‘Sepoy’ the $1.60 favourite for Saturday’s feature race, the Group 1 Blue Diamond, may look to be unbeatable, but as in all 2 year old racing this is far from the truth.
‘Sepoy’ has demolished his rivals at his last two starts, and has looked as professional as any juvenile in recent history, hence starting a heavy favourite for the race. But betting on 2 year old racing is fraught with danger, as often punters get carried away with the media hype surrounding one individual horse – and take their eye off the ball with the problems surrounding these youngsters.
Because these young horses run on fear and adrenalin, it is nearly impossible to predict how they will react to certain situations in big races. Whether it be running through a small opening, or coming off of opponents heels in the final metres, uncertainty certainly play’s it’s role, and the jockey becomes of vital importance in these tight situation.
Keep in mind the affect a new jockey, Kerrin McEvoy, will have on the horse. Mark Zahra has ridden the horse at every start and knows all of the quirks the colt may or may not have. Come Saturday when McEvoy asks for one final effort of Sepoy, will the colt notice a difference in his hands, in his riding style? It is impossible to know.
One major factor in the performance of these juveniles is shin soreness, as it has no boundaries and can pull up the heavily backed favourite or the despised outsider of the field.
Whilst it regularly affects horses as old as four or five, shin soreness is far more prevalent in a 2 year old horse, as that young horse’s bones are still developing.
When shin sore, a youngster will run like a Camel.
Shin soreness is, in reality, a hairline fracture of the cannon bone, so it’s quite a serious injury – yet it is a regular occurrence in the 2 year old – and some of the best 2 year old’s in the country have been beaten at long odds on, simply through shin soreness.
Punters need to be aware that this problem exists – as it’s a silent murderer of your money, as there is no visible way for the poor hapless punter to know the horse is shin sore before it enters the barrier.
One final thought before departing with your hard-earned on Saturday. Remember the Blue Diamond two years ago and a colt by the name of ‘Real Saga’.
The most bombproof juvenile in the country appeared to be Real Saga, the horse who had it all; a turn of foot, composure under pressure and courage. After dominating the lead up races in Melbourne and Sydney, Real Saga didn’t win either the Blue Diamond or the Golden Slipper. He was clearly the best racehorse, but problems in both races lead to him losing, and the money of the nation washed away.
I’m not saying it is impossible for Sepoy to win the Blue Diamond on Saturday, as he may prove to be the superstar of this year. But taking the short odds of $1.60 come race day seems imprudent.
Remember, no matter what the media say, there is no such thing as a certainty in racing.
Written by Isaac Chaplin
