Hi punters we had a huge weekending of racing at Caulfield with many of the super stars of Australian turf competing for Group glory.
The main race of the day was the time honoured Caulfield Guineas where the unbeaten colt Pierro after 8 straight wins was sent out the shortest priced favourite in the history of race at $1.30. As the race turned out the much publicized brother to champion Black Caviar in All Too Hard ran down a tiring Pierro on the line.
Why?
As mention the other week we fitness rated Pierro on 100% Super Fit before his impressive Moonee Valley win, and previously we rated All To Hard 100% Super Fit before his last start
shorter race failure.
Today in the Guineas Pierro was less fitness on 98% (down 2 lengths) mainly in his nutritional levels, but also in fitness and that is why Pierro weakened over the concluding 150 metres whereas All To Hard maintained his 100% super fit rating to run over the top of him.
We often talk about the one per cents in sports like football, golf, cricket and so forth; well in racing 2% fitness variation is 2 lengths in a major Group 1 race and that is why Pierro lost.
The stud value of this 2% fitness advantage All To Hard had can now be measured in the tens of millions of dollars later on.
More Joyous on only 97% fit struggled most of the race because of her nutritional and fitness levels are down, she needs to get fitter to win the Cox Plate. Sincero on 100% super fit, again after 4 starts over the 2000 meters failed to win. He just cannot go this distance in in elite company. Elite Elle as mentioned previously continues to lose strength factors and that is why the horse is stopping over the last 150 metres, I think it needs a spell.
Smokin’ Joey 97% fit is always well fancied by punters and this horse is now showing a pattern in performances = fitness where previously like Durrbridge, American, Elite Falls, Secunda and a few others for some strange reason they perform unplaced on lower that 99% super fit. When they peak in 100% fitness, they feel ready to run like the wind and perform like champions. Hard to catch if you do not know their fitness levels before a race. A real nightmare for the owners and trainers.
Cox plate fancied horse Ocean Park on 98% won impressively again and my only negative on this horse is the Cox plate’s WFA scale and he will be the smallest horse in the race and to me, that’s a big concern.
Black Bookers:
Mahisara on 97% second up has a nice balanced fitness chart and can win next start as the same with Hoss Amor on 97% fit 2nd up, both are nice horses and will be fitter with the 2nd up blues run under their belt.
My smokey Illo on 97% fit was dropped back in distance by the master Bart Cummings and as value odds he is ready for a middle distance performance in your exotics, patience is a
virtue here.
Buffering is a massive quality type horse and on 97% fit 2 nd up won again, but he still has 3 lengths in the tank and I cannot see much around beating him at the moment.
Good luck.
By James Conway 28point8.com
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