Ten races will be run and won at Flemington this Saturday, headlined by the Newmarket Handicap (1200m). Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (12:05) Cirka Plate 1100m
2 Gallant Son (Bet Now: $SP.00) has class on his side and I’ll bank on that class getting him home. He resumes for Moody/Coleman, having not raced since the Coolmore Stud when outclassed, finishing down the track behind Switzerland. Given a good break, jumpout work has been strong and the class factor is too much I say.
5 Mystic Reign (Bet Now: $SP.00) looks a good mover for Grahame Begg. 2/2 to start her career, winning on debut in good style at Kyneton before going to The Valley when leading throughout and was dominant late, albeit it was a night where up/in was dynamite. Beware the unbeaten horse and has a good racing style.
3 Interest Point (Bet Now: $SP.00) is an improver for Briedoake/Jenkins. He comes through the Zeditave where I think a combination of track pattern and race shape wasn’t to his liking, as well as 1200m. Much better suited at 1100m and his best is good enough to be a threat.
Race 2. (12:35) Ottawa Stakes 1000m
1 Gin Spirit (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a beauty for Team Hayes. She was a dominant winner two weeks ago in the Cinderella at Morphettville, getting the beaut run in behind before angling wider for clear air and let down with nice change up speed to score. Hard to beat against this lot provided she holds her form.
5 Elsa Of Arendelle (Bet Now: $SP.00) is one of the key chances off the back of her debut over this trip at The Valley where she got off speed and worked home well enough without threatening behind all the way winner Eternal Darkness. Better for the run under the belt, she appeals.
7 Military Tycoon (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a well bred filly that resumes for Moody/Coleman. She hasn’t raced since her debut in the Maribyrnong when raw and new to the caper, finishing down the track behind Tycoon Star. Given a break and her trial win last week at Cranbourne was a beauty. Threat for sure.
Race 3. (13:10) Vale Michael Moroney (Bm84) 1100m
This race is all about 1 Street Of Dreams (Bet Now: $SP.00). If he’s ready to go, which it looks like he is, then good luck beating him. He He was a very nice horse in Singapore but is now with phillip Stokes. Three jumpout under the belt, and the last two has seen him go like a rocket. He looks very much ready for a first up assault, drawn the right part of the track…keen.
12 Don’t Hope Do (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a key threat off the back of his run at Caulfield a fortnight back when off speed, was there to threaten but just lacked the killer blow to finish the job when third to Winnasedge. He has run well enough down the straight before and this race, as a whole, isn’t overly deep.
14 Prinzerro (Bet Now: $SP.00) will likely land on speed and run a positive race. He ran a few weeks back at this track when leading and giving a good sight but just felt the pinch late behind Bossy Nic. If he gets some form of control near the front, he’ll run a beauty.
Race 4. (13:45) Shaftesbury Avenue Hcp 1400m
Great each way gamble for me via 8 My Khalifa (Bet Now: $SP.00). He was stunning given the race shape and set up when winning fresh, then chased a good speed last start over 1200m at Morphettville and stayed on really well in defeat behind Taunting. 1400m is ideal, hard fit, down in the weights…I’ve seen worse $51+ shots.
4 Aztec Ruler (Bet Now: $SP.00) has been up a little while and commands respect. He ran in the Elms a fortnight back where he got into a decent spot in transit and tried hard but just couldn’t quite get there behind Rise At Dawn. Only has to hold his form and he’ll be around the mark.
9 Communist (Bet Now: $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Team Freedman since contesting the Elms when first up. He got off speed and chasing from the outset, failing to get involved behind Rise At Dawn. Proven performer at a higher level and better for the run under the belt, I wouldn’t be dismissing him.
Race 5. (14:20) Mss Security Sires' Produce Stakes 1400m
3 Vinrock (Bet Now: $SP.00) takes beating for Matt Laurie after a debut win over 1200m at Pakenham where he led throughout and gave nothing else a look in, winning impressively, won by a space and ran decent time. 1400m looks no issue and is one of the hardest to beat.
12 Eden Rose (Bet Now: $SP.00) was a despised rank outsider when contesting the Blue Diamond but despite the $201 SP, I thought she ran very well in defeat, closing off nicely against the race shape behind Devil Night. Racing like 1400m suits and this is a very winnable race.
5 Brave Design (Bet Now: $SP.00) should be better for the debut run, which came a few weeks back in the Talindert. He got off speed and was chasing but kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat behind Tentyris/Shining Smile. Upside/improvement, he can win.
