1/1/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Chester Manifold Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

Chester Manifold Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Chester Manifold Stakes

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6 Latizia (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) has been well educated for start one with a stack of jumpouts over a couple of preps and I think that grounding will hold her in good stead. Latest jumpout came over 800m at Cranbourne when outside the leader and really liked the way she went about her business in a good piece of work, winning comfortably in good time. She’ll do me.

3 Hoops (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) creates interest. Danny O’Brien trained filly that from what I can see has only had the one jumpout when unnamed but looked to move well behind the speed and was trucking when clear late. Williams rode in that jumpout and he sticks with her here.

5 Lambda (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Snitzel for Team Hawkes that is on debut. She jumped out at Werribee where she looked to crab on the home turn but once she balanced up, she lengthened nicely and I thought it was a good gallop from her when a narrow third. Have to respect the stable and their juveniles.

Matthew De Kock in a pre race chat said that 8 Lady D’Oro (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) was using the 1200m race from a fortnight back here as a prep run for this. The prep run was a beauty, loving the way she closed off her race from behind the pack when fourth. Is a second up winner and up to 1400m, she’ll take beating.

4 Sweet Karolina (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) should love the rise to 1400m. Team Corstens trained mare that resumed over 1200m at The Valley where she looked to be in a tricky spot but Olly weaved some magic, got her clear air and the mare savaged the line late to win. Should get three/four wide cover from the gate and be strong at the end.

9 Sensationalisation (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a Price/Kent trained mare that resumes. She showed really good promise early on in her career but her form had tapered off towards the end of last season. Recent jumpout was encouraging though and her best is clearly good enough.

3 Dirty Deeds (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in really good order and should take beating here. Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago and he was a real eye catcher from near last in the run when third to impressive winner Gentleman Roy. Third up now, so should just about be at peak fitness and up to the mile, he appeals big time.

7 Vardani (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) has found form and commands respect. He was smashed in betting last time out at Warrnambool and if you took the overs, he wasn’t getting beat from the 600m mark and gave them an absolute spanking. You’d like to think he can go on with it now.

6 New King (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) would blitz these if he found anything near his best form. Has teased to show it this time in but as soon as you have that thought, he sucks you and fails. Easily the weakest race he has contested in some time and stable should always be respected when they bring them to Melbourne.

2 Squid Game (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) is 2/2 to start his career and confident he can make it three on the bounce. The second win came over 1200m here and what was impressive was his change up speed when asked by Mick Dee, then knuckling down strongly when the race was there to be won. Back to 1100m is okay and he might well be better than this lot.

9 Spirit Of Pepin (Bet Now: $61.00 TOP ODDS) is racing well for the Griffiths/De Kock camp. Impressive maiden win two back at Warrnambool before going to Sandown where he had little luck in the straight but was never beating impressive winner Viviane. I think the rise to 1100m suits and hopefully gets clear air from the outset.

6 Rock Artist (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) has a bit of quality on his side to give this a shake. Significant betting drift for him first up at Sandown as the money arrived for Viviane and the market knew with that horse bolting up. Rock Artist sat on speed and battled on well for second. Fitter and up in trip, he can threaten.

2 Bermadez (Bet Now: $1.85) is three weeks between runs for Michael Moroney since racing over 1400m here where he did plenty of work to get on speed but despite that, he tried hard and was only beaten off late by a quality mare, Lighthouse. Fitter and up to the mile, he’ll take beating.

4 High ‘N’ Dry (Bet Now: $4.60) has found winning form and confident he can go on with it. Looked his race two week ago at this track/distance and he wore them down late under a lovely steer from Matty Cartwright. All of his runs this time in have been super and last start confirmed it. Hard to beat.

10 Legionnaire (Bet Now: $17.00) is sneaky flying I feel. He comes through the High ‘N’ Dry race from two weeks back at this track/distance and I think he should have finished closer. Just lost momentum at a crucial stage nearer the inside and was good in defeat. Knockout chance with the rub of the green.

3 Convict Sam (Bet Now: $7.00) is heading in the right direction for Archie Alexander. Looking to make it three wins on the bounce. Last start win was 1800m at Sandown on the Hillside track and what I liked was the ticker he showed. He was there to be run down but in the end, he drew clear and was impressive. Good test here, but confident he measures up.

2 Brasada (Bet Now: $7.00) is flying for Team Corstens. Can make a strong case to say he should have won two back at Sandown. Then went to the mile here where he was given a peach by Olly and drove hard late to get the job done. Hard to knock the way he’s racing and is hard to beat here.

1 Irish Butterfly (Bet Now: $5.00) has come back in super order for Henry Dwyer. Real eye catcher first up on Ballarat Cup Day before going to 1800m here where he got a mile out of his ground but loved the way he closed off late behind Five Kingdom. Hard fit now and up to 2000m, he appeals big time.

The Maher/Eustace camp are re-writing history when it comes to training stayers. Once upon a time you wouldn’t dare back a horse in a 2400m+ race off a six week or so break, but voila, 2 Smokin’ Romans (Bet Now: $2.20) bolted up in the Pakenham Cup. Just has to hold his form and he’s the winner.

5 Skelm (Bet Now: $5.50) is hard to beat here. Initiative from Poy and the lack of initiative from those behind was the difference between winning and losing when bolting up two weeks ago over 2600m here. He led, got absolute control and gave nothing else a look in. Off that effort, 2800m is no issue and when he does find winning form, he holds it.

6 High Emocean (Bet Now: $4.80) looks as if she’s been set for this race. Had a freshen up after the St Leger when racing here a fortnight back and worked to the line pretty well, but the race shape was suited to one horse, Skelm. Hoping for a more aggressive steer on this mare and if that eventuates, she’ll take beating.

9 Lighthouse (Bet Now: $2.40) has done nothing wrong since arriving from America and I think can confirm that with a Stakes win here. Lovely ride from Cartwright saw her win at this track/distance last time out, and she was strong to the line, so the 1400m box is ticked and we see so often with these Maher/Eustace runners, once they find form, they hold it.

2 Yulong January (Bet Now: $10.00) has to be given another chance. He was just too bad to be true first up at Pakenham. The interesting thing about the run was that he was absolutely smashed in betting to win, with the market suggesting he was there to dominate. Fab record at the Flemington 1400m, and forgive a good horse for one poor run.

12 Not To Be Mist (Bet Now: $10.00) is a former WA galloper for Nick Ryan that hadn’t done a great deal since coming across but that all changed two weeks back when wearing them down from off the speed and nailing It’sourtime on the line. That was his first run since Cup Day so fitter and up in trip looks a good set up.

10 Pioneer River (Bet Now: $3.20) is three weeks between runs since a dominant win down the straight here, continuing his liking for this course. Put into the right spot under Josh Richards and he was always in control. Likely draws the right part of the track and gets in well after the claim.

4 Rock Prophet (Bet Now: $13.00) has an ordinary racing pattern but he loves the straight course and brings the best form, that form being the Kensington Stakes from three weeks ago over 1000m when producing some of the best late splits of the meeting behind Mileva. Hopefully can be within range 400m out and if so, he’ll be really hard to hold out.

9 Music Addition (Bet Now: $51.00) sums up the form of the stable. Terrible. But, his best is certainly good enough to be around the mark. Near the speed at Pakenham and dropped out late, finishing down the track behind the heavily backed Defiant Dancer. I think the straight track will suit and his tick over trial win was sharp. I think he’s one for multiples.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Smokin’ Romans

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Squid Game

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 8 Lady D’Oro

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 11

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 2, 9

Leg Four: 1, 4, 9, 10, 12

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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