good form, with around nine horses winning from this race.
Final Summary: He looks a very good horse and now has the Waller polish. He goes to the Cox Plate and commands respect with his form lines. It’s A1, so I think he will go into that race as one of the hardest to beat against Anamoe, and with rain forecast, he comes right into play.
Hoo Ya Mal
Breeding: Territories x Sensationally
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott
Weight: 53.5kg
Career Stats: 9: 2-3-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/2816m
Career Best Win: March Stakes, August 27 2022, Goodwood, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 1-3-2
Wet Track Stats: rack Stats: 3: 1-0-1
Short Summary: English Derby runner up that might be Fiorente 2.0. Run well in the race this year, come back and win it next year. But, given the lack of overall depth, why can’t he win it this year?
Key Overseas Replay: Gordon Stakes (2412m), July 28 2022, Goodwood, Good Surface
Thought this was a replay worth showing. On the line, Deauville Legend ran second and got him late, but it’s worth noting that Ryan Moore, who rode Hoo Ya Mal, lost his whip around 500m out, so no doubt in my mind that cost the horse second behind a star in New London. Form out of this race has been red hot with New London running second in the St Leger, Deauville Legend bolting up at York along with three other blackype winners.
Replay
Final Summary: Several months ago, I thought he was zero chance and just assumed the runner up finish in the Derby was a fluke given he was $151. But I think he’s going into this race as one of the leading contenders. That Gordon Stakes form line has been red hot, he won soon after and just couldn’t go with them in a pretty strong St Leger. He might be 6-12 months away, but I can’t let him go without having something on.
Loft
Breeding: Adlerflug x Labrice
Trainer: Marcel Weiss
Weight: 55.5kg
Career Stats: 12: 3-5-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2800m/3200m
Career Best Win: Belmont Gold Cup, June 10 2022, Belmont Park, Firm Surface
Dry Track Stats: 8: 2-3-2
Wet Track Stats: 4: 1-2-0
Short Summary: Another first Tuesday in November demolition for Ozzie and his mates?
Key Overseas Replay: Belmont Gold Cup (3200m), June 10 2022, Belmont Park, Firm Surface
This race was enough for Ozzie Kheir to get the band together, empty the ashtrays and purchase the horse for the Melbourne Cup. Visually, the win was brilliant and the change up speed when asked to go was sharp. The overall time was fast…the query being what he beat? He beat nothing, one horse being Outbox, a UK stayer who is a Listed/Open Handicap horse at best. 17 subsequent runs from the beaten brigade for one win, that win essentially being a midweek win at Gulfstream Park.
Final Summary: I want to pen him, but the three factors that keep him in the mix for me as a contender is the fact he’ll have no trouble with 3200m on a firm deck, likewise if there is give in the track. He gets James McDonald, the best rider in the world, and the other factor is Ozzie Kheir and his remarkable record at picking out good horses, the right horses.
Light Infantry
Breeding: Fast Company x Lights On Me
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eustace
Career Stats: 5: 2-2-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1210m/1408m
Career Best Win: Horris Hill, October 23 2021, Newbury, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 2: 1-0-0
Wet Track Stats: 3: 1-2-0
Short Summary: Last start second behind one of the better fillies in Europe…he’s one of the hardest to beat for the Golden Eagle.
Key Overseas Replay: Haras De Fresnay (1600m), August 14 2022, Deauville, Soft Surface
This run sort of came out of nowhere because he was just going it seemed but it was a clear career best, running a close second to a world class horse in Inspiral, comfortably beating State Of Rest, who wasn’t 100%, but still beat him by a space.
Final Summary: If he runs up to that effort at Deauville, he just about wins the Golden Eagle, because that is A1 form. But, will that run be on an island ala Verry Elleegant in the Melbourne Cup and he goes nowhere near that again? Brae, Ozzie and co know a good one when they see it. I am seriously respecting him, but I’d want a tick for him settling into Australia.
My Oberon
Breeding: Dubawi x My Titania
Trainer: Annabel Neasham
Career Stats: 16: 5-2-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1584m/1811m
Career Best Win: All Weather Championship, April 15 2022, Newcastle, Synthetic Surface
Dry Track Stats: 12: 5-1-2
Wet Track Stats: 4: 0-1-1
Short Summary: Quality horse that has Top Ranked look about him. Keen to see how he goes.