Race 6. (14:55) Australian Cup Prelude 2000m
Keen to be with 9 Berkshire Breeze (Bet Now: $SP.00). Market kept him quite safe in betting when resuming at Caulfield a few weeks ago but the ride was very negative I thought and he just never got involved behind Garachico but did keep on finding the line. Fitter, more positive ride, he takes beating.
6 Young Werther (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a beauty for Danny O’Brien that resumes. This guy had a solid enough Spring/Summer, which ended with a midfield effort in the Perth Cup in what was an end of prep run. He likes Flemington, he jumped out like a rocket recently and can sprint well fresh.
4 Etna Rosso (Bet Now: $SP.00) comes through the Deny Knowledge race from two weeks back at Caulfield. Race shape was totally against him but he did keep finding the line and was pretty good in defeat I thought the class mare. If the tempo is more genuine and he can settle closer, he’s dangerous.
Race 7. (15:30) All-Star Mile 1600m
1 Mr Brightside (Bet Now: $SP.00) does seem the most obvious. He just got there two weeks ago in the Futurity, getting the positive ride from Williams and despite being out of petrol tickets late, he had enough in hand to score. Love him up in trip and I think with a bunny to chase, he will be much better off.
4 Another Wil (Bet Now: $SP.00) has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat. He has been kept on ice since the CF Orr where he got 12/10 steer by Jamie Melham and in a driving go, he finished best to wear down Mr Brightside. Tick over jumpout was quite good, he loves Flemington…only runs well.
7 Atishu (Bet Now: $SP.00) has eyes on the Australian Cup but she is a big time performer at the mile. She resumed three weeks back in the Apollo where it was basically a barrier trial for her and she worked to the line well enough in defeat. Fitter and up in trip…doubt she wins but only runs well.
Race 8. (16:10) Kewney Stakes 1600m
1 Treasurethe Moment (Bet Now: $SP.00) just looks better than these. She resumed with an absolute bang two weeks ago in the Armanasco where she was ridden with intent and lobbed outside the speed. Once that eventuated, she was $1.01 and overs, winning comfortably. Fitter, up in trip…good luck beating her.
5 Sneaky Sunrise (Bet Now: $SP.00) has returned well and should appreciate a rise to 1600m after resuming over 1400m here in the Vanity where she was good late in restricted room when third to Cilacap. The rise in trip is ideal, she’s got more upside than most…a threat if the fav is off her game.
4 London’s Image (Bet Now: $SP.00) jumps straight to the mile after racing last Friday night in the Abel at The Valley where she was ridden with a sit…I dare say with eyes towards this race. Held up and found the line strongly late when clear. She’ll lead, roll, and give an almighty sight.
Race 9. (16:50) Newmarket Handicap 1200m
I think the value here is clearly with 14 Espionage (Bet Now: $SP.00). I thought he was massive in the Oakleigh Plate given he was four/five wide the trip yet he kept surging to the line. He is very well in at the weights, he had jumped out well down the straight, he’ll land near the front and 1200m looks ideal.
7 Growing Empire (Bet Now: $SP.00) has to be given another chance. He paraded like a skunk, he was big in condition…just everything went wrong for him in the Lightning so while on face value he was plain, I am going to be forgiving. But, I will say this is D Day for him. Contender or pretender. I am convinced he is top class but has the Spring busted him? We’ll know for sure one way or the other after this race.
8 Ostraka (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a big improver up to 1200m I say. He resumed two weeks back in the Oakleigh Plate where he was dragged to near last from the wide gate and pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial behind Jimmysstar. I think a straight run will be ideal for him and he can launch late.
Race 10. (17:30) Matron Stakes 1600m
Gee I am keen to be involved with 5 Wishlor Lass (Bet Now: $SP.00). Parade people said she was a tad big in condition prior to resuming in the Tressady and on top of that, it was a genuine Soft track, and she hates that. She finds a road here, she’s up in trip, can be ridden with more intent, upside, well weighted…very keen.
1 Molly Bloom (Bet Now: $SP.00) resumed in the Tressady when running second. She had the beaut run just off the speed and was there to win but first up, she couldn’t quite go with Wrote To Arataki. Fitter, firmer deck…draw is tricky but has to be respected.
2 Eternal Flame (Bet Now: $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. She comes through the Mannerism from two weeks back where she was chasing from a fair way out and while she was never a winning threat, she did stay on and was sound in defeat. Her best is good enough.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Ten Number 5 Wishlor Lass
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Street Of Dreams
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 8 My Khalifa
Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 5, 7, 8, 11, 14
Leg Four: 5
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