If recent history is anything to go by, Saturday’s Group Two Villiers Stakes can be narrowed down to three chances.
Nine of the past 11 horses on the Villiers’ honour roll have won at their previous start, including the past four in a row.
In fact, of the past 25 winners only one horse, Arletty in 1997, has finished out of the top five at its previous start and gone on to snare the 1600m contest.
The statistics suggest the Villiers is won by in-form horses and with Festival Stakes winner Malavio missing through injury, it leaves just three last-start victors to tackle the race.
A full field of 18 plus one emergency was paid up for on Wednesday with Goulburn Cup winner Kinnersley, the Peter Moody-trained Shout Out Loud and former Kiwi mare Holy Moly the only contenders with a one beside their names.
The trio had mixed fortunes at the barrier draw, however, with Shout Out Loud (one) and Holy Moly (three) both faring well while Kinnersley drew awkwardly in 13.
Hawkesbury Cup winner Darci Be Good came up with 17, something his trainer Bede Murray said was not ideal at Warwick Farm.
Usually run at Randwick, the Villiers is being held at Warwick Farm for the second consecutive year due to the major reconstruction work at headquarters.
“It’s a blow to any horse’s chances, especially at Warwick Farm with a big field,” Murray said.
“I’ve always thought you’ve got to draw a good barrier at Warwick Farm, otherwise you’ve got to work very hard or have a bit on them.
“We will just have to see how the race pans out.”
Murray would be buoyed by the fact the Ron Quinton-trained Monton bucked the trend by overcoming gate 15 to win impressively last year.
He will be back to defend his title and has a much kinder draw this time around in four.
Gai Waterhouse trained the two minor placegetters in last year’s Villiers and will look to Kinnersley to go one better on Saturday.
A $12 chance in opening markets, Kinnersley is proven at a mile and beyond and the Goulburn Cup form has since been franked by Scream Machine who has won his two subsequent runs in town.
TAB fixed odds have installed Galah the $6 favourite in an open betting race, ahead of Cabernet and Monton who are $8.50 apiece.
