A group of even three-year-olds are out to turn back one Kiwi raider in tomorrow’s Group 1 Victoria Derby. And after Saturday’s Moonee Valley meeting that challenge has surely become a little easier.
It’s A Dundeel has always been at the top of Luxbet Derby betting after beating Proisir in the Spring Champion Stakes. Despite the pint-sized NZ colt putting a string of wins together, punters feared he was getting too short, at one stage sneaking into odds-on!
Then it went back into the “melting pot” when he circled the field off a slow pace at the Valley but couldn’t run down the bigger Super Cool who exploded off the camber bend. Super Cool had put the writing on the wall when an unlucky second on Thousand Guineas Day. He’s a long-striding type and must be rated a genuine chance despite drawing wide in 11. It’s A Dundeel has drawn alongside in 10, yet both horses will naturally drift back so the bar riers should have little consequence.
In fact, It’s A Dundeel is better served away from the fence. He likes to get rolling a long way from home, and he’ll love switching from the tight Valley circuit to the sweeping stretches of Flemington. Remember, he took the entire Randwick straight to overhaul Proisir, and the way he raced on Saturday when over-striding on his “wrong” leg, this track and trip should be perfect! It’s A Dundeel drifted from $2.00 out to $2.70 after his first defeat, and is now out to $2.90 on Luxbet.
Outside of those two, I’m expecting a big run from the improving Honorius ($7.00). He’s drawn nicely in two, and can sustain a long fighting effort over a more suitable trip. Hvasstan, also solid around $7.00, is another who comes through similar form, and he can also run out a strong 2500m from a middle gate.
My Derby Tips: 1. It’s A Dundeel; 2. Super Cool; 3. Honorius
My MacKinnon Tips: 1. Ocean Park; 2. Alcopop 3. Glass Harmonium
Meanwhile, punters on Luxbet have launched a concerted bid to cash in on giant odds about a Melbourne Cup runner via the ballot-free Group 3 Lexus winner on Saturday!
A sharp punter bet $1,000.00 each-way on lightweight hope Dare To Dream in the Cup to win nearly $200K before it tries to qualify in the Lexus. Another punter had $500.00 each-way on Kellini at $151.00 to win near $100k in the Cup as well as $3,000.00 at $11.00 to land the Lexus and make the Cup field. If either gets up on Saturday, they will sneak into the Cup with no weight and at a price many times over its final field Tuesday price!”
Then there was an assault on the Williams/Hickmott horses. Bets of $500.00 on both Tanby and Excluded at $126.00 in the Cup before they line up in the Lexus. A bet also arrived of $10K at $31.00 on Mourayan to win the Cup, forcing his price into $21.00!
It’s a tall order though for the locals hoping to win the Lexus to get a start on Tuesday. UK stayer and Geelong Cup winner Gatewood has been heavily backed from an opening $3.20 into $2.90. Scores of punters have also taken the $26.00 about Gatewood in the Cup.
Meanwhile the betting war is on between Sydney fillies Snitzerland and Nechita ahead of the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, with a client betting $10,000.0 on Nechita at $3.80! “She’s taken over from multiple winner Snitzerland as a $3.60 favourite, while Sizzling has eased from $4.40 out to $4.60! One punter has had $2K at $10.65 on a Snitzerland-It’s A Dundeel double. Another has gone wide in the Coolmore betting $2K at $21.00 on Saturday’s Moonee Valley winner Hidden Warrior,” Evans said.
Here’s a snap-shot how I see the big day at Flemington:
MY DERBY TIP: IT’S A DUNDEEL: Not concerned by his failure last start first time around the Valley. Much better suited this track and in bigger field where the pressure will come on much further out. Just wants a trail home from the 800m to finish over the top.
MY BEST BET: DEAR DEMI (R3 Melb): Class mare who had no luck in the straight at a vital time when fighting second in the Thousand Guineas. Suited now to 2000m and also on a bigger track, and the jockey is hungry!
MY BEST VALUE: SNITZERLAND (R4 Melb): While she’s not a fancy price, will probably continue to get out if the money keeps coming for Nechita. Proved again last start she always finds the line, and suited down the straight course.
MY BEST LAY: HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME (R8 Melb): Flying at the moment and the one to beat , but rises 2.5kg from Caulfield win, meets a much better field and first time down the Flemington straight is way too short!
BEST BACKED: STREAMA (R7 Melb): Top mare and dominant winner over 1400m last start, and drops 1kg stepping to the mile. Punters have charged in backing her from an opening $3.40 into $3.00, and she’s destined to jump much shorter.
NEIL’S FLEMINGTON FLYER:
R9 4. FAWKNER: Given a month between runs after dominant win here over same trip. Always races well on the fresh side, and drops 2.5kg from that run!
