21/3/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Perth Stakes day

The Karrakatta Plate picture will become clearer at Ascot this Saturday with the Perth Stakes and Gimcrack Stakes both being key lead ups towards the premier 2YO race in WA. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out sixteen for the entire circuit.

Hard to get away from 3 Media Baron (Bet Now: $1.75). Gee he was massive in winning over the mile here last Saturday. Was spotting them a decent start on the turn and forced widest, but surged hard late to claim a fab win, coming back in trip as well. Now back up to 1800m with Harvey back in the saddle, he’ll take a power of beating.

6 Push To Pass (Bet Now: $7.00) is an absolute marvel for Ashley Maley that has won his past two. Two back produced a brilliant finale to win over 1400m at Geraldton before going up to 2000m in the Esperance Cup and again attacked the line with purpose to win, beating Media Baron. Think he’s a definite threat against these.

1 Touch Of Silver (Bet Now: $11.00) should be suited up to 1800m. He ran over the mile here two weeks ago when back near last in the run and while he was never really a winning threat, he did make up ground very late, looking like a horse that wants further. He gets that here, has upside and a great track/distance record.

5 Bee Quick (Bet Now: $3.20) is on the seven day back up for Dion Luciani after racing at this track/distance last Saturday…well, I say racing, but really, it was a barrier trial. Blocked for the entire straight and seemingly had plenty up the sleeve in a luckless effort behind Sherpa Lass. Better luck this time around and she should go close to winning.

9 Wakan Tanka (Bet Now: $9.50) is knocking on the door to win a race and I think he gets a chance here. Admittedly his winning strike rate is terrible but he hasn’t been too far away of late. Was coming back in trip when racing over 1100m here two weeks ago and worked to the line pretty well behind the in form Bedouin Belle. Back up to 1200m, he’s a live threat.

6 Firesale (Bet Now: $10.00) is the unknown. Brett Pope trained gelding who has been hit and miss this prep, mostly miss, but his best is good enough to be around the mark. Hasn’t raced since finishing down the track at Pinjarra behind Playing Marika, but he did trial up really well to prepare for his return to the track, so keen to see how he goes.

1 Laverrod (Bet Now: $1.60) is a very smart customer for Sean Casey that was backed as if unbeatable when resuming over 1000m here two weeks ago and when he eventually got clear, gee he put them away and spanked them with a fair amount of arrogance. No drama with 1200m. Just a little query the wide gate.

3 Special Choice (Bet Now: $4.20) is third up from a break so she should be close to peak fitness. Thought she was very good from the back first up when second to Sophie’s Song before racing over 1400m here two weeks ago and was awful behind King Blitz. Back to her own age and back to 1200m with Pike on, she’s a key chance.

4 Comes A Time (Bet Now: $9.00) can fill a minor spot. Is racing quite honestly at the moment and comes here off the back of a third to Laverrod in that race mentioned above from two weeks ago. He was back near last in the run and never really a winning threat, but didn’t mind the way he found the line late to claim third. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll be a definite first three contender.

7 Bedouin Belle (Bet Now: $4.40) can repeat the dose from last start and win again. Looked a good thing on paper when racing at this track/distance two weeks ago and once she was able to hold a good spot just off the speed, it was a matter of getting clear air, and she got it, dashing away late. Hard to get away from her here.

Giving serious respect to 8 Celebrity Queen (Bet Now: $1.70). Classy first up win at Pinjarra before racing over 1200m here a few weeks ago and really, it was a barrier trial for her. Had plenty to offer but just didn’t get clear at any stage and should have gone close to winning behind Tommy Blue. Should get clear air from the outset this time around and prove hard to beat.

2 Sweet Dreamin’ (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Holly Locke trained gelding that returns to racing after an injury scare post his last start effort at Pinjarra when keen in the run and his bad manners cost him the win. Speaking to Holly after the race, they were concerned that he might have done a tendon, but thankfully all is well with him and if he holds his form, he’s right in the mix.

The big fish to fry is in a few weeks with the Karrakatta Plate but I think 1 Gemma’s Son (Bet Now: $1.28) can remain unbeaten. Hasn’t raced since taking out the Magic Millions at Pinjarra and kept up his unbeaten start to the career. Hasn’t been sighted since, but has class/quality and really, at set weights, clearly the one to beat.

