25/11/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne, Cranbourne Cup day

6 Desert Anthem (Bet Now:  $SP.00) brings far inferior form to others here, but he does look a very promising stayer that isn’t chewed up. He produced a brilliant finale to win his maiden at Mortlake last time, with the win having more merit given he missed the start. He’s a horse clearly heading in the right direction to be a Derby horse next prep and I think he can get there via a win here, with the rise in trip being perfect.

1 Warmonger (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the class of the field and class will carry him a long way. He ran on Cup Day over 1800m where he gave them a start and a beating, letting down with purpose and then showing good fight late to get the win. 2000m should be fine and off a Stakes win, he has to be rated as one of the leading chances.

4 Hydrogen Power (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has got a win on the board and he can go on with it. That win came over the mile at Ballarat where he looked gone 200m out given he was near a hot speed but he kept finding and in a slog to the line, he was strongest. The rise to 2000m, I think, should be okay, and off a win, commands respect.

2 Wiggum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a five start career and off his last start win, he is clearly the one to beat. His last start win was at Flemington on Cup Day over 1000m where he gave them a belting, going through his gears with purpose the final 200m to draw clear and win well. The query is 1200m but if it’s okay, then he is clearly the one they have to get past.

5 Peace Treaty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Freedman trained three year old that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since her debut at Ballarat back in May when giving them a start and a beating in a dominant display. Jumpout work has been solid and she should be strong at the end.

3 Jewel Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a track/distance winner from two back so he commands respect in that regard. He came back to 1000m on Cup Day at Flemington where he just found them a bit sharp and just couldn’t get involved behind impressive winner Wiggum. Back up to 1200m I think will be a positive and off the win the start prior, he’s in with a shout.

2 Frumos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is getting very close to D-Day for Chris Waller. She was a drifter in betting when racing over 1500m at Randwick where she got back in the run and did make up headway but she was quite one paced when initially asked for the effort so I am very forgiving of the run behind Loch Eagle. Think a drop back in trip/depth will suit and her best is clearly good enough.

4 Kazou (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will lead and prove hard to run down. This mare resumed at Randwick several weeks ago where she did plenty wrong when asked for the big effort but she had enough in hand, just, to beat Commemorative. The break between runs and rising in trip I find interesting but if she leads and is left alone, she’ll take running down.

7 Proscenium Arch (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented mare for Busuttin/Young that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since the QLD Oaks when down the track and not really running the trip out behind Amokura. Jumpout work has been encouraging and being trained on the track, you’d like to think she’s ready to go for a first up showing.

6 Haaracaine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is starting to put it together for Nick Ryan, winning two on the bounce. Latest win came on Bendigo Cup Day where it became a slog and in a survival of the fittest, he came out on top to win and win nicely. Not sure what upside there is left but I think he only has to run up to recent efforts to be around the mark IMO.

2 King’s Crossing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a lightly raced four year old that is showing promise for Danny O’Brien. He is several weeks between runs since winning over 2400m on Geelong Cup Day. It was a blanket finish but he got the job done in a close go, which followed an okay effort at Flemington. He seems to race best with fresh legs and strikes a winnable race.

11 Mogadishu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gapped them at this track/distance two back so with that in mind, I think he is in with a shout here. After the win at this track, he raced on Bendigo Cup Day where he was on speed and couldn’t sustain the run behind Haaracaine. Back to Cranbourne and with good weight relief, I wouldn’t be dismissing him.

3 Midnight Charm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Clayton Douglas trained gelding that has placed in both runs back from a spell, the latest run being three weeks ago at Mornington when attempting to lead throughout and giving a strong kick but he couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Valois. Good racing style and hard fit now, he’ll take running down.

4 Nasraawy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver at odds. I’d be very forgiving of the run at Seymour last time given he was wide no cover on speed for the trip and that early work just told late when finishing down the track behind Bews. He has home track advantage, he is suited at 1000m and with better luck in running, he can win without surprising.

13 Pink Beau Ty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will likely be spotting them a start but he should be strong at the end. He ran in the Rey Magnerio race from two weeks back where he got back in the ruck and although he was safely held, never a winning threat, he stuck on well enough in defeat I thought. If he is within range on the turn, he has the finale to be dangerous.