Key Overseas Replay: Dubai Turf (1800m), March 26 2022, Meydan, Good Surface
Far from disgraced in a hot race won by Lord North/Panthalassa, who shared the spoils. My Oberon was somewhat in restricted room but despite that he battled on really well in defeat in a race where the form has been strong to come out of it.
Final Summary: He has mainly done his racing at the mile, with his last 2000m run being the Prince Of Wales at Royal Ascot last year when fourth to a star in Love. He’s predominantly a 1400m/1600m horse. To me, he would be an ideal Gong/Hunter horse, but it looks like it will be Crystal Mile into the Champions Mile. He’ll measure up for sure IMO.
Rodrigo Diaz
Breeding: Golden Horn x Kitty Wells
Trainer: David Simcock
Career Stats: 17: 4-4-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2212m/2815m
Career Best Win: Handicap, June 5 2021, Doncaster, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 17: 4-4-2
Wet Track Stats: Untried
Short Summary: 2021 form, he can measure up. 2022 form, jury is out.
Key Overseas Replay: Ebor Handicap (2787m), August 20 2022, York, Good Surface
Just forget he went around. Dragged back from the wide gate and just never got involved, getting held up as well in an ugly watch if you were on. The knock is that it was a pretty weak edition of the Ebor.
Final Summary: I was keen on him in the Cup last year. But they didn’t send him across and waited 12 more months. His form this year isn’t as strong compared to last year. He goes around in the Geelong Cup and will run well there. I don’t think he’s going well enough to be a Melbourne Cup contender.
Star Of India
Breeding: Galileo x Shermeen
Trainer: Annabel Neasham
Career Stats: 5: 2-0-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/2076m
Career Best Win: Dee Stakes, May 5 2022, Chester, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 3: 1-0-0
Wet Track Stats: 2: 1-0-0
Short Summary: Lightly raced with good upside
Key Overseas Replay: Dee Stakes (2076m), May 5 2022, Chester, Soft Surface
This was the win that ensured he was kept safe in the Epsom Derby. He had a suck run behind the speed before Ryan Moore angled clear and got better as the race went on for a dominant win. The query is the form out of this race, as a whole, has been totally rank.
Final Summary: He failed in the Derby so it will be interesting to see what Annabel does with him. Holds a nomination for the Golden Eagle so will be fascinating to see how he goes. If he heads to the Golden Eagle, wouldn’t shock me at all if he ran well.
Welwal
Breeding: Shalaa x Cheriearch
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career Stats: 7: 3-2-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1500m/1600m
Career Best Win: Prix de Fontainebleu, April 16 2022, Longchamp, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 4: 3-1-0
Wet Track Stats: 3: 0-1-0
Short Summary: Has a bit of quality about him to be considering a legitimate Golden Eagle contender.
Key Overseas Replay: Prix de Fontainebleu (1600m), April 16 2022, Longchamp, Good Surface
This was a sharp win I thought. He had a suck run behind the speed before he found clear air and produced good change up speed to win and win well in solid time. Form out of this race has been strong with six subsequent winners coming out of it, so a big tick for this being a form reference.
Final Summary: He has since had a couple of runs. He was far from disgraced in the French 2000 Guineas before a down the track effort at Chantilly over 2100m, and that run confirmed that beyond 1600m is a bridge too far. Freshened up, he’s a proper 1600m horse and coming down under with the Waller polish, I think he’ll be right in the mix, provided the track is dry.
Without A Fight
Breeding: Teofilo x Khor Sheed
Trainer: Team Crisford
Weight: 55.5kg
Career Stats: 17: 7-3-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2000m/2800m
Career Best Win: Silver Cup, July 9 2022, York, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 12: 5-3-2
Wet Track Stats: 5: 2-0-2
Short Summary: Progressive stayer heading in the right direction.
Key Overseas Replay: Silver Cup (2800m), July 9 2022, York, Good Surface
Only took on two rivals but it was a commanding performance and continued a really strong 9-10 month patch of form for him. Took control 400m out and safely held them at bay to win with something in hand. The two rivals were nothing flash, but the win was impressive and arrogant.
Final Summary: He’s heading in the right direction. He dodged the Ebor and instead ran at Newmarket when a solid second at Listed level. He’s been very well placed throughout his career. The Melbourne Cup is light on quality compared to recent years, but he will need to improve significantly IMO.