2 Brooklyn Pier (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Magnus colt for Neville Parnham that has been kept on ice for the Karrakatta since winning impressively here on debut back on January 18 when well tried and justifying the support. Kept up to the mark with a trial win over 400m at Belmont and should get a lovely run from the barrier. Knockout chance.

Sean Casey had the well performed Dom To Shoot nominated for this race but goes with a sole in the first starter 5 Charleton Eddie (Bet Now: $8.50), a son of Shooting To Win. Comes here off the back of a trial win over 400m at Belmont on Monday. Hard to get a proper guide on those short course trials, but I always respect this stable with their first starters.

Think with Pike on, 2 American Choice (Bet Now: $2.80) can bounce back into the winners list. Resumed two weeks ago in the Supremacy and really, if you were on, you’d feel hard done by. No real luck in the straight at a vital stage before eventually getting clear and charging late to just miss out on picking up Starfield Impact. With fitness under the belt with Pike to steer, she’s the one for me.

1 Starfield Impact (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Mike Santich trained filly that was outstanding in winning the Supremacy two weeks ago. She was wide no cover throughout and was there to be run down, but gee she showed some good ticker when challenged and kept finding for a very impressive win. Better luck this time around, she can win again, even with the weight rise.

4 Our Danni (Bet Now: $8.00) can bounce back here. Luke Fernie trains this filly, who I was quite keen on in the Supremacy, but she got kicked pre race, was passed fit to run and of course duly ran a shocker in defeat as a well supported favourite. Has been beaten in both runs back from a break, but I think there have been excuses each time. She can win if she’s right.

2 Tom Melbourne… (Bet Now: $6.00) call me stupid. But he’s the good thing on the program. Tom is getting some decent sun on his back under the care of Lindsey Smith and judging off the way he trialled, he looks to be flying. Loved the way he closed off in the trial under a really good hold and easily could have won the trial if Johnston-Porter sneezed. He’s ready to rock and roll.

6 Harry Thomas (Bet Now: $7.00) is an absolute beauty for Ross Price that just doesn’t know how to run a bad race it seems. He finally got things to suit on speed when racing here two weeks ago and he took full advantage, leading throughout to win well. Looks to get a good run in transit, he’s honest…tries hard…is he one dimensional?

Looks to be well and truly D-Day for 1 Tellem We’re Comin (Bet Now: $3.70). Was run of his legs first up in the Pinjarra Classic before contesting the Bunbury Stakes where I thought Pike gave him every chance but he failed to fire. He’s third up now, so should be at peak fitness and off his form in the Spring, he’d be beating these. Just needs to produce it now.

3 Regal Counsel (Bet Now: $8.00) looks one of the better bets on the card. Peter Fernie trains this four year old, who was three wide with cover when resuming over 1200m here three weeks ago before angling wider and despite laying in, he was far too good for his rivals. The second up form is misleading. Two of the runs were on wet ground and the other was in the Fairetha behind The Velvet King. Natural improvement, think he wins again.

9 Sophie’s Song (Bet Now: $11.00) is on the seven day back up for Simon Miller after racing over this track/distance last Saturday when getting a good run on speed before taking the lead and looking home, only to be bloused nearer the inside by Festival Miss. Gets good weight relief for this, lands near the front and will try hard.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for the Simon Miller trained 7 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $27.00). Ran over 1200m here two weeks ago off a five week freshen up and just looked like he needed the run behind the above average galloper Red Can Man. Draws wide, but has early toe, and the claim for Chris Graham certainly helps.

If 4 Adornment (Bet Now: $7.00) is going any good, I think she’s clearly the horse to beat here. Two runs back from a long spell for this mare. Caught the eye first up before racing over 1800m here and just grinding away without being a threat. Gets firmer footing this time around, close to peak fitness and Pike is back on. If she’s going any good, which I think she is, she’ll win.

7 Black Shadow (Bet Now: $5.50) is a little while between runs, but I think he gets a really good chance here. Ran over 2100m here two weeks ago when specked at decent odds and ran accordingly when a closing third to Paddy’s Shadow. He’ll do no work from gate one and can sit that pair or two closer in the run. He’ll take some beating if that eventuates.

2 Inject The Venom (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Peter Fernie trained stayer who comes through the Paddy’s Shadow race from two weeks ago. He had a good run in transit and loomed to win but couldn’t quite finish it off, settling for a close up second. He’s the sort of horse that once he finds positive form, he holds it, so has to be respected.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Tom Melbourne

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 4 Adornment

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Regal Counsel

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 7, 9

Leg Four: 4

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