1 Bel Air (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning for Team Freedman. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since Sep 27 at Bendigo when just off the speed and held up before getting clear and finishing off nicely when second to Stripped Back. The break between runs I find interesting but he has a touch of quality about him and strikes a winnable race.

11 Free Willed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy mare for Cindy Alderson that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since June 10 at Sandown when close up in defeat when fourth to Hazel Baby, beaten under a length in a tidy effort. Been given a good break and with a couple of jumpouts under the belt, the grounding is there and with home track advantage, watch the market.

14 Russian Benefits (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an honest mare for Michael Mehegan that should be around the mark. They rode her with a sit at The Valley last time and she worked to the line strongly but couldn’t quite get there when second to She Daresthe Devil. Gets Craig Williams aboard and down in the weights, can settle handy, she’s a must for exotics.

1 Gregolimo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is fourth up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He should have won at Flemington on Oaks Day but he threw the race away, wanting to lay in under pressure, then when Shinn straightened him out, he went out the other way and just did everything wrong. If he runs straight, puts it all together, he is the likely winner.

3 Holymanz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly go on with it. He got a 12/10 from Clark to win on Oaks Day at Flemington, finishing best and was too strong late for a very wayward Gregolimo. He had been teasing to win this time in and now that he has, he can certainly win again. Leading contender.

9 Fire Glo Too (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up forever it seems like but he is holding his form really well. He ran two weeks back over this trip at Flemington and kept finding the line from off the speed in a tidy effort behind surprise winner Little Mix. There is depth to this line up so while I doubt he wins, he can run top four without surprising.

2 Generation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very hard horse to catch but I do feel this sort of race is within reach for him. He ran on Oaks Day down the straight at Flemington where he was near the speed throughout and battled away well enough in defeat when a close up fourth to Najem Suhail. He’s not a horse you can back with a great deal of confidence but this race is very much on the thin side IMO.

1 Jigsaw (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won this race last year and looks hard to beat to repeat the dose. He comes through the Manikato at The Valley when outside the speed throughout and just lacked the class/quality to go with Imperatriz late in the piece. That form is clearly A1 for a race like, he has home track advantage and is a proven weight carrier.

7 Shalaman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage and is down in the weights to command some level of respect. He ran on Cox Plate Day in the 1000m open sprint and was solid in defeat albeit had his chance behind Ashford Street. Trained on the track and with an on speed racing style, he’s dangerous to pinch a first four spot at a likely decent price.

9 Foxy Cleopatra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a great bet here IMO. Busuttin/Young trained mare that resumed on Cup Day over 1400m and she was one of the eye catchers of the meeting, closing off with real purpose late to run second to Skew Wiff, who of course came out and ran super in the Rupert Clarke last Saturday, so the form is A1. Clearly set for this day being trained on the track, she’s the bet for me here.

3 Here To Shock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous against these. Plain run in the Toorak but he bounced back at Flemington three weeks ago when near the speed and fought on strongly in defeat when a close up fifth to Cause For Concern. Back up to 1600m should be no issue for him and if there is petrol left in the tank, he’ll take beating against these.

10 Euphoric (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Greg Eurell and rates as one of the leading contenders. Resumed with a bang on Geelong Cup Day before going to the Country Final on Oaks Day and finished off strongly when a narrow second to Picaroon. He is trained on the track and this race, as a whole, isn’t overly deep, so he appeals as a key chance.

5 Jimmysstar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could be an absolute jet. Yes, kissed on the date with a 12/10 ride by Shinn but gee the change up speed he produced when letting down was something else and the win on Bendigo Cup Day was enormous. He is destined for better races than this IMO and with natural improvement, up to 1600m, could be a case of good luck beating him.

12 The Maggstar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the interesting runner. On paper, she was no chance really in the Subzero on Cup Day at Flemington but nobody told the mare that because she came with a brilliant finale late to win and beat some quality gallopers, a field which had far more depth than what she faces here. If she runs up to that effort here, she’ll be around the mark.

14 Edith (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Moody/Coleman trained mare that resumes. Her last run was March 10 at Pakenham over 2000m when producing an end of prep run when down the track behind Sing For Peace. First up at 1500m signals some level of intent and the jumpout work has been encouraging.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 5 Jimmysstar

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Gregolimo

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 6 Desert Anthem

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 1, 3, 9, 10

Leg Four: 5

$50 Investment = 1250% of the dividend if successful.

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